Duluth-Superior
Latest: 2024
Competitive — 426K residents — 12 counties
Race & ancestry
| Group | % |
|---|---|
▶White (Non-Hispanic)(13) | 88.2% |
▶Hispanic / Latino(16) | 2.0% |
▶Black / African American(11) | 1.3% |
▶Asian(6) | 0.8% |
▶Middle Eastern / North African(9) | 0.2% |
▶Native American / Alaska Native(4) | 2.9% |
Multiracial / Other | 4.8% |
Religious adherence
| Tradition | % Pop | % Adherents |
|---|---|---|
| Catholic | 14.5% | 39.7% |
| Mainline Protestant | 11.4% | 31.2% |
| Evangelical Protestant | 8.7% | 23.7% |
| Other | 1.8% | 4.9% |
| LDS (Mormon) | 0.5% | 1.4% |
| Orthodox Christian | 0.1% | 0.3% |
| Non-religious | 63.4% | — |
Presidential results
| Year | Result |
|---|---|
| 2024 | Harris+3.5 |
| 2020 | Biden+6.4 |
| 2016 | Clinton+3.9 |
| 2012 | Obama+24.2 |
| 2008 | Obama+27.3 |
| 2004 | Kerry+24.3 |
| 2000 | Gore+19.2 |
| 1996 | Clinton+29.1 |
| 1992 | Clinton+27.7 |
Duluth-Superior is a media market that has a population of 426,152. In the 2024 presidential election, it voted Democratic with a margin of D+3.5. Akashic Edge tracks 40 presidential elections here, dating back to 1868.
| Year | Dem % | Rep % | Margin | Swing |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2024 | 50.7% | 47.2% | D+3.5 | R+2.9 |
| 2020 | 52.2% | 45.8% | D+6.4 | D+2.5 |
| 2016 | 48.0% | 44.0% | D+3.9 | R+20.3 |
| 2012 | 60.9% | 36.8% | D+24.2 | R+3.1 |
| 2008 | 62.6% | 35.3% | D+27.3 | D+3.0 |
| 2004 | 61.5% | 37.2% | D+24.3 | D+5.1 |
| 2000 | 56.2% | 37.0% | D+19.2 | R+9.9 |
| 1996 | 57.3% | 28.3% | D+29.1 | D+1.4 |
| 1992 | 53.1% | 25.4% | D+27.7 | R+1.8 |
| 1988 | 64.3% | 34.8% | D+29.4 | D+1.1 |
| 1984 | 63.8% | 35.4% | D+28.4 | D+5.4 |
| 1980 | 56.7% | 33.8% | D+22.9 | R+7.7 |
| 1976 | 63.8% | 33.2% | D+30.7 | D+19.0 |
| 1972 | 55.0% | 43.3% | D+11.7 | R+26.1 |
| 1968 | 66.8% | 28.9% | D+37.8 | R+11.6 |
| 1964 | 74.5% | 25.2% | D+49.4 | D+26.4 |
| 1960 | 61.3% | 38.3% | D+23.0 | D+8.8 |
| 1956 | 56.9% | 42.7% | D+14.2 | R+1.6 |
| 1952 | 57.4% | 41.6% | D+15.8 | R+15.6 |
| 1948 | 62.9% | 31.5% | D+31.4 | — |
What defines Duluth-Superior?
Duluth-Superior voted narrowly Democratic in 2024. Akashic Edge tracks 40 presidential elections here, revealing how its political character has evolved over more than a century.
Constituent Counties
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Nearest neighbors matched on the same place-page feature set used across the dossier system.
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Burlington-Plattsburgh
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Davenport-R.Island-Moline
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La Crosse-Eau Claire
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Traverse City-Cadillac
Small-town rural republican 2
Counties in Duluth-Superior
2024 presidential results across the counties that make up this geography.
