Jacksonville
Latest: 2024
Safe Republican — shifted 5.3pp toward Republicans in 2024 — 2.1M residents — 15 counties
Race & ancestry
| Group | % |
|---|---|
▶White (Non-Hispanic)(13) | 60.7% |
▶Hispanic / Latino(19) | 10.4% |
▶Black / African American(15) | 20.0% |
▶Asian(6) | 3.6% |
▶Middle Eastern / North African(11) | 0.7% |
▶Native American / Alaska Native(1) | 0.2% |
▶Native Hawaiian / Pacific Islander(2) | 0.1% |
Multiracial / Other | 5.0% |
Religious adherence
| Tradition | % Pop | % Adherents |
|---|---|---|
| Evangelical Protestant | 28.8% | 55.8% |
| Catholic | 10.6% | 20.5% |
| Black Protestant | 5.2% | 10.1% |
| Mainline Protestant | 3.6% | 7.0% |
| Other | 3.2% | 6.3% |
| LDS (Mormon) | 1.0% | 2.0% |
| Orthodox Christian | 0.2% | 0.4% |
| Non-religious | 48.5% | — |
Presidential results
| Year | Result |
|---|---|
| 2024 | Trump+23.4 |
| 2020 | Trump+18.0 |
| 2016 | Trump+22.1 |
| 2012 | Romney+21.8 |
| 2008 | McCain+18.6 |
| 2004 | Bush+28.2 |
| 2000 | Bush+24.6 |
| 1996 | Dole+11.4 |
| 1992 | Bush+13.7 |
Jacksonville is a media market that has a population of 2,104,227. In the 2024 presidential election, it voted Republican with a margin of R+23.4. Akashic Edge tracks 40 presidential elections here, dating back to 1868.
| Year | Dem % | Rep % | Margin | Swing |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2024 | 37.8% | 61.2% | R+23.4 | R+5.3 |
| 2020 | 40.4% | 58.4% | R+18.0 | D+4.0 |
| 2016 | 37.3% | 59.4% | R+22.1 | R+0.2 |
| 2012 | 38.5% | 60.4% | R+21.8 | R+3.2 |
| 2008 | 40.2% | 58.9% | R+18.6 | D+9.5 |
| 2004 | 35.6% | 63.8% | R+28.2 | R+3.6 |
| 2000 | 36.8% | 61.3% | R+24.6 | R+13.2 |
| 1996 | 40.6% | 52.0% | R+11.4 | D+2.3 |
| 1992 | 35.2% | 48.9% | R+13.7 | D+15.2 |
| 1988 | 35.3% | 64.2% | R+28.9 | R+0.1 |
| 1984 | 35.6% | 64.4% | R+28.8 | R+25.1 |
| 1980 | 46.7% | 50.3% | R+3.7 | R+24.8 |
| 1976 | 60.1% | 38.9% | D+21.2 | D+70.5 |
| 1972 | 25.2% | 74.5% | R+49.3 | R+50.2 |
| 1968 | 29.6% | 28.7% | D+0.9 | D+5.0 |
| 1964 | 48.0% | 52.0% | R+4.1 | R+17.4 |
| 1960 | 56.7% | 43.3% | D+13.3 | D+7.7 |
| 1956 | 52.7% | 47.1% | D+5.6 | R+4.0 |
| 1952 | 54.8% | 45.2% | D+9.6 | R+15.3 |
| 1948 | 48.8% | 23.9% | D+24.9 | — |
What defines Jacksonville?
It has a moderately diverse, middle-class electorate where education levels and suburban growth shape the partisan balance.
Constituent Counties
Similar media markets
Nearest neighbors matched on the same place-page feature set used across the dossier system.
Mobile-Pensacola (Fort Walton Beach)
Small-town rural republican 3
Charlotte
Small-town rural republican 3
Nashville
Small-town rural republican 3
Atlanta
Educated rural competitive
Cincinnati
Small-town rural republican 3
Greenvll-Spart-Ashevll-and
Small-town rural republican 3
Louisville
Small-town rural republican 3
St. Louis
Small-town rural republican 3
Counties in Jacksonville
2024 presidential results across the counties that make up this geography.
