Fargo, ND-MN
Latest: 2024
Leans Republican — shifted 5.2pp toward Republicans in 2024 — 259K residents — 2 counties
Race & ancestry
| Group | % |
|---|---|
▶White (Non-Hispanic)(13) | 81.8% |
▶Hispanic / Latino(14) | 3.9% |
▶Black / African American(13) | 6.4% |
▶Asian(6) | 2.8% |
▶Middle Eastern / North African(8) | 0.3% |
▶Native American / Alaska Native(5) | 0.9% |
Multiracial / Other | 4.1% |
Religious adherence
| Tradition | % Pop | % Adherents |
|---|---|---|
| Mainline Protestant | 22.6% | 46.9% |
| Catholic | 13.6% | 28.3% |
| Evangelical Protestant | 10.7% | 22.3% |
| Other | 1.1% | 2.3% |
| LDS (Mormon) | 0.6% | 1.2% |
| Orthodox Christian | 0.1% | 0.2% |
| Non-religious | 51.9% | — |
Presidential results
| Year | Result |
|---|---|
| 2024 | Trump+6.0 |
| 2020 | Trump+0.8 |
| 2016 | Trump+8.2 |
| 2012 | Obama+0.1 |
| 2008 | Obama+9.6 |
| 2004 | Bush+15.9 |
| 2000 | Bush+16.6 |
| 1996 | Dole+1.2 |
| 1992 | Bush+9.2 |
Fargo, ND-MN is a metro area that has a population of 259,459. In the 2024 presidential election, it voted Republican with a margin of R+6.0. Akashic Edge tracks 39 presidential elections here, dating back to 1872.
| Year | Dem % | Rep % | Margin | Swing |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2024 | 45.6% | 51.6% | R+6.0 | R+5.2 |
| 2020 | 47.9% | 48.7% | R+0.8 | D+7.3 |
| 2016 | 40.2% | 48.4% | R+8.2 | R+8.3 |
| 2012 | 48.6% | 48.4% | D+0.1 | R+9.5 |
| 2008 | 53.7% | 44.1% | D+9.6 | D+25.5 |
| 2004 | 41.3% | 57.2% | R+15.9 | D+0.7 |
| 2000 | 38.3% | 54.9% | R+16.6 | R+15.4 |
| 1996 | 44.8% | 46.0% | R+1.2 | D+8.1 |
| 1992 | 36.5% | 45.7% | R+9.2 | R+3.9 |
| 1988 | 47.0% | 52.3% | R+5.3 | D+12.5 |
| 1984 | 40.7% | 58.6% | R+17.9 | 0.0 |
| 1980 | 34.0% | 51.9% | R+17.9 | R+11.3 |
| 1976 | 45.6% | 52.1% | R+6.6 | D+10.6 |
| 1972 | 40.8% | 57.9% | R+17.1 | R+7.2 |
| 1968 | 42.9% | 52.8% | R+9.9 | R+25.0 |
| 1964 | 57.5% | 42.4% | D+15.1 | D+29.0 |
| 1960 | 43.0% | 57.0% | R+14.0 | D+5.8 |
| 1956 | 40.1% | 59.8% | R+19.8 | D+8.1 |
| 1952 | 36.0% | 63.9% | R+27.9 | R+30.4 |
| 1948 | 50.2% | 47.7% | D+2.5 | — |
What defines Fargo, ND-MN?
Fargo, ND-MN has been won by both parties in the last 6 presidential elections (2D, 4R) — a genuine swing geography. It has a highly educated electorate (42% college-educated) — a demographic increasingly aligned with Democrats nationwide.
Constituent Counties
Similar metro areas
Nearest neighbors matched on the same place-page feature set used across the dossier system.
Grand Forks, ND-MN
Educated rural competitive
Sioux Falls, SD-MN
Educated rural competitive 2
Clarksville, TN-KY
Educated rural competitive 2
South Bend-Mishawaka, IN-MI
Educated rural competitive 2
Lincoln, NE
Educated rural competitive
Omaha, NE-IA
Educated rural competitive 2
La Crosse-Onalaska, WI-MN
Educated rural competitive 2
Columbia, MO
Educated rural competitive
Counties in Fargo, ND-MN
2024 presidential results across the counties that make up this geography.
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Ask the Historian
Explore Fargo, ND-MN's political evolution with the Historian
Key Insights
High-confidence patterns distilled from this geography's election history.
- The 2012 election was decided by just 0.1 points — razor-thin
- Won by both parties in recent history — Democrats most recently in 2012, Republicans in 2024
- College attainment is 42% — 9pp above the national average. Similar education levels correlate with Democratic lean nationally
Who Lives Here
A race-first Census view with ancestry expansion where source coverage is strong enough to support detail.
Census race profile
Major Census race and ethnicity groups shown as a share of total population.
| Group | Fargo, ND-MN | National |
|---|---|---|
▶White (Non-Hispanic)(13) | 81.8% | 57.4% |
▶Black / African American(13) | 6.4% | 12.2% |
Multiracial / Other | 4.1% | 4.0% |
▶Hispanic / Latino(14) | 3.9% | 19.3% |
▶Asian(6) | 2.8% | 6.0% |
▶Native American / Alaska Native(5) | 0.9% | 0.9% |
▶Middle Eastern / North African(8) | 0.3% | 0.9% |
Method notes
Religious Adherents
Population that are religious adherents:
48.1%
| Tradition | % Pop | % Adherents | US Pop | US Adherents |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 22.6% | 46.9% | — | — | |
| 13.6% | 28.3% | — | — | |
| 10.7% | 22.3% | — | — | |
| 1.1% | 2.3% | — | — | |
LDS (Mormon) | 0.6% | 1.2% | — | — |
| 0.1% | 0.2% | — | — | |
Non-religiousPopulation | 51.9% | — | — | — |
Who lives in the Fargo, ND-MN metro area? 259,459 residents across 2 counties.
Demographics
Read this geography's profile in three layers: local, state (where available), and national baseline.
42% of adults hold a bachelor's degree — 9pp above the national average. Places with similar education levels vote D+16 on average nationally.
Population & electorate
Scale, voting-age share, and this geography's footprint inside the national electorate.
Total population
259K
Share of U.S. population
0.08%
Voting-age population
73.5%
Economic profile
Income, attainment, and ownership indicators that often shape coalition structure and turnout behavior.
Median household income
$76,900
Poverty rate
11.6%
College degree
41.8%
Homeownership
55.3%
Community profile
Age structure, language use, and nativity signals that explain how this geography differs from state and nation.
Median age
33.0 yrs
Age 18–29
22.4%
Age 65+
13.3%
Foreign born
6.8%
Non-English at home
8.4%
English only
91.6%
Turnout in Fargo, ND-MN
Estimated using 2020 Census voting-age population.
64.8%
+2.8pp
190,822
1988–2024
How competitive is Fargo, ND-MN?
Lean RAvg margin: R+5.0 (last 3 elections)
2008
D+9.6
2012
D+0.1
2016
R+8.2
2020
R+0.8
2024
R+6.0
17.8pp
2
R+1.0
Do voters in Fargo, ND-MN split their tickets?
Divergence between offices in the same election reveals persuadable voters.
Heavy splitting (0/100)
| Offices | Margin A | Margin B | Split |
|---|---|---|---|
| Senate vs Governor | R+2.3 | R+17.4 | 15.2pp |
| President vs Governor | R+6.0 | R+17.4 | 11.4pp |
| President vs Senate | R+6.0 | R+2.3 | 3.7pp |
Average divergence across office pairs: 26.4pp
Located In
Fargo, ND-MN sits inside these higher-level geographies.
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