How did South Bend-Mishawaka, IN-MI vote in the 2024 presidential election?

South Bend-Mishawaka, IN-MI voted Republican in 2024 with a margin of R+5.6. Kamala D Harris received 64,265 votes and Donald Trump received 72,090 out of 138,694 total votes cast, a 5.0-point shift toward Republicans from 2020.

What is South Bend-Mishawaka, IN-MI's political history?

South Bend-Mishawaka, IN-MI has 40 presidential elections on record, spanning 1868 to 2024. Democrats have won 15 and Republicans 25 of those contests. The largest single-election swing was 32.8 points in 1932.

What are the demographics of South Bend-Mishawaka, IN-MI?

South Bend-Mishawaka, IN-MI has a population of 324,560 according to the 2020 Census. The racial composition is 71.3% non-Hispanic white, 9.6% Hispanic, 11.1% Black. About 32% of residents hold a bachelor's degree or higher. Median household income is $67,458.

Which places are most similar to South Bend-Mishawaka, IN-MI?

Based on demographic and electoral similarity analysis, the three most similar metro areas to South Bend-Mishawaka, IN-MI are Davenport-Moline-Rock Island, IA-IL, Sioux City, IA-NE-SD, Memphis, TN-MS-AR. Similarity is computed using a vector embedding of demographic, economic, and electoral characteristics.

South Bend-Mishawaka, IN-MI

Latest: 2024↓ R+5.0 vs 2020

Leans Republican — shifted 5.0pp toward Republicans in 2024 — 325K residents — 2 counties

Ask Historian Open in Explore CompareShare image

Race & ancestry

Group	%
▶White (Non-Hispanic)(13)	71.3%
▶Hispanic / Latino(16)	9.6%
▶Black / African American(12)	11.1%
▶Asian(6)	2.4%
▶Middle Eastern / North African(11)	0.6%
▶Native American / Alaska Native(3)	0.4%
▶Native Hawaiian / Pacific Islander(3)	0.1%
Multiracial / Other	5.0%

View full demographics →

Religious adherence

Tradition	% Pop	% Adherents
Catholic	15.6%	42.0%
Evangelical Protestant	12.1%	32.5%
Mainline Protestant	4.2%	11.3%
Black Protestant	3.0%	8.1%
Other	2.1%	5.6%
LDS (Mormon)	0.4%	1.1%
Orthodox Christian	0.2%	0.5%
Non-religious	62.8%	—

View full religion →

Presidential results

Year	Result
2024	Trump+5.6
2020	Trump+0.6
2016	Trump+5.0
2012	Obama+0.6
2008	Obama+14.9
2004	Bush+4.6
2000	Bush+1.4
1996	Clinton+7.4
1992	Clinton+6.4

View full election history →

South Bend-Mishawaka, IN-MI is a metro area that has a population of 324,560. In the 2024 presidential election, it voted Republican with a margin of R+5.6. Akashic Edge tracks 40 presidential elections here, dating back to 1868.

South Bend-Mishawaka, IN-MI Presidential Election Results, 1948–2024
Year	Dem %	Rep %	Margin	Swing
2024	46.3%	52.0%	R+5.6	R+5.0
2020	48.9%	49.5%	R+0.6	D+4.4
2016	44.3%	49.3%	R+5.0	R+5.6
2012	49.5%	48.9%	D+0.6	R+14.3
2008	56.8%	41.9%	D+14.9	D+19.5
2004	47.3%	51.9%	R+4.6	R+3.2
2000	48.6%	49.9%	R+1.4	R+8.8
1996	48.5%	41.1%	D+7.4	D+1.1
1992	43.5%	37.1%	D+6.4	D+10.0
1988	48.0%	51.6%	R+3.6	D+6.2
1984	44.8%	54.6%	R+9.8	R+1.3
1980	41.7%	50.3%	R+8.6	R+5.8
1976	48.2%	50.9%	R+2.7	D+20.6
1972	38.0%	61.3%	R+23.3	R+22.4
1968	43.5%	44.4%	R+0.9	R+24.7
1964	61.6%	37.8%	D+23.8	D+17.9
1960	52.8%	46.9%	D+5.9	D+12.0
1956	46.7%	52.8%	R+6.1	R+2.6
1952	47.9%	51.4%	R+3.5	R+11.4
1948	53.1%	45.3%	D+7.9	—

Political Identity

What defines South Bend-Mishawaka, IN-MI?

