Monticello, NY
Safe Republican — shifted 7.5pp toward Republicans in 2024 — 80K residents — 1 counties
| Group | % |
|---|---|
▶White (Non-Hispanic)(13) | 66.0% |
▶Hispanic / Latino(17) | 19.0% |
▶Black / African American(9) | 9.2% |
▶Asian(6) | 2.1% |
▶Middle Eastern / North African(10) | 0.5% |
▶Native American / Alaska Native(1) | 0.6% |
Multiracial / Other | 2.9% |
| Tradition | % Pop | % Adherents |
|---|---|---|
| Catholic | 16.7% | 50.5% |
| Other | 10.3% | 31.1% |
| Mainline Protestant | 4.0% | 12.0% |
| Evangelical Protestant | 1.8% | 5.4% |
| LDS (Mormon) | 0.3% | 1.0% |
| Black Protestant | 0.2% | 0.8% |
| Non-religious | 66.9% | — |
| Year | Result |
|---|---|
| 2024 | Trump+16.6 |
| 2020 | Trump+9.2 |
| 2016 | Trump+11.2 |
| 2012 | Obama+9.0 |
| 2008 | Obama+9.5 |
| 2004 | Bush+0.9 |
| 2000 | Gore+5.8 |
| 1996 | Clinton+20.3 |
| 1992 | Clinton+7.3 |
Monticello, NY is a metro area that has a population of 79,721. In the 2024 presidential election, it voted Republican with a margin of R+16.6. Akashic Edge tracks 40 presidential elections here, dating back to 1868.
| Year | Dem % | Rep % | Margin | Swing |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2024 | 41.5% | 58.1% | R+16.6 | R+7.5 |
| 2020 | 44.7% | 53.9% | R+9.2 | D+2.1 |
| 2016 | 42.0% | 53.2% | R+11.2 | R+20.2 |
| 2012 | 53.7% | 44.7% | D+9.0 | R+0.4 |
| 2008 | 54.0% | 44.6% | D+9.5 | D+10.4 |
| 2004 | 48.6% | 49.5% | R+0.9 | R+6.7 |
| 2000 | 50.3% | 44.5% | D+5.8 | R+14.5 |
| 1996 | 53.3% | 33.0% | D+20.3 | D+13.0 |
| 1992 | 43.4% | 36.0% | D+7.3 | D+22.1 |
| 1988 | 42.2% | 57.0% | R+14.8 | D+11.7 |
| 1984 | 36.6% | 63.1% | R+26.4 | R+6.1 |
| 1980 | 35.1% | 55.4% | R+20.3 | R+22.0 |
| 1976 | 50.5% | 48.8% | D+1.7 | D+28.4 |
| 1972 | 36.6% | 63.2% | R+26.7 | R+21.0 |
| 1968 | 42.5% | 48.2% | R+5.6 | R+40.8 |
| 1964 | 67.5% | 32.3% | D+35.2 | D+44.1 |
| 1960 | 45.4% | 54.4% | R+8.9 | D+18.9 |
| 1956 | 36.1% | 63.9% | R+27.9 | D+4.6 |
| 1952 | 30.7% | 63.2% | R+32.5 | R+12.3 |
| 1948 | 33.0% | 53.2% | R+20.2 | — |
What defines Monticello, NY?
Monticello, NY has been won by both parties in the last 6 presidential elections (2D, 4R) — a genuine swing geography. It has a moderately diverse, middle-class electorate where education levels and suburban growth shape the partisan balance.
Constituent Counties
Similar metro areas
Counties in Monticello, NY
| County | Pop. | Margin | Dem | Rep | Total | Share |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Sullivan | 80K | R+16.6 | 14,549 | 20,386 | 35,062 | 100.0% |
Ask the Historian
Key Insights
- Won by both parties in recent history — Democrats most recently in 2012, Republicans in 2024
- Highly elastic — margins have ranged 26.1 points across recent elections, suggesting a volatile electorate
- Swung 7.5 points toward Republican between 2020 and 2024
Who Lives Here
| Group | Monticello, NY | National |
|---|---|---|
▶White (Non-Hispanic)(13) | 66.0% | 57.4% |
▶Hispanic / Latino(17) | 19.0% | 19.3% |
▶Black / African American(9) | 9.2% | 12.2% |
Multiracial / Other | 2.9% | 4.0% |
▶Asian(6) | 2.1% | 6.0% |
▶Native American / Alaska Native(1) | 0.6% | 0.9% |
▶Middle Eastern / North African(10) | 0.5% | 0.9% |
Religious Adherents
Catholic-Evangelical edge: +40.7pp (vs national 4.5pp). A strongly Catholic-leaning religious profile, which nationally correlates with Democratic-leaning urban and suburban communities.
| Tradition | % Pop | % Adherents | US Pop | US Adherents |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 16.7% | 50.5% | — | — | |
| 10.3% | 31.1% | — | — | |
| 4.0% | 12.0% | — | — | |
| 1.8% | 5.4% | — | — | |
LDS (Mormon) | 0.3% | 1.0% | — | — |
| 0.2% | 0.8% | — | — | |
Non-religiousPopulation | 66.9% | — | — | — |
Who lives in the Monticello, NY metro area? 79,721 residents across 1 counties.
Demographics
Scale, voting-age share, and this geography's footprint inside the national electorate.
Income, attainment, and ownership indicators that often shape coalition structure and turnout behavior.
Age structure, language use, and nativity signals that explain how this geography differs from state and nation.
Turnout in Monticello, NY
How competitive is Monticello, NY?
Do voters in Monticello, NY split their tickets?
| Offices | Margin A | Margin B | Split |
|---|---|---|---|
| President vs Senate | R+16.6 | R+4.1 | 12.5pp |