San Antonio-New Braunfels, TX
Latest: 2024
Leans Republican — shifted 8.6pp toward Republicans in 2024 — 2.7M residents — 8 counties
Race & ancestry
| Group | % |
|---|---|
▶White (Non-Hispanic)(13) | 32.4% |
▶Hispanic / Latino(20) | 54.7% |
▶Black / African American(15) | 7.0% |
▶Asian(6) | 2.9% |
▶Middle Eastern / North African(10) | 0.5% |
▶Native American / Alaska Native(4) | 1.1% |
▶Native Hawaiian / Pacific Islander(4) | 0.1% |
Multiracial / Other | 1.8% |
Religious adherence
| Tradition | % Pop | % Adherents |
|---|---|---|
| Catholic | 26.2% | 51.6% |
| Evangelical Protestant | 17.0% | 33.4% |
| Other | 3.8% | 7.4% |
| Mainline Protestant | 3.0% | 5.8% |
| LDS (Mormon) | 1.3% | 2.6% |
| Black Protestant | 0.8% | 1.6% |
| Orthodox Christian | 0.1% | 0.2% |
| Non-religious | 49.1% | — |
Presidential results
| Year | Result |
|---|---|
| 2024 | Trump+5.3 |
| 2020 | Biden+3.3 |
| 2016 | Trump+1.1 |
| 2012 | Romney+8.0 |
| 2008 | McCain+5.0 |
| 2004 | Bush+19.3 |
| 2000 | Bush+15.5 |
| 1996 | Dole+1.3 |
| 1992 | Bush+2.5 |
San Antonio-New Braunfels, TX is a metro area that has a population of 2,662,733. In the 2024 presidential election, it voted Republican with a margin of R+5.3. Akashic Edge tracks 39 presidential elections here, dating back to 1872.
| Year | Dem % | Rep % | Margin | Swing |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2024 | 46.8% | 52.1% | R+5.3 | R+8.6 |
| 2020 | 50.9% | 47.6% | D+3.3 | D+4.4 |
| 2016 | 46.7% | 47.8% | R+1.1 | D+6.9 |
| 2012 | 45.2% | 53.2% | R+8.0 | R+3.0 |
| 2008 | 47.0% | 51.9% | R+5.0 | D+14.3 |
| 2004 | 40.0% | 59.3% | R+19.3 | R+3.8 |
| 2000 | 40.8% | 56.3% | R+15.5 | R+14.2 |
| 1996 | 46.2% | 47.5% | R+1.3 | D+1.2 |
| 1992 | 39.3% | 41.8% | R+2.5 | D+6.7 |
| 1988 | 45.0% | 54.2% | R+9.2 | D+14.4 |
| 1984 | 38.1% | 61.7% | R+23.6 | R+12.8 |
| 1980 | 42.9% | 53.7% | R+10.7 | R+18.6 |
| 1976 | 53.3% | 45.4% | D+7.9 | D+31.5 |
| 1972 | 38.0% | 61.6% | R+23.7 | R+33.3 |
| 1968 | 49.9% | 40.3% | D+9.6 | R+24.0 |
| 1964 | 66.7% | 33.1% | D+33.6 | D+27.1 |
| 1960 | 53.0% | 46.5% | D+6.5 | D+25.5 |
| 1956 | 40.2% | 59.2% | R+19.0 | R+3.3 |
| 1952 | 42.0% | 57.7% | R+15.7 | R+28.8 |
| 1948 | 53.6% | 40.5% | D+13.1 | — |
What defines San Antonio-New Braunfels, TX?
San Antonio-New Braunfels, TX has flipped between parties in each of the last three elections — a fiercely contested battleground. It has a majority-minority electorate where racial demographics are the primary driver of partisan lean.
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Counties in San Antonio-New Braunfels, TX
2024 presidential results across the counties that make up this geography.
