Skip to main content
Paducah-Cape Girard-Harsbg

Paducah-Cape Girard-Harsbg

Latest: 2024↓ R+2.8 vs 2020

Safe Republican — 934K residents — 43 counties

Ask HistorianOpen in ExploreCompareShare image

  • TV HOMES

    388K

  • MARKET RANK

    #81

  • COUNTIES

    43

  • PRES MARGIN

    R+50.2

Place Story

What defines Paducah-Cape Girard-Harsbg

Methodology

Constituent Counties

Open in Cartographer
Similarity Explorer

Similar media markets

Nearest neighbors matched on the same place-page feature set used across the dossier system.
8 visible matches
Constituent Geography

Counties in Paducah-Cape Girard-Harsbg

2024 presidential results across the counties that make up this geography.
Sort:
CountyPop.MarginDemRepTotalShare
Cape Girardeau83K
R+46.5
10,56129,31540,3539.3%
McCracken68K
R+34.9
10,19121,34931,9477.4%
Williamson67K
R+38.7
9,89022,68633,0687.6%
Jackson53K
D+3.5
11,39410,61422,4655.2%
Butler42K
R+63.8
3,16014,54917,8604.1%
Calloway38K
R+37.9
5,11111,53916,9453.9%
Scott38K
R+58.9
3,52513,78617,4214.0%
Franklin37K
R+50.5
4,25713,20017,6924.1%
Graves37K
R+61.6
3,10513,37816,6783.8%
Jefferson37K
R+47.7
4,24012,18916,6623.8%
Weakley33K
R+58.4
2,72510,54113,3943.1%
Marshall32K
R+56.7
3,70013,67717,6024.0%
Obion30K
R+64.9
2,22110,59612,9003.0%
Stoddard28K
R+73.9
1,73611,78313,5993.1%
Dunklin27K
R+61.8
1,8858,09610,0512.3%
Saline23K
R+49.0
2,6347,83010,6052.4%
Perry21K
R+51.9
2,1466,9499,2482.1%
Perry19K
R+63.4
1,7577,9869,8242.3%
Union17K
R+43.2
2,2855,8378,2261.9%
New Madrid16K
R+53.5
1,5615,2036,8111.6%
Massac14K
R+48.8
1,6834,9396,6761.5%
Johnson13K
R+58.3
1,2414,7986,1031.4%
Madison13K
R+64.9
9864,7215,7531.3%
Caldwell13K
R+58.2
1,2564,8606,1881.4%
Mississippi12K
R+53.7
1,0153,4044,4491.0%
Wayne11K
R+72.6
7835,0305,8471.3%
Ripley11K
R+73.0
7635,0025,8041.3%
Bollinger11K
R+74.8
7565,3656,1611.4%
Crittenden9K
R+68.3
6083,3494,0100.9%
Livingston9K
R+63.0
8864,0214,9721.1%
Lyon9K
R+53.4
9503,1874,1871.0%
Hamilton8K
R+63.3
7393,3854,1811.0%
Ballard8K
R+64.4
6973,3314,0880.9%
Lake7K
R+54.9
4291,4931,9390.4%
Fulton6K
R+39.9
6361,4912,1450.5%
Carter5K
R+74.2
3642,4882,8620.7%
Pulaski5K
R+34.2
7691,5832,3810.5%
Alexander5K
R+19.2
9041,3412,2710.5%
Gallatin5K
R+53.8
5611,9232,5300.6%
Carlisle5K
R+68.0
4082,1822,6100.6%
Hickman4K
R+61.0
3941,6562,0690.5%
Pope4K
R+60.1
4161,6982,1330.5%
Hardin4K
R+61.7
3571,5461,9260.4%
43 countiesTotal votes: 434,636
Historian Query

Ask the Historian

Explore Paducah-Cape Girard-Harsbg's political evolution with the Historian
Race & Ancestry

Who Lives Here

A race-first Census view with ancestry expansion where source coverage is strong enough to support detail.
Paducah-Cape Girard-HarsbgCensus ACS 2024Ancestry detail available
Census race profile
Major Census race and ethnicity groups shown as a share of total population.
Expand rows for ancestry detail
White (Non-Hispanic) 84.7%Black 6.5%Multiracial 4.4%Hispanic 3.3%Asian 0.9%
GroupLocalNational
▶White (Non-Hispanic)(13)
84.7%57.4%
▶Black / African American(9)
6.5%12.2%
Multiracial / Other
4.4%4.0%
▶Hispanic / Latino(18)
3.3%19.3%
▶Asian(6)
0.9%6.0%
▶Native American / Alaska Native(2)
0.2%0.9%
▶Middle Eastern / North African(9)
0.2%0.9%
▶Native Hawaiian / Pacific Islander(3)
0.1%0.2%
Method notes

Census treats race and Hispanic/Latino origin as separate questions. Race categories other than Hispanic reflect total populations (small Hispanic overlap in Black, Asian, AIAN, NHPI). “Multiracial / Other” is derived as a non-overlapping remainder.

