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New York-Newark-Jersey City, NY-NJ

New York-Newark-Jersey City, NY-NJ

Latest: 2024↓ R+13.2 vs 2020

Leans Democratic — shifted 13.2pp toward Republicans in 2024 — 19.8M residents — 22 counties

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Race & ancestry
Group%
▶White (Non-Hispanic)(13)
42.8%
▶Hispanic / Latino(20)
25.7%
▶Black / African American(15)
15.8%
▶Asian(6)
12.0%
▶Middle Eastern / North African(11)
1.6%
▶Native American / Alaska Native(1)
0.6%
Multiracial / Other
3.0%
View full demographics →
Religious adherence
Tradition% Pop% Adherents
Catholic33.0%60.7%
Other11.6%21.3%
Evangelical Protestant4.5%8.2%
Mainline Protestant3.0%5.5%
Black Protestant1.6%2.9%
Orthodox Christian0.8%1.5%
LDS (Mormon)0.3%0.6%
Non-religious45.6%—
View full religion →
Presidential results
YearResult
2024Harris+14.7
2020Biden+27.9
2016Clinton+29.3
2012Obama+31.7
2008Obama+29.3
2004Kerry+21.5
2000Gore+30.9
1996Clinton+31.8
1992Clinton+16.2
View full election history →

New York-Newark-Jersey City, NY-NJ is a metro area that has a population of 19,798,537. In the 2024 presidential election, it voted Democratic with a margin of D+14.7. Akashic Edge tracks 40 presidential elections here, dating back to 1868.

New York-Newark-Jersey City, NY-NJ Presidential Election Results, 1948–2024
YearDem %Rep %MarginSwing
202456.6%41.9%D+14.7R+13.2
202063.4%35.4%D+27.9R+1.3
201662.9%33.6%D+29.3R+2.4
201265.3%33.6%D+31.7D+2.4
200864.2%34.9%D+29.3D+7.7
200460.2%38.7%D+21.5R+9.4
200063.6%32.6%D+30.9R+0.8
199661.8%30.1%D+31.8D+15.6
199251.8%35.6%D+16.2D+14.7
198850.2%48.7%D+1.5D+9.0
198446.0%53.5%R+7.5R+1.4
198042.6%48.6%R+6.0R+14.1
197653.4%45.4%D+8.1D+23.8
197241.8%57.5%R+15.7R+18.1
196845.5%43.1%D+2.4R+33.0
196467.6%32.1%D+35.4D+26.1
196054.4%45.1%D+9.3D+27.2
195640.9%58.7%R+17.9R+6.1
195240.5%52.2%R+11.7R+10.6
194842.4%43.6%R+1.2—
Political Identity

What defines New York-Newark-Jersey City, NY-NJ?

New York-Newark-Jersey City, NY-NJ has been trending Republican — 17pp redder over the last 4 presidential cycles. It has a heavily immigrant community where nativity and ethnic networks shape the political landscape.

Constituent Counties

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Similarity Explorer

Similar metro areas

Nearest neighbors matched on the same place-page feature set used across the dossier system.
8 visible matches
Constituent Geography

Counties in New York-Newark-Jersey City, NY-NJ

2024 presidential results across the counties that make up this geography.
Sort:
CountyPop.MarginDemRepTotalShare
Kings2.6M
D+43.3
601,265233,964847,93410.5%
Queens2.3M
D+24.2
437,282264,628712,1918.8%
New York1.6M
D+64.2
533,782113,921654,3728.1%
Suffolk1.5M
R+9.9
341,812417,549762,8499.5%
Bronx1.4M
D+45.0
261,67098,174362,8904.5%
Nassau1.4M
R+4.2
338,424368,117712,2998.8%
Westchester1000K
D+26.1
287,434167,795457,8385.7%
Bergen962K
D+3.4
232,660217,096459,0775.7%
Middlesex871K
D+8.0
191,802162,459365,1874.5%
Essex863K
D+44.9
224,59683,908313,2833.9%
Hudson718K
D+28.1
144,76579,913231,1812.9%
Ocean654K
R+36.0
105,789227,232337,1354.2%
Monmouth645K
R+11.4
156,382197,409360,1434.5%
Union579K
D+24.2
147,32789,063240,6323.0%
Passaic521K
R+2.9
95,156100,954202,7672.5%
Morris515K
R+2.7
135,672143,439284,6663.5%
Richmond495K
R+29.5
69,345128,151199,6202.5%
Somerset350K
D+13.9
98,79074,101177,4122.2%
Rockland342K
R+11.8
65,88083,543150,0721.9%
Sussex146K
R+24.9
31,01952,12384,6291.1%
Hunterdon130K
R+6.7
36,99542,39180,9251.0%
Putnam98K
R+13.6
23,95631,55355,7650.7%
22 countiesTotal votes: 8,052,867
Historian Query

Ask the Historian

Explore New York-Newark-Jersey City, NY-NJ's political evolution with the Historian
Automated Readout

Key Insights

High-confidence patterns distilled from this geography's election history.
  • Has voted Democratic in the last 5 presidential elections
  • Swung 13.2 points toward Republican between 2020 and 2024
  • Shifted 17.0 points toward Republicans over the last 4 elections
Race & Ancestry

