Skip to main content
Davenport-R.Island-Moline

Davenport-R.Island-Moline

Latest: 2024↓ R+5.2 vs 2020

Leans Republican — shifted 5.2pp toward Republicans in 2024 — 756K residents — 17 counties

Ask HistorianOpen in ExploreCompareShare image
Race & ancestry
Group%
▶White (Non-Hispanic)(13)
79.5%
▶Hispanic / Latino(15)
9.1%
▶Black / African American(10)
5.4%
▶Asian(6)
1.7%
▶Middle Eastern / North African(8)
0.2%
▶Native American / Alaska Native(4)
0.3%
▶Native Hawaiian / Pacific Islander(2)
0.1%
Multiracial / Other
4.0%
View full demographics →
Religious adherence
Tradition% Pop% Adherents
Catholic13.7%34.9%
Mainline Protestant12.7%32.3%
Evangelical Protestant9.6%24.4%
Other2.1%5.3%
Black Protestant1.1%2.9%
LDS (Mormon)0.7%1.8%
Non-religious60.6%—
View full religion →
Presidential results
YearResult
2024Trump+11.5
2020Trump+6.3
2016Trump+5.9
2012Obama+13.7
2008Obama+16.3
2004Kerry+4.9
2000Gore+8.2
1996Clinton+14.9
1992Clinton+11.1
View full election history →

Davenport-R.Island-Moline is a media market that has a population of 755,815. In the 2024 presidential election, it voted Republican with a margin of R+11.5. Akashic Edge tracks 40 presidential elections here, dating back to 1868.

Davenport-R.Island-Moline Presidential Election Results, 1948–2024
YearDem %Rep %MarginSwing
202443.3%54.8%R+11.5R+5.2
202045.7%52.0%R+6.3R+0.4
201643.1%49.0%R+5.9R+19.6
201255.9%42.2%D+13.7R+2.6
200857.3%41.1%D+16.3D+11.4
200452.0%47.2%D+4.9R+3.4
200052.9%44.7%D+8.2R+6.7
199652.3%37.3%D+14.9D+3.8
199246.8%35.6%D+11.1D+4.9
198852.8%46.5%D+6.2D+15.2
198445.2%54.2%R+9.0D+7.9
198037.1%54.0%R+16.9R+11.0
197646.3%52.2%R+5.9D+14.9
197239.1%59.9%R+20.8R+10.3
196841.2%51.6%R+10.4R+26.6
196458.0%41.9%D+16.2D+30.3
196042.9%57.0%R+14.1D+11.1
195637.3%62.6%R+25.3D+2.9
195235.7%63.9%R+28.2R+15.8
194843.2%55.7%R+12.4—
Political Identity

What defines Davenport-R.Island-Moline?

Davenport-R.Island-Moline has been won by both parties in the last 6 presidential elections (3D, 3R) — a genuine swing geography.

Constituent Counties

Open in Cartographer
Similarity Explorer

Similar media markets

Nearest neighbors matched on the same place-page feature set used across the dossier system.
8 visible matches
Constituent Geography

Counties in Davenport-R.Island-Moline

2024 presidential results across the counties that make up this geography.
Sort:
CountyPop.MarginDemRepTotalShare
Scott175K
R+3.9
42,47945,97690,13324.3%
Rock Island143K
D+9.6
34,12628,06163,45817.1%
Whiteside55K
R+14.7
11,01214,89826,4477.1%
Knox49K
R+9.4
9,83811,91722,1916.0%
Henry49K
R+24.4
9,22615,35925,0926.8%
Clinton46K
R+18.8
9,47213,96423,8786.4%
Muscatine43K
R+14.9
8,21211,15219,7525.3%
Des Moines38K
R+15.0
7,93510,79419,0545.1%
Bureau33K
R+24.3
5,9009,78415,9994.3%
Jodaviess22K
R+16.8
5,0517,13612,4143.3%
Henry20K
R+35.9
2,9956,4399,6002.6%
Jackson19K
R+32.5
3,5677,07410,8012.9%
Warren16K
R+25.1
2,7114,5797,4472.0%
Carroll16K
R+31.7
2,6005,0827,8402.1%
Mercer15K
R+27.1
2,9505,2158,3462.2%
Louisa11K
R+40.9
1,4803,5845,1421.4%
Henderson6K
R+38.8
1,0262,3693,4640.9%
17 countiesTotal votes: 371,058
Historian Query

Ask the Historian

Explore Davenport-R.Island-Moline's political evolution with the Historian
Automated Readout

Key Insights

High-confidence patterns distilled from this geography's election history.
  • Won by both parties in recent history — Democrats most recently in 2012, Republicans in 2024
  • Shifted 25.2 points toward Republicans over the last 4 elections
  • Highly elastic — margins have ranged 27.8 points across recent elections, suggesting a volatile electorate
Race & Ancestry

Who Lives Here

A race-first Census view with ancestry expansion where source coverage is strong enough to support detail.
Davenport-R.Island-MolineCensus ACS 2024Ancestry detail available
Census race profile
Major Census race and ethnicity groups shown as a share of total population.
Expand rows for ancestry detail
White (Non-Hispanic) 79.5%Hispanic 9.1%Black 5.4%Multiracial 4.0%Asian 1.7%
GroupLocalNational
▶White (Non-Hispanic)(13)
79.5%57.4%
▶Hispanic / Latino(15)
9.1%19.3%
▶Black / African American(10)
5.4%12.2%
Multiracial / Other
4.0%4.0%
▶Asian(6)
1.7%6.0%
▶Native American / Alaska Native(4)
0.3%0.9%
▶Middle Eastern / North African(8)
0.2%0.9%
▶Native Hawaiian / Pacific Islander(2)
0.1%0.2%
Method notes

Census treats race and Hispanic/Latino origin as separate questions. Race categories other than Hispanic reflect total populations (small Hispanic overlap in Black, Asian, AIAN, NHPI). “Multiracial / Other” is derived as a non-overlapping remainder.

