Harrisonburg
Latest: 2024
Safe Republican — 270K residents — 6 counties
Race & ancestry
| Group | % |
|---|---|
▶White (Non-Hispanic)(13) | 79.5% |
▶Hispanic / Latino(20) | 9.9% |
▶Black / African American(11) | 5.6% |
▶Asian(6) | 1.5% |
▶Middle Eastern / North African(10) | 0.5% |
▶Native American / Alaska Native(1) | 0.3% |
Multiracial / Other | 3.2% |
Religious adherence
| Tradition | % Pop | % Adherents |
|---|---|---|
| Evangelical Protestant | 28.1% | 57.0% |
| Mainline Protestant | 12.6% | 25.5% |
| Catholic | 4.9% | 9.9% |
| Other | 2.9% | 5.9% |
| LDS (Mormon) | 1.0% | 1.9% |
| Black Protestant | 0.5% | 1.1% |
| Orthodox Christian | 0.2% | 0.5% |
| Non-religious | 50.8% | — |
Presidential results
| Year | Result |
|---|---|
| 2024 | Trump+25.7 |
| 2020 | Trump+25.6 |
| 2016 | Trump+28.7 |
| 2012 | Romney+25.8 |
| 2008 | McCain+23.2 |
| 2004 | Bush+39.6 |
| 2000 | Bush+36.8 |
| 1996 | Dole+27.5 |
| 1992 | Bush+28.0 |
Harrisonburg is a media market that has a population of 269,857. In the 2024 presidential election, it voted Republican with a margin of R+25.7. Akashic Edge tracks 40 presidential elections here, dating back to 1868.
| Year | Dem % | Rep % | Margin | Swing |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2024 | 36.6% | 62.2% | R+25.7 | R+0.1 |
| 2020 | 36.2% | 61.8% | R+25.6 | D+3.1 |
| 2016 | 32.5% | 61.2% | R+28.7 | R+2.9 |
| 2012 | 36.1% | 62.0% | R+25.8 | R+2.6 |
| 2008 | 37.8% | 61.0% | R+23.2 | D+16.4 |
| 2004 | 29.6% | 69.2% | R+39.6 | R+2.8 |
| 2000 | 29.7% | 66.5% | R+36.8 | R+9.3 |
| 1996 | 31.4% | 58.9% | R+27.5 | D+0.5 |
| 1992 | 28.5% | 56.4% | R+28.0 | D+14.2 |
| 1988 | 28.3% | 70.4% | R+42.1 | D+7.6 |
| 1984 | 24.9% | 74.6% | R+49.7 | R+20.0 |
| 1980 | 32.1% | 61.9% | R+29.7 | R+8.5 |
| 1976 | 37.6% | 58.9% | R+21.2 | D+38.2 |
| 1972 | 19.3% | 78.7% | R+59.4 | R+21.5 |
| 1968 | 23.1% | 61.1% | R+37.9 | R+40.6 |
| 1964 | 51.2% | 48.6% | D+2.6 | D+35.8 |
| 1960 | 33.2% | 66.4% | R+33.1 | D+6.2 |
| 1956 | 29.3% | 68.6% | R+39.3 | R+2.0 |
| 1952 | 31.3% | 68.6% | R+37.3 | R+23.9 |
| 1948 | 39.4% | 52.8% | R+13.4 | — |
What defines Harrisonburg?
Harrisonburg voted overwhelmingly Republican in 2024. Akashic Edge tracks 40 presidential elections here, revealing how its political character has evolved over more than a century.
Constituent Counties
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Nearest neighbors matched on the same place-page feature set used across the dossier system.
Columbia-Jefferson City
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St. Joseph
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Glendive
Small-town rural republican
Johnstown-Altoona-State College
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Mankato
Small-town rural republican 3
North Platte
Small-town rural republican
Cheyenne-Scottsbluff
Small-town rural republican
Peoria-Bloomington
Small-town rural republican 3
Counties in Harrisonburg
2024 presidential results across the counties that make up this geography.