Who Lives Here

A race-first Census view with ancestry expansion where source coverage is strong enough to support detail.
New York-Newark-Jersey City, NY-NJCensus ACS 2024Ancestry detail available
Census race profile
Major Census race and ethnicity groups shown as a share of total population.
Expand rows for ancestry detail
White (Non-Hispanic) 42.8%Hispanic 25.7%Black 15.8%Asian 12.0%Multiracial 3.0%Native American 0.6%
GroupLocalNational
▶White (Non-Hispanic)(13)
42.8%57.4%
▶Hispanic / Latino(20)
25.7%19.3%
▶Black / African American(15)
15.8%12.2%
▶Asian(6)
12.0%6.0%
Multiracial / Other
3.0%4.0%
▶Middle Eastern / North African(11)
1.6%0.9%
▶Native American / Alaska Native(1)
0.6%0.9%
Method notes

Census treats race and Hispanic/Latino origin as separate questions. Race categories other than Hispanic reflect total populations (small Hispanic overlap in Black, Asian, AIAN, NHPI). “Multiracial / Other” is derived as a non-overlapping remainder.

Click rows to expand ancestry detail. Ancestry from ACS B04006, B03001, B02020, B02016. Totals may differ from race — individuals can report multiple ancestries.

Black / African American (estimated remainder) is derived as Black population share minus reported Sub-Saharan African and West Indian ancestry. It is shown as an estimated ancestry detail, not a standalone Census ancestry category.

MENA estimated from ancestry reporting — Census does not have a separate MENA race category. Not shown in bar (overlaps with other race groups).

Religious Adherents

Population that are religious adherents:
54.4%(10.8M people)
U.S. Religion Census 2020
Browse all religions

Catholic-Evangelical edge: +48.0pp (vs national 4.5pp). A strongly Catholic-leaning religious profile, which nationally correlates with Democratic-leaning urban and suburban communities.

Tradition% Pop% AdherentsUS PopUS Adherents
Catholic
33.0%60.7%——
Other
11.6%21.3%——
Evangelical Protestant
4.5%8.2%——
Mainline Protestant
3.0%5.5%——
Black Protestant
1.6%2.9%——
Orthodox Christian
0.8%1.5%——
LDS (Mormon)
0.3%0.6%——
Non-religiousPopulation
45.6%———
Click the chevron to expand denominations. Tradition and denomination rows label both share of total population and share of all religious adherents. Non-religious is shown as a share of total population only.

Who lives in the New York-Newark-Jersey City, NY-NJ metro area? 19,798,537 residents across 22 counties.

Demographic Comparison

Demographics

Read this geography's profile in three layers: local, state (where available), and national baseline.
New York-Newark-Jersey City, NY-NJ vs National19.8M residents

44% of adults hold a bachelor's degree — 11pp above the national average. Places with similar education levels vote D+16 on average nationally.

Population & electorate

Scale, voting-age share, and this geography's footprint inside the national electorate.

Total population
Local vs state vs U.S.
19.8M
local
19.8MNational 334.9M
Share of U.S. population
Local vs state vs U.S.
5.91%
local
5.91%National 100%
Voting-age population
Local vs state vs U.S.
76.8%
local
76.8%National 75.7%
Economic profile

Income, attainment, and ownership indicators that often shape coalition structure and turnout behavior.

Median household income
Local vs state vs U.S.
$101,518
local
$101,518National $83,960
Poverty rate
Local vs state vs U.S.
12.7%
local
12.7%National 12.5%
College degree
Local vs state vs U.S.
43.9%
local
43.9%National 35.6%
Homeownership
Local vs state vs U.S.
51.5%
local
51.5%National 65.2%
Community profile

Age structure, language use, and nativity signals that explain how this geography differs from state and nation.

Median age
Local vs state vs U.S.
39.6 yrs
local
39.6 yrsNational 39.1 yrs
Age 18–29
Local vs state vs U.S.
15.3%
local
15.3%National 15.7%
Age 65+
Local vs state vs U.S.
17.0%
local
17.0%National 17.0%
Foreign born
Local vs state vs U.S.
30.1%
local
30.1%National 14.1%
Non-English at home
Local vs state vs U.S.
40.2%
local
40.2%National 22.2%
English only
Local vs state vs U.S.
59.8%
local
59.8%National 77.8%
Voter Turnout

Turnout in New York-Newark-Jersey City, NY-NJ

Estimated using 2020 Census voting-age population.
2024 Turnout
52.9%
vs Previous
-3.2pp
Voting-Age Pop
15,211,231
History
1988–2024
Competitiveness

How competitive is New York-Newark-Jersey City, NY-NJ?

Safe DAvg margin: D+24.0 (last 3 elections)
2008
D+29.3
2012
D+31.7
2016
D+29.3
2020
D+27.9
2024
D+14.7
Elasticity
17.0pp
margin range
Party Flips
0
last 30 years
5-Elec Avg
D+26.6
Ticket-Splitting

Do voters in New York-Newark-Jersey City, NY-NJ split their tickets?

Divergence between offices in the same election reveals persuadable voters.
ConsistencyHeavy splitting (1/100)
2024 Office Comparisons
OfficesMargin AMargin BSplit
President vs SenateD+14.7D+19.64.9pp
Average divergence across office pairs: 17.0pp
Containing Geography

Located In

New York-Newark-Jersey City, NY-NJ sits inside these higher-level geographies.
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