Nogales, AZ
Latest: 2024
Safe Democratic — shifted 16.9pp toward Republicans in 2024 — 49K residents — 1 counties
Race & ancestry
| Group | % |
|---|---|
▶White (Non-Hispanic)(12) | 15.3% |
▶Hispanic / Latino(9) | 82.5% |
▶Black / African American(3) | 0.2% |
▶Asian(3) | 0.3% |
▶Middle Eastern / North African(3) | 0.1% |
▶Native American / Alaska Native(3) | 0.6% |
▶Native Hawaiian / Pacific Islander(1) | 0.3% |
Multiracial / Other | 0.8% |
Religious adherence
| Tradition | % Pop | % Adherents |
|---|---|---|
| Catholic | 76.7% | 89.2% |
| Evangelical Protestant | 5.4% | 6.2% |
| Other | 3.1% | 3.6% |
| LDS (Mormon) | 1.5% | 1.8% |
| Mainline Protestant | 0.8% | 0.9% |
| Non-religious | 14.0% | — |
Presidential results
| Year | Result |
|---|---|
| 2024 | Harris+18.6 |
| 2020 | Biden+35.5 |
| 2016 | Clinton+47.4 |
| 2012 | Obama+37.7 |
| 2008 | Obama+31.2 |
| 2004 | Kerry+19.2 |
| 2000 | Gore+21.2 |
| 1996 | Clinton+36.5 |
| 1992 | Clinton+6.0 |
Nogales, AZ is a metro area that has a population of 48,926. In the 2024 presidential election, it voted Democratic with a margin of D+18.6. Akashic Edge tracks 29 presidential elections here, dating back to 1912.
| Year | Dem % | Rep % | Margin | Swing |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2024 | 58.8% | 40.2% | D+18.6 | R+16.9 |
| 2020 | 67.2% | 31.7% | D+35.5 | R+11.9 |
| 2016 | 71.1% | 23.7% | D+47.4 | D+9.7 |
| 2012 | 68.2% | 30.4% | D+37.7 | D+6.5 |
| 2008 | 65.1% | 33.9% | D+31.2 | D+12.0 |
| 2004 | 59.1% | 39.9% | D+19.2 | R+2.1 |
| 2000 | 58.8% | 37.6% | D+21.2 | R+15.3 |
| 1996 | 64.2% | 27.6% | D+36.5 | D+30.5 |
| 1992 | 43.5% | 37.4% | D+6.0 | D+6.8 |
| 1988 | 48.8% | 49.6% | R+0.8 | D+21.0 |
| 1984 | 38.6% | 60.3% | R+21.8 | R+10.8 |
| 1980 | 39.1% | 50.1% | R+11.0 | R+10.0 |
| 1976 | 47.8% | 48.8% | R+1.0 | D+5.7 |
| 1972 | 45.7% | 52.4% | R+6.6 | R+2.5 |
| 1968 | 44.1% | 48.2% | R+4.1 | R+17.2 |
| 1964 | 56.5% | 43.4% | D+13.1 | R+6.2 |
| 1960 | 59.6% | 40.4% | D+19.2 | D+37.8 |
| 1956 | 40.7% | 59.3% | R+18.5 | R+7.1 |
| 1952 | 44.3% | 55.7% | R+11.4 | R+25.9 |
| 1948 | 56.5% | 42.0% | D+14.5 | — |
What defines Nogales, AZ?
It has a majority-minority electorate where racial demographics are the primary driver of partisan lean.
Constituent Counties
Similar metro areas
Nearest neighbors matched on the same place-page feature set used across the dossier system.
Eagle Pass, TX
Diverse rural competitive
El Paso, TX
Diverse rural competitive
Brownsville-Harlingen, TX
Diverse rural competitive
Laredo, TX
Diverse rural competitive
Yuma, AZ
Diverse rural competitive
McAllen-Edinburg-Mission, TX
Diverse rural competitive
Rio Grande City-Roma, TX
Diverse rural competitive
El Centro, CA
Diverse rural competitive
Counties in Nogales, AZ
2024 presidential results across the counties that make up this geography.