Sort:
| County | Pop. | Margin | Dem | Rep | Total | Share |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Bexar | 2.1M | D+9.7 | 411,389 | 337,545 | 758,323 | 71.5% |
| Comal | 184K | R+45.5 | 27,680 | 74,756 | 103,491 | 9.8% |
| Guadalupe | 184K | R+29.5 | 29,573 | 54,691 | 85,136 | 8.0% |
| Medina | 54K | R+42.7 | 6,950 | 17,464 | 24,617 | 2.3% |
| Wilson | 53K | R+53.7 | 6,247 | 20,894 | 27,275 | 2.6% |
| Atascosa | 51K | R+43.3 | 5,153 | 13,142 | 18,444 | 1.7% |
| Kendall | 49K | R+55.6 | 6,355 | 22,668 | 29,315 | 2.8% |
| Bandera | 22K | R+61.8 | 2,532 | 10,939 | 13,600 | 1.3% |
8 countiesTotal votes: 1,060,201
Ask the Historian
Explore San Antonio-New Braunfels, TX's political evolution with the Historian
Key Insights
High-confidence patterns distilled from this geography's election history.
- The 2016 election was decided by just 1.1 points — razor-thin
- Split-ticket voting in 2024: Different parties won President and Senate
- Won by both parties in recent history — Democrats most recently in 2020, Republicans in 2024
Who Lives Here
A race-first Census view with ancestry expansion where source coverage is strong enough to support detail.
Census race profile
Major Census race and ethnicity groups shown as a share of total population.
| Group | Local | National |
|---|---|---|
▶Hispanic / Latino(20) | 54.7% | 19.3% |
▶White (Non-Hispanic)(13) | 32.4% | 57.4% |
▶Black / African American(15) | 7.0% | 12.2% |
▶Asian(6) | 2.9% | 6.0% |
Multiracial / Other | 1.8% | 4.0% |
▶Native American / Alaska Native(4) | 1.1% | 0.9% |
▶Middle Eastern / North African(10) | 0.5% | 0.9% |
▶Native Hawaiian / Pacific Islander(4) | 0.1% | 0.2% |
Method notes
Religious Adherents
Population that are religious adherents:
50.8%
Catholic-Evangelical edge: +13.7pp (vs national 4.5pp). A strongly Catholic-leaning religious profile, which nationally correlates with Democratic-leaning urban and suburban communities.
| Tradition | % Pop | % Adherents | US Pop | US Adherents |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 26.2% | 51.6% | — | — | |
| 17.0% | 33.4% | — | — | |
| 3.8% | 7.4% | — | — | |
| 3.0% | 5.8% | — | — | |
LDS (Mormon) | 1.3% | 2.6% | — | — |
| 0.8% | 1.6% | — | — | |
| 0.1% | 0.2% | — | — | |
Non-religiousPopulation | 49.1% | — | — | — |
Who lives in the San Antonio-New Braunfels, TX metro area? 2,662,733 residents across 8 counties.
Demographics
Read this geography's profile in three layers: local, state (where available), and national baseline.
Population & electorate
Scale, voting-age share, and this geography's footprint inside the national electorate.
Total population
2.7M
Share of U.S. population
0.80%
Voting-age population
74.0%
Economic profile
Income, attainment, and ownership indicators that often shape coalition structure and turnout behavior.
Median household income
$77,186
Poverty rate
13.4%
College degree
32.3%
Homeownership
63.4%
Community profile
Age structure, language use, and nativity signals that explain how this geography differs from state and nation.
Median age
36.0 yrs
Age 18–29
16.8%
Age 65+
13.9%
Foreign born
12.3%
Non-English at home
33.4%
English only
66.6%
Turnout in San Antonio-New Braunfels, TX
Estimated using 2020 Census voting-age population.
53.8%
+1.0pp
1,971,000
1988–2024
How competitive is San Antonio-New Braunfels, TX?
TossupAvg margin: R+1.0 (last 3 elections)
2008
R+5.0
2012
R+8.0
2016
R+1.1
2020
D+3.3
2024
R+5.3
11.3pp
2
R+3.2
Do voters in San Antonio-New Braunfels, TX split their tickets?
Divergence between offices in the same election reveals persuadable voters.
Moderate splitting (66/100)
| Offices | Margin A | Margin B | Split |
|---|---|---|---|
| President vs Senate | R+5.3 | D+0.5 | 5.8pp |
Average divergence across office pairs: 7.4pp
Located In
San Antonio-New Braunfels, TX sits inside these higher-level geographies.
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