South Bend-Mishawaka, IN-MI has been won by both parties in the last 6 presidential elections (2D, 4R) — a genuine swing geography. It has a moderately diverse, middle-class electorate where education levels and suburban growth shape the partisan balance.

Constituent Counties

Open in Cartographer

Similarity Explorer

Similar metro areas

Nearest neighbors matched on the same place-page feature set used across the dossier system.

8 visible matches

Davenport-Moline-Rock Island, IA-IL

Educated rural competitive 2

R+3.1

Similarity score94%

Sioux City, IA-NE-SD

Educated rural competitive 2

R+26.4

Similarity score90%

Memphis, TN-MS-AR

Educated rural competitive 2

D+6.5

Similarity score90%

Philadelphia-Camden-Wilmington, PA-NJ-DE-MD

Educated rural competitive 2

D+25.4

Similarity score90%

Allentown-Bethlehem-Easton, PA-NJ

Educated rural competitive 2

R+4.9

Similarity score88%

Cincinnati, OH-KY-IN

Educated rural competitive 2

R+15.8

Similarity score88%

Omaha, NE-IA

Educated rural competitive 2

R+3.5

Similarity score87%

Providence-Warwick, RI-MA

Educated rural competitive 2

D+9.3

Similarity score87%

Constituent Geography

Counties in South Bend-Mishawaka, IN-MI

2024 presidential results across the counties that make up this geography.

Sort:

County	Pop.	Margin	Dem	Rep	Total	Share
St. Joseph	273K	D+1.5	55,215	53,585	110,823	79.9%
Cass	52K	R+33.9	9,050	18,505	27,871	20.1%

2 countiesTotal votes: 138,694

Historian Query

Ask the Historian

Explore South Bend-Mishawaka, IN-MI's political evolution with the Historian

“How has the South Bend-Mishawaka, IN-MI metro area voted in presidential elections?”

Automated Readout

Key Insights

High-confidence patterns distilled from this geography's election history.

The 2020 election was decided by just 0.6 points — razor-thin
Split-ticket voting in 2024: Different parties won President and Governor
Won by both parties in recent history — Democrats most recently in 2012, Republicans in 2024

Race & Ancestry

Who Lives Here

A race-first Census view with ancestry expansion where source coverage is strong enough to support detail.

South Bend-Mishawaka, IN-MICensus ACS 2024Ancestry detail available

Census race profile

Major Census race and ethnicity groups shown as a share of total population.

Expand rows for ancestry detail

White (Non-Hispanic) 71.3%Black 11.1%Hispanic 9.6%Multiracial 5.0%Asian 2.4%Native American 0.4%

Group	Local	National
▶White (Non-Hispanic)(13)	71.3%	57.4%
▶Black / African American(12)	11.1%	12.2%
▶Hispanic / Latino(16)	9.6%	19.3%
Multiracial / Other	5.0%	4.0%
▶Asian(6)	2.4%	6.0%
▶Middle Eastern / North African(11)	0.6%	0.9%
▶Native American / Alaska Native(3)	0.4%	0.9%
▶Native Hawaiian / Pacific Islander(3)	0.1%	0.2%

Method notes

Census treats race and Hispanic/Latino origin as separate questions. Race categories other than Hispanic reflect total populations (small Hispanic overlap in Black, Asian, AIAN, NHPI). “Multiracial / Other” is derived as a non-overlapping remainder.

Click rows to expand ancestry detail. Ancestry from ACS B04006, B03001, B02020, B02016. Totals may differ from race — individuals can report multiple ancestries.

Black / African American (estimated remainder) is derived as Black population share minus reported Sub-Saharan African and West Indian ancestry. It is shown as an estimated ancestry detail, not a standalone Census ancestry category.

MENA estimated from ancestry reporting — Census does not have a separate MENA race category. Not shown in bar (overlaps with other race groups).