Click rows to expand ancestry detail. Ancestry from ACS B04006, B03001, B02020, B02016. Totals may differ from race — individuals can report multiple ancestries.

Black / African American (estimated remainder) is derived as Black population share minus reported Sub-Saharan African and West Indian ancestry. It is shown as an estimated ancestry detail, not a standalone Census ancestry category.

MENA estimated from ancestry reporting — Census does not have a separate MENA race category. Not shown in bar (overlaps with other race groups).

Religious Adherents

Population that are religious adherents:
39.4%(297.6K people)
U.S. Religion Census 2020
Browse all religions

Catholic-Evangelical edge: +6.1pp (vs national 4.5pp). A moderate religious balance between Catholic and Evangelical traditions.

Tradition% Pop% AdherentsUS PopUS Adherents
Catholic
13.7%34.9%——
Mainline Protestant
12.7%32.3%——
Evangelical Protestant
9.6%24.4%——
Other
2.1%5.3%——
Black Protestant
1.1%2.9%——
LDS (Mormon)
0.7%1.8%——
Non-religiousPopulation
60.6%———
Click the chevron to expand denominations. Tradition and denomination rows label both share of total population and share of all religious adherents. Non-religious is shown as a share of total population only.

Who lives in the Davenport-R.Island-Moline media market? 755,815 residents across 17 counties.

Demographic Comparison

Demographics

Read this geography's profile in three layers: local, state (where available), and national baseline.
Davenport-R.Island-Moline vs National756K residents

26% of adults hold a bachelor's degree — 7pp below the national average. Places with similar education levels vote R+3 on average nationally.

Population & electorate

Scale, voting-age share, and this geography's footprint inside the national electorate.

Total population
Local vs state vs U.S.
756K
local
756KNational 334.9M
Share of U.S. population
Local vs state vs U.S.
0.23%
local
0.23%National 100%
Voting-age population
Local vs state vs U.S.
75.0%
local
75.0%National 75.7%
Economic profile

Income, attainment, and ownership indicators that often shape coalition structure and turnout behavior.

Median household income
Local vs state vs U.S.
$69,853
local
$69,853National $83,960
Poverty rate
Local vs state vs U.S.
12.5%
local
12.5%National 12.5%
College degree
Local vs state vs U.S.
26.0%
local
26.0%National 35.6%
Homeownership
Local vs state vs U.S.
73.6%
local
73.6%National 65.2%
Community profile

Age structure, language use, and nativity signals that explain how this geography differs from state and nation.

Median age
Local vs state vs U.S.
41.7 yrs
local
41.7 yrsNational 39.1 yrs
Age 18–29
Local vs state vs U.S.
13.8%
local
13.8%National 15.7%
Age 65+
Local vs state vs U.S.
20.5%
local
20.5%National 17.0%
Foreign born
Local vs state vs U.S.
4.5%
local
4.5%National 14.1%
Non-English at home
Local vs state vs U.S.
7.7%
local
7.7%National 22.2%
English only
Local vs state vs U.S.
92.3%
local
92.3%National 77.8%
Voter Turnout

Turnout in Davenport-R.Island-Moline

Estimated using 2020 Census voting-age population.
2024 Turnout
65.4%
vs Previous
-2.7pp
Voting-Age Pop
567,170
History
1988–2024
Competitiveness

How competitive is Davenport-R.Island-Moline?

Lean RAvg margin: R+7.9 (last 3 elections)
2008
D+16.3
2012
D+13.7
2016
R+5.9
2020
R+6.3
2024
R+11.5
Elasticity
27.8pp
margin range
Party Flips
1
last 30 years
5-Elec Avg
D+1.2
Ticket-Splitting

Do voters in Davenport-R.Island-Moline split their tickets?

Divergence between offices in the same election reveals persuadable voters.
ConsistencyModerate splitting (59/100)
2022 Office Comparisons
OfficesMargin AMargin BSplit
Senate vs GovernorR+9.0R+15.06.0pp
Average divergence across office pairs: 8.6pp
Containing Geography

Located In

Davenport-R.Island-Moline sits inside these higher-level geographies.
Upgrade Path

Unlock Media Market Analytics

Advance from the public dossier into precinct-level, insight-rich district intelligence.
Target plan Pro$33/mo
Precinct data, Smart Insights, full history, and export controls tailored to place pages.
Precinct-Level Data
See results for every neighborhood and voting precinct
Smart Insights
Automated highlights from recent election patterns
Full Historical Access
165 years of election data at every level of geography
CSV Exports
Download any table or chart as a CSV file
Upgrade to Pro$33/mo