Sort:
| County | Pop. | Margin | Dem | Rep | Total | Share |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Rockingham | 86K | R+37.0 | 15,035 | 33,033 | 48,581 | 35.1% |
| Augusta | 78K | R+47.5 | 11,403 | 32,429 | 44,223 | 32.0% |
| Harrisonburg City | 51K | D+25.4 | 10,641 | 6,266 | 17,245 | 12.5% |
| Staunton City | 26K | D+13.4 | 7,592 | 5,778 | 13,562 | 9.8% |
| Waynesboro City | 23K | R+5.7 | 5,240 | 5,882 | 11,274 | 8.2% |
| Pendleton | 6K | R+58.6 | 680 | 2,687 | 3,425 | 2.5% |
6 countiesTotal votes: 138,310
Ask the Historian
Explore Harrisonburg's political evolution with the Historian
Key Insights
High-confidence patterns distilled from this geography's election history.
- Has voted Republican in the last 5 presidential elections
- Latest election (2024) was a Republican landslide with a 25.7% margin
- Turnout increased by 3.9 percentage points since the previous presidential election
Who Lives Here
A race-first Census view with ancestry expansion where source coverage is strong enough to support detail.
Census race profile
Major Census race and ethnicity groups shown as a share of total population.
| Group | Harrisonburg | National |
|---|---|---|
▶White (Non-Hispanic)(13) | 79.5% | 57.4% |
▶Hispanic / Latino(20) | 9.9% | 19.3% |
▶Black / African American(11) | 5.6% | 12.2% |
Multiracial / Other | 3.2% | 4.0% |
▶Asian(6) | 1.5% | 6.0% |
▶Middle Eastern / North African(10) | 0.5% | 0.9% |
▶Native American / Alaska Native(1) | 0.3% | 0.9% |
Method notes
Religious Adherents
Population that are religious adherents:
49.2%
Catholic-Evangelical edge: -51.6pp (vs national 4.5pp). A strongly Evangelical-leaning religious profile, which nationally correlates with Republican-leaning rural and exurban communities.
| Tradition | % Pop | % Adherents | US Pop | US Adherents |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 28.1% | 57.0% | — | — | |
| 12.6% | 25.5% | — | — | |
| 4.9% | 9.9% | — | — | |
| 2.9% | 5.9% | — | — | |
LDS (Mormon) | 1.0% | 1.9% | — | — |
| 0.5% | 1.1% | — | — | |
| 0.2% | 0.5% | — | — | |
Non-religiousPopulation | 50.8% | — | — | — |
Who lives in the Harrisonburg media market? 269,857 residents across 6 counties.
Demographics
Read this geography's profile in three layers: local, state (where available), and national baseline.
Population & electorate
Scale, voting-age share, and this geography's footprint inside the national electorate.
Total population
270K
Share of U.S. population
0.08%
Voting-age population
75.1%
Economic profile
Income, attainment, and ownership indicators that often shape coalition structure and turnout behavior.
Median household income
$74,103
Poverty rate
12.4%
College degree
29.8%
Homeownership
68.0%
Community profile
Age structure, language use, and nativity signals that explain how this geography differs from state and nation.
Median age
38.7 yrs
Age 18–29
18.8%
Age 65+
19.1%
Foreign born
6.9%
Non-English at home
11.3%
English only
88.7%
Turnout in Harrisonburg
Estimated using 2020 Census voting-age population.
68.3%
+3.9pp
202,584
1988–2024
How competitive is Harrisonburg?
Safe RAvg margin: R+26.6 (last 3 elections)
2008
R+23.2
2012
R+25.8
2016
R+28.7
2020
R+25.6
2024
R+25.7
5.5pp
0
R+25.8
Do voters in Harrisonburg split their tickets?
Divergence between offices in the same election reveals persuadable voters.
Heavy splitting (0/100)
| Offices | Margin A | Margin B | Split |
|---|---|---|---|
| Senate vs Governor | R+21.8 | R+55.3 | 33.5pp |
| President vs Governor | R+25.7 | R+55.3 | 29.6pp |
| President vs Senate | R+25.7 | R+21.8 | 3.9pp |
Average divergence across office pairs: 25.2pp
Located In
Harrisonburg sits inside these higher-level geographies.
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