Bismarck, ND
Latest: 2024
Safe Republican — 136K residents — 3 counties
Race & ancestry
| Group | % |
|---|---|
▶White (Non-Hispanic)(13) | 85.5% |
▶Hispanic / Latino(13) | 3.6% |
▶Black / African American(10) | 1.9% |
▶Asian(6) | 0.8% |
▶Middle Eastern / North African(4) | 0.2% |
▶Native American / Alaska Native(4) | 3.6% |
▶Native Hawaiian / Pacific Islander(3) | 0.4% |
Multiracial / Other | 4.2% |
Religious adherence
| Tradition | % Pop | % Adherents |
|---|---|---|
| Catholic | 28.1% | 48.6% |
| Mainline Protestant | 15.6% | 27.1% |
| Evangelical Protestant | 12.1% | 21.0% |
| Other | 1.9% | 3.3% |
| LDS (Mormon) | 1.1% | 1.9% |
| Non-religious | 42.2% | — |
Presidential results
| Year | Result |
|---|---|
| 2024 | Trump+45.8 |
| 2020 | Trump+43.2 |
| 2016 | Trump+47.2 |
| 2012 | Romney+31.8 |
| 2008 | McCain+23.0 |
| 2004 | Bush+37.5 |
| 2000 | Bush+35.6 |
| 1996 | Dole+14.4 |
| 1992 | Bush+20.4 |
Bismarck, ND is a metro area that has a population of 136,216. In the 2024 presidential election, it voted Republican with a margin of R+45.8. Akashic Edge tracks 34 presidential elections here, dating back to 1892.
| Year | Dem % | Rep % | Margin | Swing |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2024 | 25.7% | 71.5% | R+45.8 | R+2.6 |
| 2020 | 26.8% | 70.0% | R+43.2 | D+4.0 |
| 2016 | 21.7% | 68.9% | R+47.2 | R+15.4 |
| 2012 | 32.5% | 64.3% | R+31.8 | R+8.8 |
| 2008 | 37.3% | 60.3% | R+23.0 | D+14.4 |
| 2004 | 30.4% | 67.9% | R+37.5 | R+1.9 |
| 2000 | 28.9% | 64.5% | R+35.6 | R+21.2 |
| 1996 | 36.0% | 50.4% | R+14.4 | D+6.0 |
| 1992 | 28.4% | 48.8% | R+20.4 | 0.0 |
| 1988 | 39.2% | 59.6% | R+20.3 | D+14.9 |
| 1984 | 31.5% | 66.8% | R+35.3 | D+9.3 |
| 1980 | 23.2% | 67.8% | R+44.6 | R+32.6 |
| 1976 | 42.6% | 54.6% | R+12.0 | D+22.4 |
| 1972 | 30.6% | 65.1% | R+34.4 | R+6.6 |
| 1968 | 33.3% | 61.2% | R+27.9 | R+40.8 |
| 1964 | 56.3% | 43.4% | D+12.9 | D+25.2 |
| 1960 | 43.8% | 56.1% | R+12.2 | D+30.1 |
| 1956 | 28.6% | 71.0% | R+42.4 | D+14.6 |
| 1952 | 21.3% | 78.2% | R+56.9 | R+35.3 |
| 1948 | 37.2% | 58.8% | R+21.7 | — |
What defines Bismarck, ND?
Bismarck, ND voted overwhelmingly Republican in 2024. Akashic Edge tracks 34 presidential elections here, revealing how its political character has evolved over more than a century.
Constituent Counties
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Billings, MT
Small-town rural republican 2
Jefferson City, MO
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Rapid City, SD
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Kearney, NE
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Dickinson, ND
Small-town rural republican 3
Effingham, IL
Small-town rural republican 3
Hastings, NE
Small-town rural republican 3
Crestview-Fort Walton Beach-Destin, FL
Small-town rural republican 2
Counties in Bismarck, ND
2024 presidential results across the counties that make up this geography.
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Ask the Historian
Explore Bismarck, ND's political evolution with the Historian
Key Insights
High-confidence patterns distilled from this geography's election history.
- Has voted Republican in the last 5 presidential elections
- Latest election (2024) was a Republican landslide with a 45.8% margin
- Highly elastic — margins have ranged 24.2 points across recent elections, suggesting a volatile electorate
Who Lives Here
A race-first Census view with ancestry expansion where source coverage is strong enough to support detail.
Census race profile
Major Census race and ethnicity groups shown as a share of total population.
| Group | Bismarck, ND | National |
|---|---|---|
▶White (Non-Hispanic)(13) | 85.5% | 57.4% |
Multiracial / Other | 4.2% | 4.0% |
▶Hispanic / Latino(13) | 3.6% | 19.3% |
▶Native American / Alaska Native(4) | 3.6% | 0.9% |
▶Black / African American(10) | 1.9% | 12.2% |
▶Asian(6) | 0.8% | 6.0% |
▶Native Hawaiian / Pacific Islander(3) | 0.4% | 0.2% |
▶Middle Eastern / North African(4) | 0.2% | 0.9% |
Method notes
Religious Adherents
Population that are religious adherents:
57.8%
Catholic-Evangelical edge: +23.1pp (vs national 4.5pp). A strongly Catholic-leaning religious profile, which nationally correlates with Democratic-leaning urban and suburban communities.
| Tradition | % Pop | % Adherents | US Pop | US Adherents |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 28.1% | 48.6% | — | — | |
| 15.6% | 27.1% | — | — | |
| 12.1% | 21.0% | — | — | |
| 1.9% | 3.3% | — | — | |
LDS (Mormon) | 1.1% | 1.9% | — | — |
Non-religiousPopulation | 42.2% | — | — | — |
Who lives in the Bismarck, ND metro area? 136,216 residents across 3 counties.
Demographics
Read this geography's profile in three layers: local, state (where available), and national baseline.
Population & electorate
Scale, voting-age share, and this geography's footprint inside the national electorate.
Total population
136K
Share of U.S. population
0.04%
Voting-age population
73.4%
Economic profile
Income, attainment, and ownership indicators that often shape coalition structure and turnout behavior.
Median household income
$84,864
Poverty rate
7.9%
College degree
36.3%
Homeownership
72.2%
Community profile
Age structure, language use, and nativity signals that explain how this geography differs from state and nation.
Median age
38.4 yrs
Age 18–29
15.3%
Age 65+
17.9%
Foreign born
2.7%
Non-English at home
4.7%
English only
95.3%
Turnout in Bismarck, ND
Estimated using 2020 Census voting-age population.
70.4%
+2.0pp
100,045
1988–2024
How competitive is Bismarck, ND?
Safe RAvg margin: R+45.4 (last 3 elections)
2008
R+23.0
2012
R+31.8
2016
R+47.2
2020
R+43.2
2024
R+45.8
24.2pp
0
R+38.2
Do voters in Bismarck, ND split their tickets?
Divergence between offices in the same election reveals persuadable voters.
Heavy splitting (0/100)
| Offices | Margin A | Margin B | Split |
|---|---|---|---|
| Senate vs Governor | R+41.0 | R+50.7 | 9.7pp |
| President vs Governor | R+45.8 | R+50.7 | 4.9pp |
| President vs Senate | R+45.8 | R+41.0 | 4.8pp |
Average divergence across office pairs: 22.7pp
Located In
Bismarck, ND sits inside these higher-level geographies.
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