Click rows to expand ancestry detail. Ancestry from ACS B04006, B03001, B02020, B02016. Totals may differ from race — individuals can report multiple ancestries.

Black / African American (estimated remainder) is derived as Black population share minus reported Sub-Saharan African and West Indian ancestry. It is shown as an estimated ancestry detail, not a standalone Census ancestry category.

MENA estimated from ancestry reporting — Census does not have a separate MENA race category. Not shown in bar (overlaps with other race groups).

Religious Adherents

Population that are religious adherents:
55.6%(519.6K people)
U.S. Religion Census 2020
Browse all religions

Catholic-Evangelical edge: -66.5pp (vs national 4.5pp). A strongly Evangelical-leaning religious profile, which nationally correlates with Republican-leaning rural and exurban communities.

Tradition% Pop% AdherentsUS PopUS Adherents
Evangelical Protestant
40.2%72.2%——
Mainline Protestant
6.3%11.3%——
Catholic
5.6%10.1%——
Black Protestant
2.0%3.6%——
Other
1.5%2.8%——
LDS (Mormon)
0.5%1.0%——
Non-religiousPopulation
44.4%———
Click the chevron to expand denominations. Tradition and denomination rows label both share of total population and share of all religious adherents. Non-religious is shown as a share of total population only.
Explore Evangelical Protestant adherence nationally

Who lives in the Paducah-Cape Girard-Harsbg media market? 934,160 residents across 43 counties.

Demographic Comparison

Demographics

Read this geography's profile in three layers: local, state (where available), and national baseline.
Paducah-Cape Girard-Harsbg vs National934K residents

22% of adults hold a bachelor's degree — 11pp below the national average. Places with similar education levels vote R+15 on average nationally.

Population & electorate

Scale, voting-age share, and this geography's footprint inside the national electorate.

Total population
Local vs state vs U.S.
934K
local
934KNational 334.9M
Share of U.S. population
Local vs state vs U.S.
0.28%
local
0.28%National 100%
Voting-age population
Local vs state vs U.S.
74.7%
local
74.7%National 75.7%
Economic profile

Income, attainment, and ownership indicators that often shape coalition structure and turnout behavior.

Median household income
Local vs state vs U.S.
$57,839
local
$57,839National $83,960
Poverty rate
Local vs state vs U.S.
16.9%
local
16.9%National 12.5%
College degree
Local vs state vs U.S.
21.9%
local
21.9%National 35.6%
Homeownership
Local vs state vs U.S.
69.9%
local
69.9%National 65.2%
Community profile

Age structure, language use, and nativity signals that explain how this geography differs from state and nation.

Median age
Local vs state vs U.S.
40.9 yrs
local
40.9 yrsNational 39.1 yrs
Age 18–29
Local vs state vs U.S.
15.4%
local
15.4%National 15.7%
Age 65+
Local vs state vs U.S.
19.9%
local
19.9%National 17.0%
Foreign born
Local vs state vs U.S.
2.0%
local
2.0%National 14.1%
Non-English at home
Local vs state vs U.S.
3.5%
local
3.5%National 22.2%
English only
Local vs state vs U.S.
96.5%
local
96.5%National 77.8%
Voter Turnout

Turnout in Paducah-Cape Girard-Harsbg

Estimated using 2020 Census voting-age population.
2024 Turnout
62.3%
vs Previous
-1.7pp
Voting-Age Pop
697,764
History
1988–2024
Competitiveness

How competitive is Paducah-Cape Girard-Harsbg?

Safe RAvg margin: R+48.2 (last 3 elections)
2008
R+19.9
2012
R+30.6
2016
R+46.9
2020
R+47.5
2024
R+50.2
Elasticity
30.3pp
margin range
Party Flips
1
last 30 years
5-Elec Avg
R+39.0
Ticket-Splitting

Do voters in Paducah-Cape Girard-Harsbg split their tickets?

Divergence between offices in the same election reveals persuadable voters.
ConsistencyHeavy splitting (21/100)
2024 Office Comparisons
OfficesMargin AMargin BSplit
President vs GovernorR+50.2R+62.612.4pp
President vs SenateR+50.2R+59.59.3pp
Senate vs GovernorR+59.5R+62.63.1pp
Average divergence across office pairs: 14.3pp
Containing Geography

Located In

Paducah-Cape Girard-Harsbg sits inside these higher-level geographies.
Upgrade Path

Unlock Media Market Analytics

Advance from the public dossier into precinct-level, insight-rich district intelligence.
Target plan Pro$33/mo
Precinct data, Smart Insights, full history, and export controls tailored to place pages.
Precinct-Level Data
See results for every neighborhood and voting precinct
Smart Insights
Automated highlights from recent election patterns
Full Historical Access
165 years of election data at every level of geography
CSV Exports
Download any table or chart as a CSV file
Upgrade to Pro$33/mo