Sort:
| County | Pop. | Margin | Dem | Rep | Total | Share |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Duval | 1.0M | R+1.5 | 229,365 | 236,285 | 471,282 | 43.9% |
| St. Johns | 307K | R+31.4 | 66,862 | 128,759 | 197,457 | 18.4% |
| Clay | 228K | R+39.3 | 37,926 | 87,711 | 126,811 | 11.8% |
| Nassau | 98K | R+46.9 | 17,143 | 47,945 | 65,625 | 6.1% |
| Glynn | 85K | R+26.0 | 16,144 | 27,558 | 43,912 | 4.1% |
| Putnam | 75K | R+47.8 | 9,354 | 26,700 | 36,272 | 3.4% |
| Columbia | 72K | R+50.2 | 8,250 | 25,108 | 33,592 | 3.1% |
| Camden | 57K | R+35.7 | 8,405 | 17,819 | 26,393 | 2.5% |
| Ware | 36K | R+43.2 | 4,068 | 10,279 | 14,392 | 1.3% |
| Baker | 28K | R+73.1 | 1,982 | 12,926 | 14,977 | 1.4% |
| Bradford | 28K | R+57.2 | 2,946 | 10,920 | 13,932 | 1.3% |
| Pierce | 20K | R+77.5 | 1,089 | 8,655 | 9,761 | 0.9% |
| Brantley | 18K | R+82.5 | 736 | 7,744 | 8,500 | 0.8% |
| Union | 16K | R+68.3 | 971 | 5,224 | 6,231 | 0.6% |
| Charlton | 13K | R+56.2 | 1,007 | 3,607 | 4,628 | 0.4% |
15 countiesTotal votes: 1,073,765
Ask the Historian
Explore Jacksonville's political evolution with the Historian
Key Insights
High-confidence patterns distilled from this geography's election history.
- Has voted Republican in the last 5 presidential elections
- Latest election (2024) was a Republican landslide with a 23.4% margin
- Swung 5.3 points toward Republican between 2020 and 2024
Who Lives Here
A race-first Census view with ancestry expansion where source coverage is strong enough to support detail.
Census race profile
Major Census race and ethnicity groups shown as a share of total population.
| Group | Jacksonville | National |
|---|---|---|
▶White (Non-Hispanic)(13) | 60.7% | 57.4% |
▶Black / African American(15) | 20.0% | 12.2% |
▶Hispanic / Latino(19) | 10.4% | 19.3% |
Multiracial / Other | 5.0% | 4.0% |
▶Asian(6) | 3.6% | 6.0% |
▶Middle Eastern / North African(11) | 0.7% | 0.9% |
▶Native American / Alaska Native(1) | 0.2% | 0.9% |
▶Native Hawaiian / Pacific Islander(2) | 0.1% | 0.2% |
Method notes
Religious Adherents
Population that are religious adherents:
51.6%
Catholic-Evangelical edge: -39.8pp (vs national 4.5pp). A strongly Evangelical-leaning religious profile, which nationally correlates with Republican-leaning rural and exurban communities.
| Tradition | % Pop | % Adherents | US Pop | US Adherents |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 28.8% | 55.8% | — | — | |
| 10.6% | 20.5% | — | — | |
| 5.2% | 10.1% | — | — | |
| 3.6% | 7.0% | — | — | |
| 3.2% | 6.3% | — | — | |
LDS (Mormon) | 1.0% | 2.0% | — | — |
| 0.2% | 0.4% | — | — | |
Non-religiousPopulation | 48.5% | — | — | — |
Who lives in the Jacksonville media market? 2,104,227 residents across 15 counties.
Demographics
Read this geography's profile in three layers: local, state (where available), and national baseline.
Population & electorate
Scale, voting-age share, and this geography's footprint inside the national electorate.
Total population
2.1M
Share of U.S. population
0.63%
Voting-age population
75.5%
Economic profile
Income, attainment, and ownership indicators that often shape coalition structure and turnout behavior.
Median household income
$77,323
Poverty rate
13.0%
College degree
33.1%
Homeownership
67.4%
Community profile
Age structure, language use, and nativity signals that explain how this geography differs from state and nation.
Median age
39.6 yrs
Age 18–29
14.6%
Age 65+
17.6%
Foreign born
9.1%
Non-English at home
12.4%
English only
87.6%
Turnout in Jacksonville
Estimated using 2020 Census voting-age population.
67.6%
+1.0pp
1,587,722
1988–2024
How competitive is Jacksonville?
Safe RAvg margin: R+21.2 (last 3 elections)
2008
R+18.6
2012
R+21.8
2016
R+22.1
2020
R+18.0
2024
R+23.4
5.3pp
0
R+20.8
Do voters in Jacksonville split their tickets?
Divergence between offices in the same election reveals persuadable voters.
Heavy splitting (23/100)
| Offices | Margin A | Margin B | Split |
|---|---|---|---|
| President vs Senate | R+23.4 | R+21.7 | 1.7pp |
Average divergence across office pairs: 13.9pp
Located In
Jacksonville sits inside these higher-level geographies.
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