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Louisville/Jefferson County, KY-IN

Louisville/Jefferson County, KY-IN

Latest: 2024↓ R+4.5 vs 2020

Leans Republican — shifted 4.5pp toward Republicans in 2024 — 1.4M residents — 12 counties

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Race & ancestry
Group%
▶White (Non-Hispanic)(13)
72.4%
▶Hispanic / Latino(18)
7.0%
▶Black / African American(16)
13.5%
▶Asian(6)
2.2%
▶Middle Eastern / North African(10)
0.5%
▶Native American / Alaska Native(1)
0.2%
Multiracial / Other
4.7%
View full demographics →
Religious adherence
Tradition% Pop% Adherents
Evangelical Protestant21.0%45.9%
Catholic12.1%26.3%
Mainline Protestant4.9%10.7%
Black Protestant4.3%9.4%
Other3.3%7.2%
LDS (Mormon)0.8%1.7%
Orthodox Christian0.2%0.4%
Non-religious54.2%—
View full religion →
Presidential results
YearResult
2024Trump+6.6
2020Trump+2.1
2016Trump+6.8
2012Romney+2.8
2008McCain+0.4
2004Bush+9.6
2000Bush+6.0
1996Clinton+6.6
1992Clinton+8.9
View full election history →

Louisville/Jefferson County, KY-IN is a metro area that has a population of 1,372,558. In the 2024 presidential election, it voted Republican with a margin of R+6.6. Akashic Edge tracks 40 presidential elections here, dating back to 1868.

Louisville/Jefferson County, KY-IN Presidential Election Results, 1948–2024
YearDem %Rep %MarginSwing
202445.8%52.4%R+6.6R+4.5
202048.0%50.1%R+2.1D+4.6
201644.0%50.7%R+6.8R+4.0
201247.7%50.5%R+2.8R+2.4
200849.1%49.5%R+0.4D+9.2
200444.8%54.4%R+9.6R+3.6
200045.9%51.9%R+6.0R+12.6
199649.0%42.4%D+6.6R+2.3
199247.3%38.4%D+8.9D+16.3
198846.1%53.5%R+7.4D+10.5
198440.8%58.7%R+17.9R+16.8
198047.3%48.3%R+1.0R+2.8
197649.8%48.1%D+1.7D+23.9
197237.9%60.1%R+22.2R+21.3
196841.0%41.9%R+0.9R+32.3
196465.5%34.1%D+31.4D+30.6
196050.4%49.6%D+0.8D+13.5
195643.4%56.1%R+12.7R+7.7
195247.2%52.3%R+5.1R+13.1
194853.1%45.0%D+8.0—
Political Identity

What defines Louisville/Jefferson County, KY-IN?

It has a moderately diverse, middle-class electorate where education levels and suburban growth shape the partisan balance.

Constituent Counties

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Similarity Explorer

Similar metro areas

Nearest neighbors matched on the same place-page feature set used across the dossier system.
8 visible matches
Constituent Geography

Counties in Louisville/Jefferson County, KY-IN

2024 presidential results across the counties that make up this geography.
Sort:
CountyPop.MarginDemRepTotalShare
Jefferson783K
D+16.5
203,070144,553354,09454.5%
Clark124K
R+20.3
22,81034,73458,6129.0%
Bullitt84K
R+51.0
10,28032,29943,2096.7%
Floyd81K
R+15.5
17,02523,40841,1816.3%
Oldham69K
R+22.6
14,40223,02538,2105.9%
Shelby49K
R+34.7
7,82216,35624,6203.8%
Nelson48K
R+41.7
6,51516,05222,8523.5%
Harrison40K
R+46.9
5,23314,83020,4483.1%
Meade30K
R+52.0
3,27910,63014,1232.2%
Washington28K
R+54.8
2,7649,73912,7232.0%
Spencer20K
R+56.7
2,4158,92711,4801.8%
Henry16K
R+52.5
1,8576,0938,0741.2%
12 countiesTotal votes: 649,626
Historian Query

Ask the Historian

Explore Louisville/Jefferson County, KY-IN's political evolution with the Historian
Automated Readout

Key Insights

High-confidence patterns distilled from this geography's election history.
  • Has voted Republican in the last 5 presidential elections
  • The 2008 election was decided by just 0.4 points — razor-thin
  • Swung 4.5 points toward Republican between 2020 and 2024
Race & Ancestry

Who Lives Here

A race-first Census view with ancestry expansion where source coverage is strong enough to support detail.
Louisville/Jefferson County, KY-INCensus ACS 2024Ancestry detail available
Census race profile
Major Census race and ethnicity groups shown as a share of total population.
Expand rows for ancestry detail
White (Non-Hispanic) 72.4%Black 13.5%Hispanic 7.0%Multiracial 4.7%Asian 2.2%
GroupLocalNational
▶White (Non-Hispanic)(13)
72.4%57.4%
▶Black / African American(16)
13.5%12.2%
▶Hispanic / Latino(18)
7.0%19.3%
Multiracial / Other
4.7%4.0%
▶Asian(6)
2.2%6.0%
▶Middle Eastern / North African(10)
0.5%0.9%
▶Native American / Alaska Native(1)
0.2%0.9%
Method notes

Census treats race and Hispanic/Latino origin as separate questions. Race categories other than Hispanic reflect total populations (small Hispanic overlap in Black, Asian, AIAN, NHPI). “Multiracial / Other” is derived as a non-overlapping remainder.

