Memphis, TN-MS-AR
Latest: 2024
Leans Democratic — shifted 6.6pp toward Republicans in 2024 — 1.3M residents — 9 counties
Race & ancestry
| Group | % |
|---|---|
▶White (Non-Hispanic)(13) | 40.3% |
▶Hispanic / Latino(18) | 7.5% |
▶Black / African American(15) | 46.5% |
▶Asian(6) | 2.3% |
▶Middle Eastern / North African(10) | 0.4% |
▶Native American / Alaska Native(1) | 0.3% |
▶Native Hawaiian / Pacific Islander(3) | 0.1% |
Multiracial / Other | 3.0% |
Religious adherence
| Tradition | % Pop | % Adherents |
|---|---|---|
| Evangelical Protestant | 32.7% | 50.6% |
| Black Protestant | 17.1% | 26.5% |
| Mainline Protestant | 5.8% | 9.0% |
| Catholic | 4.8% | 7.5% |
| Other | 4.0% | 6.2% |
| LDS (Mormon) | 0.7% | 1.1% |
| Orthodox Christian | 0.1% | 0.2% |
| Non-religious | 35.4% | — |
Presidential results
| Year | Result |
|---|---|
| 2024 | Harris+6.5 |
| 2020 | Biden+13.2 |
| 2016 | Clinton+10.6 |
| 2012 | Obama+12.2 |
| 2008 | Obama+13.5 |
| 2004 | Kerry+5.7 |
| 2000 | Gore+7.3 |
| 1996 | Clinton+10.4 |
| 1992 | Clinton+8.5 |
Memphis, TN-MS-AR is a metro area that has a population of 1,341,924. In the 2024 presidential election, it voted Democratic with a margin of D+6.5. Akashic Edge tracks 40 presidential elections here, dating back to 1868.
| Year | Dem % | Rep % | Margin | Swing |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2024 | 52.4% | 45.8% | D+6.5 | R+6.6 |
| 2020 | 55.8% | 42.6% | D+13.2 | D+2.6 |
| 2016 | 53.6% | 43.0% | D+10.6 | R+1.6 |
| 2012 | 55.6% | 43.4% | D+12.2 | R+1.3 |
| 2008 | 56.4% | 42.9% | D+13.5 | D+7.8 |
| 2004 | 52.5% | 46.9% | D+5.7 | R+1.6 |
| 2000 | 53.0% | 45.7% | D+7.3 | R+3.1 |
| 1996 | 52.9% | 42.5% | D+10.4 | D+1.9 |
| 1992 | 51.1% | 42.5% | D+8.5 | D+13.4 |
| 1988 | 47.3% | 52.1% | R+4.9 | R+1.4 |
| 1984 | 47.9% | 51.4% | R+3.5 | R+9.9 |
| 1980 | 51.8% | 45.3% | D+6.5 | R+4.0 |
| 1976 | 54.6% | 44.2% | D+10.5 | D+44.9 |
| 1972 | 31.8% | 66.2% | R+34.5 | R+40.3 |
| 1968 | 34.6% | 28.8% | D+5.8 | D+4.4 |
| 1964 | 50.7% | 49.3% | D+1.4 | D+0.2 |
| 1960 | 48.8% | 47.6% | D+1.2 | R+1.4 |
| 1956 | 48.2% | 45.6% | D+2.6 | R+7.3 |
| 1952 | 54.9% | 45.0% | D+9.9 | R+6.8 |
| 1948 | 35.5% | 18.9% | D+16.7 | — |
What defines Memphis, TN-MS-AR?
It has a plurality-minority electorate (60% nonwhite) where demographic change is reshaping the political map.
Constituent Counties
Similar metro areas
Nearest neighbors matched on the same place-page feature set used across the dossier system.
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Louisville/Jefferson County, KY-IN
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Charlotte-Concord-Gastonia, NC-SC
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South Bend-Mishawaka, IN-MI
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LaGrange, GA-AL
Rural Republican 2
Counties in Memphis, TN-MS-AR
2024 presidential results across the counties that make up this geography.
