Kiryas Joel-Poughkeepsie-Newburgh, NY
Latest: 2024
Competitive — shifted 6.4pp toward Republicans in 2024 — 705K residents — 2 counties
Race & ancestry
| Group | % |
|---|---|
▶White (Non-Hispanic)(13) | 61.4% |
▶Hispanic / Latino(20) | 20.3% |
▶Black / African American(15) | 10.8% |
▶Asian(6) | 3.2% |
▶Middle Eastern / North African(10) | 0.8% |
▶Native American / Alaska Native(3) | 0.9% |
Multiracial / Other | 3.4% |
Religious adherence
| Tradition | % Pop | % Adherents |
|---|---|---|
| Catholic | 28.2% | 62.0% |
| Other | 8.6% | 18.9% |
| Mainline Protestant | 4.0% | 8.8% |
| Evangelical Protestant | 3.8% | 8.4% |
| Black Protestant | 0.7% | 1.6% |
| LDS (Mormon) | 0.5% | 1.1% |
| Orthodox Christian | 0.2% | 0.4% |
| Non-religious | 54.5% | — |
Presidential results
| Year | Result |
|---|---|
| 2024 | Trump+2.0 |
| 2020 | Biden+4.4 |
| 2016 | Trump+2.8 |
| 2012 | Obama+6.5 |
| 2008 | Obama+6.2 |
| 2004 | Bush+7.8 |
| 2000 | Bush+2.1 |
| 1996 | Clinton+6.6 |
| 1992 | Bush+5.3 |
Kiryas Joel-Poughkeepsie-Newburgh, NY is a metro area that has a population of 704,836. In the 2024 presidential election, it voted Republican with a margin of R+2.0. Akashic Edge tracks 40 presidential elections here, dating back to 1868.
| Year | Dem % | Rep % | Margin | Swing |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2024 | 48.8% | 50.8% | R+2.0 | R+6.4 |
| 2020 | 51.4% | 47.0% | D+4.4 | D+7.2 |
| 2016 | 46.1% | 48.9% | R+2.8 | R+9.3 |
| 2012 | 52.4% | 45.9% | D+6.5 | D+0.3 |
| 2008 | 52.5% | 46.3% | D+6.2 | D+14.0 |
| 2004 | 45.3% | 53.0% | R+7.8 | R+5.7 |
| 2000 | 46.4% | 48.5% | R+2.1 | R+8.7 |
| 1996 | 46.9% | 40.2% | D+6.6 | D+11.9 |
| 1992 | 36.8% | 42.1% | R+5.3 | D+19.0 |
| 1988 | 37.4% | 61.7% | R+24.3 | D+11.8 |
| 1984 | 31.8% | 67.8% | R+36.0 | R+10.8 |
| 1980 | 32.0% | 57.2% | R+25.2 | R+12.4 |
| 1976 | 43.1% | 55.9% | R+12.8 | D+28.2 |
| 1972 | 29.4% | 70.4% | R+41.0 | R+20.5 |
| 1968 | 35.0% | 55.5% | R+20.4 | R+44.6 |
| 1964 | 62.0% | 37.9% | D+24.1 | D+45.6 |
| 1960 | 39.3% | 60.7% | R+21.4 | D+34.4 |
| 1956 | 22.1% | 77.9% | R+55.8 | R+11.8 |
| 1952 | 27.1% | 71.2% | R+44.1 | R+13.1 |
| 1948 | 32.6% | 63.6% | R+31.0 | — |
What defines Kiryas Joel-Poughkeepsie-Newburgh, NY?
Kiryas Joel-Poughkeepsie-Newburgh, NY has flipped between parties in each of the last three elections — a fiercely contested battleground. It has a racially mixed, moderately educated electorate — the suburban swing demographic that decides close elections.
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Counties in Kiryas Joel-Poughkeepsie-Newburgh, NY
2024 presidential results across the counties that make up this geography.
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Ask the Historian
Explore Kiryas Joel-Poughkeepsie-Newburgh, NY's political evolution with the Historian
Key Insights
High-confidence patterns distilled from this geography's election history.
- The 2024 election was decided by just 2.0 points — razor-thin
- Split-ticket voting in 2024: Different parties won President and Senate
- Won by both parties in recent history — Democrats most recently in 2020, Republicans in 2024
Who Lives Here
A race-first Census view with ancestry expansion where source coverage is strong enough to support detail.
Census race profile
Major Census race and ethnicity groups shown as a share of total population.
| Group | Local | National |
|---|---|---|
▶White (Non-Hispanic)(13) | 61.4% | 57.4% |
▶Hispanic / Latino(20) | 20.3% | 19.3% |
▶Black / African American(15) | 10.8% | 12.2% |
Multiracial / Other | 3.4% | 4.0% |
▶Asian(6) | 3.2% | 6.0% |
▶Native American / Alaska Native(3) | 0.9% | 0.9% |
▶Middle Eastern / North African(10) | 0.8% | 0.9% |
Method notes
Religious Adherents
Population that are religious adherents:
45.5%
Catholic-Evangelical edge: +49.2pp (vs national 4.5pp). A strongly Catholic-leaning religious profile, which nationally correlates with Democratic-leaning urban and suburban communities.
| Tradition | % Pop | % Adherents | US Pop | US Adherents |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 28.2% | 62.0% | — | — | |
| 8.6% | 18.9% | — | — | |
| 4.0% | 8.8% | — | — | |
| 3.8% | 8.4% | — | — | |
| 0.7% | 1.6% | — | — | |
LDS (Mormon) | 0.5% | 1.1% | — | — |
| 0.2% | 0.4% | — | — | |
Non-religiousPopulation | 54.5% | — | — | — |
Who lives in the Kiryas Joel-Poughkeepsie-Newburgh, NY metro area? 704,836 residents across 2 counties.
Demographics
Read this geography's profile in three layers: local, state (where available), and national baseline.
Population & electorate
Scale, voting-age share, and this geography's footprint inside the national electorate.
Total population
705K
Share of U.S. population
0.21%
Voting-age population
73.2%
Economic profile
Income, attainment, and ownership indicators that often shape coalition structure and turnout behavior.
Median household income
$98,227
Poverty rate
10.9%
College degree
36.4%
Homeownership
68.4%
Community profile
Age structure, language use, and nativity signals that explain how this geography differs from state and nation.
Median age
39.3 yrs
Age 18–29
16.1%
Age 65+
16.5%
Foreign born
12.8%
Non-English at home
24.2%
English only
75.8%
Turnout in Kiryas Joel-Poughkeepsie-Newburgh, NY
Estimated using 2020 Census voting-age population.
63.6%
+1.0pp
516,197
1988–2024
How competitive is Kiryas Joel-Poughkeepsie-Newburgh, NY?
TossupAvg margin: R+0.1 (last 3 elections)
2008
D+6.2
2012
D+6.5
2016
R+2.8
2020
D+4.4
2024
R+2.0
9.3pp
5
D+2.5
Do voters in Kiryas Joel-Poughkeepsie-Newburgh, NY split their tickets?
Divergence between offices in the same election reveals persuadable voters.
Heavy splitting (6/100)
| Offices | Margin A | Margin B | Split |
|---|---|---|---|
| President vs Senate | R+2.0 | D+8.8 | 10.8pp |
Average divergence across office pairs: 16.3pp
Located In
Kiryas Joel-Poughkeepsie-Newburgh, NY sits inside these higher-level geographies.
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