Tampa-St. Petersburg-Clearwater, FL
Latest: 2024
Leans Republican — shifted 7.9pp toward Republicans in 2024 — 3.3M residents — 4 counties
Race & ancestry
| Group | % |
|---|---|
▶White (Non-Hispanic)(13) | 58.4% |
▶Hispanic / Latino(20) | 21.8% |
▶Black / African American(16) | 11.7% |
▶Asian(6) | 3.9% |
▶Middle Eastern / North African(11) | 1.1% |
▶Native American / Alaska Native(2) | 0.3% |
▶Native Hawaiian / Pacific Islander(3) | 0.1% |
Multiracial / Other | 3.9% |
Religious adherence
| Tradition | % Pop | % Adherents |
|---|---|---|
| Catholic | 22.2% | 46.3% |
| Evangelical Protestant | 16.2% | 33.8% |
| Mainline Protestant | 3.6% | 7.5% |
| Other | 3.6% | 7.4% |
| Black Protestant | 1.7% | 3.4% |
| Orthodox Christian | 0.7% | 1.5% |
| LDS (Mormon) | 0.5% | 1.0% |
| Non-religious | 52.0% | — |
Presidential results
| Year | Result |
|---|---|
| 2024 | Trump+10.4 |
| 2020 | Trump+2.6 |
| 2016 | Trump+3.1 |
| 2012 | Obama+3.1 |
| 2008 | Obama+5.0 |
| 2004 | Bush+4.7 |
| 2000 | Gore+0.8 |
| 1996 | Clinton+7.4 |
| 1992 | Bush+0.8 |
Tampa-St. Petersburg-Clearwater, FL is a metro area that has a population of 3,304,691. In the 2024 presidential election, it voted Republican with a margin of R+10.4. Akashic Edge tracks 39 presidential elections here, dating back to 1872.
| Year | Dem % | Rep % | Margin | Swing |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2024 | 44.2% | 54.7% | R+10.4 | R+7.9 |
| 2020 | 48.2% | 50.7% | R+2.6 | D+0.5 |
| 2016 | 46.6% | 49.6% | R+3.1 | R+6.2 |
| 2012 | 50.9% | 47.7% | D+3.1 | R+1.8 |
| 2008 | 51.9% | 46.9% | D+5.0 | D+9.7 |
| 2004 | 47.2% | 51.9% | R+4.7 | R+5.5 |
| 2000 | 48.9% | 48.1% | D+0.8 | R+6.6 |
| 1996 | 48.4% | 41.0% | D+7.4 | D+8.2 |
| 1992 | 37.9% | 38.7% | R+0.8 | D+16.0 |
| 1988 | 41.3% | 58.1% | R+16.8 | D+12.2 |
| 1984 | 35.5% | 64.5% | R+29.0 | R+16.2 |
| 1980 | 40.8% | 53.6% | R+12.8 | R+15.6 |
| 1976 | 50.8% | 48.0% | D+2.8 | D+43.4 |
| 1972 | 29.6% | 70.2% | R+40.6 | R+27.9 |
| 1968 | 31.9% | 44.6% | R+12.7 | R+24.9 |
| 1964 | 56.1% | 43.9% | D+12.2 | D+23.2 |
| 1960 | 44.5% | 55.5% | R+11.0 | D+14.9 |
| 1956 | 37.0% | 62.9% | R+25.9 | R+2.1 |
| 1952 | 38.1% | 61.9% | R+23.8 | R+20.6 |
| 1948 | 40.9% | 44.1% | R+3.2 | — |
What defines Tampa-St. Petersburg-Clearwater, FL?
Tampa-St. Petersburg-Clearwater, FL has been won by both parties in the last 6 presidential elections (2D, 4R) — a genuine swing geography.
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Counties in Tampa-St. Petersburg-Clearwater, FL
2024 presidential results across the counties that make up this geography.