Sort:
| County | Pop. | Margin | Dem | Rep | Total | Share |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Shelby | 919K | D+25.4 | 201,759 | 118,917 | 326,497 | 64.6% |
| DeSoto | 191K | R+24.1 | 29,023 | 48,064 | 79,082 | 15.7% |
| Tipton | 62K | R+52.8 | 6,178 | 20,303 | 26,733 | 5.3% |
| Crittenden | 47K | D+2.3 | 7,362 | 7,028 | 14,681 | 2.9% |
| Fayette | 43K | R+42.4 | 6,720 | 16,756 | 23,696 | 4.7% |
| Marshall | 34K | R+7.3 | 6,888 | 7,977 | 14,983 | 3.0% |
| Tate | 28K | R+43.8 | 3,555 | 9,185 | 12,861 | 2.5% |
| Tunica | 9K | D+38.9 | 1,837 | 799 | 2,668 | 0.5% |
| Benton | 8K | R+31.4 | 1,318 | 2,535 | 3,880 | 0.8% |
9 countiesTotal votes: 505,081
Ask the Historian
Explore Memphis, TN-MS-AR's political evolution with the Historian
Key Insights
High-confidence patterns distilled from this geography's election history.
- Has voted Democratic in the last 5 presidential elections
- Turnout decreased by 5.8 percentage points since the previous presidential election
- Swung 6.6 points toward Republican between 2020 and 2024
Who Lives Here
A race-first Census view with ancestry expansion where source coverage is strong enough to support detail.
Census race profile
Major Census race and ethnicity groups shown as a share of total population.
| Group | Memphis, TN-MS-AR | National |
|---|---|---|
▶Black / African American(15) | 46.5% | 12.2% |
▶White (Non-Hispanic)(13) | 40.3% | 57.4% |
▶Hispanic / Latino(18) | 7.5% | 19.3% |
Multiracial / Other | 3.0% | 4.0% |
▶Asian(6) | 2.3% | 6.0% |
▶Middle Eastern / North African(10) | 0.4% | 0.9% |
▶Native American / Alaska Native(1) | 0.3% | 0.9% |
▶Native Hawaiian / Pacific Islander(3) | 0.1% | 0.2% |
Method notes
Religious Adherents
Population that are religious adherents:
64.6%
Catholic-Evangelical edge: -47.6pp (vs national 4.5pp). A strongly Evangelical-leaning religious profile, which nationally correlates with Republican-leaning rural and exurban communities.
| Tradition | % Pop | % Adherents | US Pop | US Adherents |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 32.7% | 50.6% | — | — | |
| 17.1% | 26.5% | — | — | |
| 5.8% | 9.0% | — | — | |
| 4.8% | 7.5% | — | — | |
| 4.0% | 6.2% | — | — | |
LDS (Mormon) | 0.7% | 1.1% | — | — |
| 0.1% | 0.2% | — | — | |
Non-religiousPopulation | 35.4% | — | — | — |
Who lives in the Memphis, TN-MS-AR metro area? 1,341,924 residents across 9 counties.
Demographics
Read this geography's profile in three layers: local, state (where available), and national baseline.
Population & electorate
Scale, voting-age share, and this geography's footprint inside the national electorate.
Total population
1.3M
Share of U.S. population
0.40%
Voting-age population
73.6%
Economic profile
Income, attainment, and ownership indicators that often shape coalition structure and turnout behavior.
Median household income
$67,242
Poverty rate
16.6%
College degree
31.1%
Homeownership
60.5%
Community profile
Age structure, language use, and nativity signals that explain how this geography differs from state and nation.
Median age
36.9 yrs
Age 18–29
15.7%
Age 65+
15.1%
Foreign born
6.3%
Non-English at home
9.2%
English only
90.8%
Turnout in Memphis, TN-MS-AR
Estimated using 2020 Census voting-age population.
51.1%
-5.8pp
987,764
1988–2024
How competitive is Memphis, TN-MS-AR?
Likely DAvg margin: D+10.1 (last 3 elections)
2008
D+13.5
2012
D+12.2
2016
D+10.6
2020
D+13.2
2024
D+6.5
6.9pp
0
D+11.2
Do voters in Memphis, TN-MS-AR split their tickets?
Divergence between offices in the same election reveals persuadable voters.
Heavy splitting (0/100)
| Offices | Margin A | Margin B | Split |
|---|---|---|---|
| President vs Senate | D+6.5 | D+3.6 | 2.9pp |
Average divergence across office pairs: 17.2pp
Located In
Memphis, TN-MS-AR sits inside these higher-level geographies.
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