Sort:
| County | Pop. | Margin | Dem | Rep | Total | Share |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Santa Cruz | 49K | D+18.6 | 11,265 | 7,699 | 19,167 | 100.0% |
1 countiesTotal votes: 19,167
Ask the Historian
Explore Nogales, AZ's political evolution with the Historian
Key Insights
High-confidence patterns distilled from this geography's election history.
- Has voted Democratic in the last 5 presidential elections
- Swung 16.9 points toward Republican between 2020 and 2024
- Highly elastic — margins have ranged 28.8 points across recent elections, suggesting a volatile electorate
Who Lives Here
A race-first Census view with ancestry expansion where source coverage is strong enough to support detail.
Census race profile
Major Census race and ethnicity groups shown as a share of total population.
| Group | Nogales, AZ | National |
|---|---|---|
▶Hispanic / Latino(9) | 82.5% | 19.3% |
▶White (Non-Hispanic)(12) | 15.3% | 57.4% |
Multiracial / Other | 0.8% | 4.0% |
▶Native American / Alaska Native(3) | 0.6% | 0.9% |
▶Native Hawaiian / Pacific Islander(1) | 0.3% | 0.2% |
▶Asian(3) | 0.3% | 6.0% |
▶Black / African American(3) | 0.2% | 12.2% |
▶Middle Eastern / North African(3) | 0.1% | 0.9% |
Method notes
Religious Adherents
Population that are religious adherents:
86.0%
Catholic-Evangelical edge: +78.5pp (vs national 4.5pp). A strongly Catholic-leaning religious profile, which nationally correlates with Democratic-leaning urban and suburban communities.
| Tradition | % Pop | % Adherents | US Pop | US Adherents |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 76.7% | 89.2% | — | — | |
| 5.4% | 6.2% | — | — | |
| 3.1% | 3.6% | — | — | |
LDS (Mormon) | 1.5% | 1.8% | — | — |
| 0.8% | 0.9% | — | — | |
Non-religiousPopulation | 14.0% | — | — | — |
Who lives in the Nogales, AZ metro area? 48,926 residents across 1 counties.
Demographics
Read this geography's profile in three layers: local, state (where available), and national baseline.
23% of adults hold a bachelor's degree — 10pp below the national average. Places with similar education levels vote R+9 on average nationally.
Population & electorate
Scale, voting-age share, and this geography's footprint inside the national electorate.
Total population
49K
Share of U.S. population
0.01%
Voting-age population
74.0%
Economic profile
Income, attainment, and ownership indicators that often shape coalition structure and turnout behavior.
Median household income
$55,217
Poverty rate
20.2%
College degree
23.1%
Homeownership
69.3%
Community profile
Age structure, language use, and nativity signals that explain how this geography differs from state and nation.
Median age
37.9 yrs
Age 18–29
15.1%
Age 65+
19.3%
Foreign born
34.2%
Non-English at home
77.7%
English only
22.3%
Turnout in Nogales, AZ
Estimated using 2020 Census voting-age population.
53.0%
-1.1pp
36,185
1988–2024
How competitive is Nogales, AZ?
Safe DAvg margin: D+33.8 (last 3 elections)
2008
D+31.2
2012
D+37.7
2016
D+47.4
2020
D+35.5
2024
D+18.6
28.8pp
0
D+34.1
Do voters in Nogales, AZ split their tickets?
Divergence between offices in the same election reveals persuadable voters.
Heavy splitting (0/100)
| Offices | Margin A | Margin B | Split |
|---|---|---|---|
| President vs Senate | D+18.6 | D+29.6 | 11.0pp |
Average divergence across office pairs: 26.1pp
Located In
Nogales, AZ sits inside these higher-level geographies.
Unlock Metro Area Analytics
Advance from the public dossier into precinct-level, insight-rich district intelligence.
Precinct data, Smart Insights, full history, and export controls tailored to place pages.
Precinct-Level Data
See results for every neighborhood and voting precinct
Smart Insights
Automated highlights from recent election patterns
Full Historical Access
165 years of election data at every level of geography
CSV Exports
Download any table or chart as a CSV file