Rochester, NY
Leans Democratic — 1.0M residents — 5 counties
| Group | % |
|---|---|
▶White (Non-Hispanic)(13) | 73.3% |
▶Hispanic / Latino(19) | 8.6% |
▶Black / African American(16) | 10.8% |
▶Asian(6) | 3.1% |
▶Middle Eastern / North African(10) | 0.8% |
▶Native American / Alaska Native(1) | 0.1% |
Multiracial / Other | 4.0% |
| Tradition | % Pop | % Adherents |
|---|---|---|
| Catholic | 26.4% | 55.7% |
| Evangelical Protestant | 7.7% | 16.3% |
| Mainline Protestant | 6.1% | 12.9% |
| Other | 5.5% | 11.7% |
| Black Protestant | 1.2% | 2.6% |
| LDS (Mormon) | 0.8% | 1.7% |
| Orthodox Christian | 0.4% | 0.8% |
| Non-religious | 52.6% | — |
| Year | Result |
|---|---|
| 2024 | Harris+9.7 |
| 2020 | Biden+12.1 |
| 2016 | Clinton+6.2 |
| 2012 | Obama+11.6 |
| 2008 | Obama+11.5 |
| 2004 | Bush+3.0 |
| 2000 | Gore+0.7 |
| 1996 | Clinton+12.0 |
| 1992 | Bush+1.3 |
Rochester, NY is a media market that has a population of 1,043,331. In the 2024 presidential election, it voted Democratic with a margin of D+9.7. Akashic Edge tracks 40 presidential elections here, dating back to 1868.
| Year | Dem % | Rep % | Margin | Swing |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2024 | 54.6% | 44.9% | D+9.7 | R+2.3 |
| 2020 | 54.8% | 42.7% | D+12.1 | D+5.9 |
| 2016 | 49.7% | 43.5% | D+6.2 | R+5.4 |
| 2012 | 54.8% | 43.1% | D+11.6 | D+0.1 |
| 2008 | 55.1% | 43.6% | D+11.5 | D+14.5 |
| 2004 | 47.6% | 50.6% | R+3.0 | R+3.7 |
| 2000 | 48.0% | 47.3% | D+0.7 | R+11.2 |
| 1996 | 50.7% | 38.8% | D+12.0 | D+13.3 |
| 1992 | 39.3% | 40.6% | R+1.3 | D+3.5 |
| 1988 | 47.2% | 52.0% | R+4.8 | D+16.4 |
| 1984 | 39.1% | 60.4% | R+21.2 | R+22.1 |
| 1980 | 44.7% | 43.9% | D+0.8 | D+14.3 |
| 1976 | 43.0% | 56.5% | R+13.5 | D+15.0 |
| 1972 | 35.7% | 64.1% | R+28.4 | R+21.2 |
| 1968 | 43.8% | 51.0% | R+7.2 | R+47.2 |
| 1964 | 70.0% | 30.0% | D+40.0 | D+49.6 |
| 1960 | 45.2% | 54.8% | R+9.6 | D+29.2 |
| 1956 | 30.6% | 69.4% | R+38.8 | R+11.9 |
| 1952 | 35.7% | 62.6% | R+26.9 | R+18.3 |
| 1948 | 44.0% | 52.6% | R+8.6 | — |
What defines Rochester, NY?
Rochester, NY has been won by both parties in the last 6 presidential elections (5D, 1R) — a genuine swing geography. It has a moderately diverse, middle-class electorate where education levels and suburban growth shape the partisan balance.
Constituent Counties
Similar media markets
Counties in Rochester, NY
| County | Pop. | Margin | Dem | Rep | Total | Share |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Monroe | 754K | D+19.0 | 214,757 | 145,940 | 362,715 | 71.3% |
| Ontario | 113K | R+1.2 | 29,520 | 30,221 | 59,987 | 11.8% |
| Wayne | 91K | R+23.0 | 17,056 | 27,286 | 44,443 | 8.7% |
| Livingston | 61K | R+21.4 | 12,148 | 18,780 | 31,035 | 6.1% |
| Yates | 25K | R+16.1 | 4,401 | 6,098 | 10,542 | 2.1% |
Ask the Historian
Key Insights
- Has voted Democratic in the last 5 presidential elections
- Won by both parties in recent history — Democrats most recently in 2024, Republicans in 2004
Who Lives Here
| Group | Rochester, NY | National |
|---|---|---|
▶White (Non-Hispanic)(13) | 73.3% | 57.4% |
▶Black / African American(16) | 10.8% | 12.2% |
▶Hispanic / Latino(19) | 8.6% | 19.3% |
Multiracial / Other | 4.0% | 4.0% |
▶Asian(6) | 3.1% | 6.0% |
▶Middle Eastern / North African(10) | 0.8% | 0.9% |
▶Native American / Alaska Native(1) | 0.1% | 0.9% |
Religious Adherents
Catholic-Evangelical edge: +34.9pp (vs national 4.5pp). A strongly Catholic-leaning religious profile, which nationally correlates with Democratic-leaning urban and suburban communities.
| Tradition | % Pop | % Adherents | US Pop | US Adherents |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 26.4% | 55.7% | — | — | |
| 7.7% | 16.3% | — | — | |
| 6.1% | 12.9% | — | — | |
| 5.5% | 11.7% | — | — | |
| 1.2% | 2.6% | — | — | |
LDS (Mormon) | 0.8% | 1.7% | — | — |
| 0.4% | 0.8% | — | — | |
Non-religiousPopulation | 52.6% | — | — | — |
Who lives in the Rochester, NY media market? 1,043,331 residents across 5 counties.
Demographics
39% of adults hold a bachelor's degree — 6pp above the national average. Places with similar education levels vote D+8 on average nationally.
Scale, voting-age share, and this geography's footprint inside the national electorate.
Income, attainment, and ownership indicators that often shape coalition structure and turnout behavior.
Age structure, language use, and nativity signals that explain how this geography differs from state and nation.
Turnout in Rochester, NY
How competitive is Rochester, NY?
Do voters in Rochester, NY split their tickets?
| Offices | Margin A | Margin B | Split |
|---|---|---|---|
| President vs Senate | D+9.7 | D+12.0 | 2.2pp |