Sort:
| County | Pop. | Margin | Dem | Rep | Total | Share |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| St. Louis | 200K | D+13.7 | 66,335 | 50,065 | 119,009 | 47.0% |
| Itasca | 45K | R+20.1 | 10,467 | 15,863 | 26,840 | 10.6% |
| Douglas | 44K | D+5.3 | 13,073 | 11,732 | 25,234 | 10.0% |
| Carlton | 37K | R+2.5 | 9,905 | 10,435 | 20,815 | 8.2% |
| Sawyer | 18K | R+16.4 | 4,599 | 6,422 | 11,140 | 4.4% |
| Bayfield | 17K | D+11.1 | 6,107 | 4,860 | 11,240 | 4.4% |
| Ashland | 16K | D+4.7 | 4,612 | 4,191 | 8,955 | 3.5% |
| Gogebic | 14K | R+17.1 | 3,385 | 4,803 | 8,295 | 3.3% |
| Koochiching | 12K | R+25.6 | 2,465 | 4,204 | 6,789 | 2.7% |
| Lake | 11K | D+3.9 | 3,534 | 3,265 | 6,954 | 2.7% |
| Iron | 6K | R+26.2 | 1,487 | 2,557 | 4,084 | 1.6% |
| Cook | 6K | D+34.8 | 2,416 | 1,142 | 3,660 | 1.4% |
12 countiesTotal votes: 253,015
Ask the Historian
Explore Duluth-Superior's political evolution with the Historian
Key Insights
High-confidence patterns distilled from this geography's election history.
- Has voted Democratic in the last 5 presidential elections
- Highly elastic — margins have ranged 23.8 points across recent elections, suggesting a volatile electorate
- Closest recent contest: 2024 at just 3.5 points
Who Lives Here
A race-first Census view with ancestry expansion where source coverage is strong enough to support detail.
Census race profile
Major Census race and ethnicity groups shown as a share of total population.
| Group | Duluth-Superior | National |
|---|---|---|
▶White (Non-Hispanic)(13) | 88.2% | 57.4% |
Multiracial / Other | 4.8% | 4.0% |
▶Native American / Alaska Native(4) | 2.9% | 0.9% |
▶Hispanic / Latino(16) | 2.0% | 19.3% |
▶Black / African American(11) | 1.3% | 12.2% |
▶Asian(6) | 0.8% | 6.0% |
▶Middle Eastern / North African(9) | 0.2% | 0.9% |
Method notes
Religious Adherents
Population that are religious adherents:
36.6%
Catholic-Evangelical edge: +11.5pp (vs national 4.5pp). A strongly Catholic-leaning religious profile, which nationally correlates with Democratic-leaning urban and suburban communities.
| Tradition | % Pop | % Adherents | US Pop | US Adherents |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 14.5% | 39.7% | — | — | |
| 11.4% | 31.2% | — | — | |
| 8.7% | 23.7% | — | — | |
| 1.8% | 4.9% | — | — | |
LDS (Mormon) | 0.5% | 1.4% | — | — |
| 0.1% | 0.3% | — | — | |
Non-religiousPopulation | 63.4% | — | — | — |
Who lives in the Duluth-Superior media market? 426,152 residents across 12 counties.
Demographics
Read this geography's profile in three layers: local, state (where available), and national baseline.
Population & electorate
Scale, voting-age share, and this geography's footprint inside the national electorate.
Total population
426K
Share of U.S. population
0.13%
Voting-age population
77.6%
Economic profile
Income, attainment, and ownership indicators that often shape coalition structure and turnout behavior.
Median household income
$69,836
Poverty rate
12.5%
College degree
30.3%
Homeownership
75.3%
Community profile
Age structure, language use, and nativity signals that explain how this geography differs from state and nation.
Median age
44.3 yrs
Age 18–29
14.7%
Age 65+
23.2%
Foreign born
1.8%
Non-English at home
3.0%
English only
97.0%
Turnout in Duluth-Superior
Estimated using 2020 Census voting-age population.
76.5%
+0.5pp
330,741
1988–2024
How competitive is Duluth-Superior?
Tilt DAvg margin: D+4.6 (last 3 elections)
2008
D+27.3
2012
D+24.2
2016
D+3.9
2020
D+6.4
2024
D+3.5
23.8pp
0
D+13.1
Do voters in Duluth-Superior split their tickets?
Divergence between offices in the same election reveals persuadable voters.
Moderate splitting (66/100)
| Offices | Margin A | Margin B | Split |
|---|---|---|---|
| President vs Senate | D+3.5 | D+13.6 | 10.1pp |
Average divergence across office pairs: 7.5pp
Located In
Duluth-Superior sits inside these higher-level geographies.
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