Sort:
| County | Pop. | Margin | Dem | Rep | Total | Share |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Hillsborough | 1.5M | R+3.1 | 321,455 | 342,017 | 671,993 | 41.5% |
| Pinellas | 963K | R+5.2 | 242,452 | 269,472 | 517,074 | 32.0% |
| Pasco | 611K | R+25.2 | 117,450 | 197,779 | 318,471 | 19.7% |
| Hernando | 207K | R+37.0 | 34,431 | 75,446 | 110,691 | 6.8% |
4 countiesTotal votes: 1,618,229
Ask the Historian
Explore Tampa-St. Petersburg-Clearwater, FL's political evolution with the Historian
Key Insights
High-confidence patterns distilled from this geography's election history.
- Won by both parties in recent history — Democrats most recently in 2012, Republicans in 2024
- Swung 7.9 points toward Republican between 2020 and 2024
- Closest recent contest: 2020 at just 2.6 points
Who Lives Here
A race-first Census view with ancestry expansion where source coverage is strong enough to support detail.
Census race profile
Major Census race and ethnicity groups shown as a share of total population.
| Group | Local | National |
|---|---|---|
▶White (Non-Hispanic)(13) | 58.4% | 57.4% |
▶Hispanic / Latino(20) | 21.8% | 19.3% |
▶Black / African American(16) | 11.7% | 12.2% |
▶Asian(6) | 3.9% | 6.0% |
Multiracial / Other | 3.9% | 4.0% |
▶Middle Eastern / North African(11) | 1.1% | 0.9% |
▶Native American / Alaska Native(2) | 0.3% | 0.9% |
▶Native Hawaiian / Pacific Islander(3) | 0.1% | 0.2% |
Method notes
Religious Adherents
Population that are religious adherents:
48.0%
Catholic-Evangelical edge: +8.0pp (vs national 4.5pp). A moderate religious balance between Catholic and Evangelical traditions.
| Tradition | % Pop | % Adherents | US Pop | US Adherents |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 22.2% | 46.3% | — | — | |
| 16.2% | 33.8% | — | — | |
| 3.6% | 7.5% | — | — | |
| 3.6% | 7.4% | — | — | |
| 1.7% | 3.4% | — | — | |
| 0.7% | 1.5% | — | — | |
LDS (Mormon) | 0.5% | 1.0% | — | — |
Non-religiousPopulation | 52.0% | — | — | — |
Who lives in the Tampa-St. Petersburg-Clearwater, FL metro area? 3,304,691 residents across 4 counties.
Demographics
Read this geography's profile in three layers: local, state (where available), and national baseline.
Population & electorate
Scale, voting-age share, and this geography's footprint inside the national electorate.
Total population
3.3M
Share of U.S. population
0.99%
Voting-age population
78.8%
Economic profile
Income, attainment, and ownership indicators that often shape coalition structure and turnout behavior.
Median household income
$74,877
Poverty rate
12.0%
College degree
35.0%
Homeownership
67.9%
Community profile
Age structure, language use, and nativity signals that explain how this geography differs from state and nation.
Median age
42.8 yrs
Age 18–29
14.1%
Age 65+
20.3%
Foreign born
15.5%
Non-English at home
23.1%
English only
76.9%
Turnout in Tampa-St. Petersburg-Clearwater, FL
Estimated using 2020 Census voting-age population.
62.1%
-2.5pp
2,604,424
1988–2024
How competitive is Tampa-St. Petersburg-Clearwater, FL?
Lean RAvg margin: R+5.4 (last 3 elections)
2008
D+5.0
2012
D+3.1
2016
R+3.1
2020
R+2.6
2024
R+10.4
15.4pp
3
R+1.6
Do voters in Tampa-St. Petersburg-Clearwater, FL split their tickets?
Divergence between offices in the same election reveals persuadable voters.
Heavy splitting (42/100)
| Offices | Margin A | Margin B | Split |
|---|---|---|---|
| President vs Senate | R+10.4 | R+8.7 | 1.7pp |
Average divergence across office pairs: 11.3pp
Located In
Tampa-St. Petersburg-Clearwater, FL sits inside these higher-level geographies.
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