Click rows to expand ancestry detail. Ancestry from ACS B04006, B03001, B02020, B02016. Totals may differ from race — individuals can report multiple ancestries.

Black / African American (estimated remainder) is derived as Black population share minus reported Sub-Saharan African and West Indian ancestry. It is shown as an estimated ancestry detail, not a standalone Census ancestry category.

MENA estimated from ancestry reporting — Census does not have a separate MENA race category. Not shown in bar (overlaps with other race groups).

Religious Adherents

Population that are religious adherents:
45.8%(628.8K people)
U.S. Religion Census 2020
Browse all religions

Catholic-Evangelical edge: -24.0pp (vs national 4.5pp). A strongly Evangelical-leaning religious profile, which nationally correlates with Republican-leaning rural and exurban communities.

Tradition% Pop% AdherentsUS PopUS Adherents
Evangelical Protestant
21.0%45.9%——
Catholic
12.1%26.3%——
Mainline Protestant
4.9%10.7%——
Black Protestant
4.3%9.4%——
Other
3.3%7.2%——
LDS (Mormon)
0.8%1.7%——
Orthodox Christian
0.2%0.4%——
Non-religiousPopulation
54.2%———
Click the chevron to expand denominations. Tradition and denomination rows label both share of total population and share of all religious adherents. Non-religious is shown as a share of total population only.

Who lives in the Louisville/Jefferson County, KY-IN metro area? 1,372,558 residents across 12 counties.

Demographic Comparison

Demographics

Read this geography's profile in three layers: local, state (where available), and national baseline.
Louisville/Jefferson County, KY-IN vs National1.4M residents
Population & electorate

Scale, voting-age share, and this geography's footprint inside the national electorate.

Total population
Local vs state vs U.S.
1.4M
local
1.4MNational 334.9M
Share of U.S. population
Local vs state vs U.S.
0.41%
local
0.41%National 100%
Voting-age population
Local vs state vs U.S.
75.9%
local
75.9%National 75.7%
Economic profile

Income, attainment, and ownership indicators that often shape coalition structure and turnout behavior.

Median household income
Local vs state vs U.S.
$74,486
local
$74,486National $83,960
Poverty rate
Local vs state vs U.S.
12.3%
local
12.3%National 12.5%
College degree
Local vs state vs U.S.
33.0%
local
33.0%National 35.6%
Homeownership
Local vs state vs U.S.
68.9%
local
68.9%National 65.2%
Community profile

Age structure, language use, and nativity signals that explain how this geography differs from state and nation.

Median age
Local vs state vs U.S.
39.4 yrs
local
39.4 yrsNational 39.1 yrs
Age 18–29
Local vs state vs U.S.
14.8%
local
14.8%National 15.7%
Age 65+
Local vs state vs U.S.
17.1%
local
17.1%National 17.0%
Foreign born
Local vs state vs U.S.
7.0%
local
7.0%National 14.1%
Non-English at home
Local vs state vs U.S.
9.3%
local
9.3%National 22.2%
English only
Local vs state vs U.S.
90.7%
local
90.7%National 77.8%
Voter Turnout

Turnout in Louisville/Jefferson County, KY-IN

Estimated using 2020 Census voting-age population.
2024 Turnout
62.4%
vs Previous
-2.8pp
Voting-Age Pop
1,041,450
History
1988–2024
Competitiveness

How competitive is Louisville/Jefferson County, KY-IN?

Lean RAvg margin: R+5.2 (last 3 elections)
2008
R+0.4
2012
R+2.8
2016
R+6.8
2020
R+2.1
2024
R+6.6
Elasticity
6.4pp
margin range
Party Flips
1
last 30 years
5-Elec Avg
R+3.8
Ticket-Splitting

Do voters in Louisville/Jefferson County, KY-IN split their tickets?

Divergence between offices in the same election reveals persuadable voters.
ConsistencyHeavy splitting (0/100)
2024 Office Comparisons
OfficesMargin AMargin BSplit
President vs SenateR+6.6R+25.018.4pp
President vs GovernorR+6.6R+20.413.7pp
Senate vs GovernorR+25.0R+20.44.7pp
Average divergence across office pairs: 19.4pp
Containing Geography

Located In

Louisville/Jefferson County, KY-IN sits inside these higher-level geographies.
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