Vineland, NJ
Competitive — shifted 9.8pp toward Republicans in 2024 — 153K residents — 1 counties
| Group | % |
|---|---|
▶White (Non-Hispanic)(13) | 40.9% |
▶Hispanic / Latino(15) | 35.7% |
▶Black / African American(10) | 17.2% |
▶Asian(6) | 1.5% |
▶Middle Eastern / North African(6) | 0.3% |
▶Native American / Alaska Native(2) | 1.8% |
Multiracial / Other | 2.7% |
| Tradition | % Pop | % Adherents |
|---|---|---|
| Catholic | 21.0% | 47.7% |
| Evangelical Protestant | 10.0% | 22.6% |
| Mainline Protestant | 4.8% | 11.0% |
| Black Protestant | 4.3% | 9.8% |
| Other | 3.7% | 8.4% |
| LDS (Mormon) | 1.0% | 2.2% |
| Orthodox Christian | 0.2% | 0.5% |
| Non-religious | 56.0% | — |
| Year | Result |
|---|---|
| 2024 | Trump+3.8 |
| 2020 | Biden+6.1 |
| 2016 | Clinton+6.1 |
| 2012 | Obama+24.2 |
| 2008 | Obama+21.6 |
| 2004 | Kerry+6.6 |
| 2000 | Gore+19.1 |
| 1996 | Clinton+23.0 |
| 1992 | Clinton+5.7 |
Vineland, NJ is a metro area that has a population of 153,305. In the 2024 presidential election, it voted Republican with a margin of R+3.8. Akashic Edge tracks 40 presidential elections here, dating back to 1868.
| Year | Dem % | Rep % | Margin | Swing |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2024 | 47.6% | 51.3% | R+3.8 | R+9.8 |
| 2020 | 52.3% | 46.3% | D+6.1 | R+0.1 |
| 2016 | 51.1% | 45.0% | D+6.1 | R+18.1 |
| 2012 | 61.5% | 37.3% | D+24.2 | D+2.6 |
| 2008 | 60.0% | 38.4% | D+21.6 | D+15.0 |
| 2004 | 52.4% | 45.8% | D+6.6 | R+12.5 |
| 2000 | 57.9% | 38.8% | D+19.1 | R+3.9 |
| 1996 | 54.7% | 31.7% | D+23.0 | D+17.3 |
| 1992 | 42.6% | 36.9% | D+5.7 | D+14.3 |
| 1988 | 45.2% | 53.8% | R+8.6 | D+7.5 |
| 1984 | 41.3% | 57.5% | R+16.1 | R+7.8 |
| 1980 | 41.7% | 50.1% | R+8.4 | R+25.5 |
| 1976 | 58.0% | 40.8% | D+17.2 | D+34.2 |
| 1972 | 41.2% | 58.2% | R+17.0 | R+24.2 |
| 1968 | 47.6% | 40.4% | D+7.2 | R+38.2 |
| 1964 | 72.7% | 27.3% | D+45.4 | D+41.1 |
| 1960 | 52.1% | 47.8% | D+4.3 | D+20.6 |
| 1956 | 41.8% | 58.1% | R+16.3 | R+9.2 |
| 1952 | 46.3% | 53.4% | R+7.1 | R+2.9 |
| 1948 | 47.0% | 51.2% | R+4.2 | — |
What defines Vineland, NJ?
Vineland, NJ flipped to Republicans in 2024 after voting the other way in 2020. It has a plurality-minority electorate (59% nonwhite) where demographic change is reshaping the political map.
Constituent Counties
Similar metro areas
Counties in Vineland, NJ
| County | Pop. | Margin | Dem | Rep | Total | Share |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Cumberland | 153K | R+3.8 | 26,577 | 28,675 | 55,885 | 100.0% |
Ask the Historian
Key Insights
- Won by both parties in recent history — Democrats most recently in 2020, Republicans in 2024
- Shifted 27.9 points toward Republicans over the last 4 elections
- Highly elastic — margins have ranged 27.9 points across recent elections, suggesting a volatile electorate
Who Lives Here
| Group | Vineland, NJ | National |
|---|---|---|
▶White (Non-Hispanic)(13) | 40.9% | 57.4% |
▶Hispanic / Latino(15) | 35.7% | 19.3% |
▶Black / African American(10) | 17.2% | 12.2% |
Multiracial / Other | 2.7% | 4.0% |
▶Native American / Alaska Native(2) | 1.8% | 0.9% |
▶Asian(6) | 1.5% | 6.0% |
▶Middle Eastern / North African(6) | 0.3% | 0.9% |
Religious Adherents
Catholic-Evangelical edge: +20.5pp (vs national 4.5pp). A strongly Catholic-leaning religious profile, which nationally correlates with Democratic-leaning urban and suburban communities.
| Tradition | % Pop | % Adherents | US Pop | US Adherents |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 21.0% | 47.7% | — | — | |
| 10.0% | 22.6% | — | — | |
| 4.8% | 11.0% | — | — | |
| 4.3% | 9.8% | — | — | |
| 3.7% | 8.4% | — | — | |
LDS (Mormon) | 1.0% | 2.2% | — | — |
| 0.2% | 0.5% | — | — | |
Non-religiousPopulation | 56.0% | — | — | — |
Who lives in the Vineland, NJ metro area? 153,305 residents across 1 counties.
Demographics
19% of adults hold a bachelor's degree — 14pp below the national average. Places with similar education levels vote R+15 on average nationally.
Scale, voting-age share, and this geography's footprint inside the national electorate.
Income, attainment, and ownership indicators that often shape coalition structure and turnout behavior.
Age structure, language use, and nativity signals that explain how this geography differs from state and nation.
Turnout in Vineland, NJ
How competitive is Vineland, NJ?
Do voters in Vineland, NJ split their tickets?
| Offices | Margin A | Margin B | Split |
|---|---|---|---|
| President vs Senate | R+3.8 | R+0.5 | 3.3pp |