Religious Adherents

Population that are religious adherents:

37.2%(120.8K people)

U.S. Religion Census 2020

Browse all religions

Tradition	% Pop	% Adherents	US Pop	US Adherents
Catholic	15.6%	42.0%	—	—
Evangelical Protestant	12.1%	32.5%	—	—
Mainline Protestant	4.2%	11.3%	—	—
Black Protestant	3.0%	8.1%	—	—
Other	2.1%	5.6%	—	—
LDS (Mormon)	0.4%	1.1%	—	—
Orthodox Christian	0.2%	0.5%	—	—
Non-religiousPopulation	62.8%	—	—	—

Click the chevron to expand denominations. Tradition and denomination rows label both share of total population and share of all religious adherents. Non-religious is shown as a share of total population only.

Who lives in the South Bend-Mishawaka, IN-MI metro area? 324,560 residents across 2 counties.

Demographic Comparison

Demographics

Read this geography's profile in three layers: local, state (where available), and national baseline.

South Bend-Mishawaka, IN-MI vs National325K residents

Population & electorate

Scale, voting-age share, and this geography's footprint inside the national electorate.

Total population

Local vs state vs U.S.

325K

local

325KNational 334.9M

Share of U.S. population

Local vs state vs U.S.

0.10%

local

0.10%National 100%

Voting-age population

Local vs state vs U.S.

73.5%

local

73.5%National 75.7%

Economic profile

Income, attainment, and ownership indicators that often shape coalition structure and turnout behavior.

Median household income

Local vs state vs U.S.

$67,458

local

$67,458National $83,960

Poverty rate

Local vs state vs U.S.

13.8%

local

13.8%National 12.5%

College degree

Local vs state vs U.S.

31.6%

local

31.6%National 35.6%

Homeownership

Local vs state vs U.S.

71.1%

local

71.1%National 65.2%

Community profile

Age structure, language use, and nativity signals that explain how this geography differs from state and nation.

Median age

Local vs state vs U.S.

38.1 yrs

local

38.1 yrsNational 39.1 yrs

Age 18–29

Local vs state vs U.S.

17.2%

local

17.2%National 15.7%

Age 65+

Local vs state vs U.S.

17.8%

local

17.8%National 17.0%

Foreign born

Local vs state vs U.S.

6.2%

local

6.2%National 14.1%

Non-English at home

Local vs state vs U.S.

10.0%

local

10.0%National 22.2%

English only

Local vs state vs U.S.

90.0%

local

90.0%National 77.8%

Voter Turnout

Turnout in South Bend-Mishawaka, IN-MI

Estimated using 2020 Census voting-age population.

2024 Turnout

58.1%

vs Previous

-1.1pp

Voting-Age Pop

238,665

History

1988–2024

Competitiveness

How competitive is South Bend-Mishawaka, IN-MI?

Tilt RAvg margin: R+3.8 (last 3 elections)

2008

D+14.9

2012

D+0.6

2016

R+5.0

2020

R+0.6

2024

R+5.6

Elasticity

20.5pp

margin range

Party Flips

last 30 years

5-Elec Avg

D+0.8

Ticket-Splitting

Do voters in South Bend-Mishawaka, IN-MI split their tickets?

Divergence between offices in the same election reveals persuadable voters.

ConsistencyHeavy splitting (0/100)

2024 Office Comparisons

Offices	Margin A	Margin B	Split
Senate vs Governor	R+7.9	D+2.6	10.5pp
President vs Governor	R+5.6	D+2.6	8.2pp
President vs Senate	R+5.6	R+7.9	2.3pp

Average divergence across office pairs: 19.8pp

Containing Geography

Located In

South Bend-Mishawaka, IN-MI sits inside these higher-level geographies.

Indiana(State)Michigan(State)

Upgrade Path

Unlock Metro Area Analytics

Advance from the public dossier into precinct-level, insight-rich district intelligence.

Target plan Pro$33/mo

Precinct data, Smart Insights, full history, and export controls tailored to place pages.

Precinct-Level Data

See results for every neighborhood and voting precinct

Smart Insights

Automated highlights from recent election patterns

Full Historical Access

165 years of election data at every level of geography

CSV Exports

Download any table or chart as a CSV file

Upgrade to Pro$33/mo