Victoria, TX
Latest: 2024
Safe Republican — shifted 4.5pp toward Republicans in 2024 — 99K residents — 2 counties
Race & ancestry
| Group | % |
|---|---|
▶White (Non-Hispanic)(13) | 43.7% |
▶Hispanic / Latino(14) | 47.0% |
▶Black / African American(7) | 5.9% |
▶Asian(6) | 1.2% |
▶Middle Eastern / North African(4) | 0.1% |
▶Native American / Alaska Native(3) | 0.3% |
▶Native Hawaiian / Pacific Islander(1) | 0.1% |
Multiracial / Other | 1.9% |
Religious adherence
| Tradition | % Pop | % Adherents |
|---|---|---|
| Catholic | 25.4% | 46.3% |
| Evangelical Protestant | 22.4% | 40.8% |
| Mainline Protestant | 4.1% | 7.4% |
| Other | 1.7% | 3.0% |
| Black Protestant | 1.3% | 2.3% |
| LDS (Mormon) | 0.5% | 0.8% |
| Non-religious | 45.1% | — |
Presidential results
| Year | Result |
|---|---|
| 2024 | Trump+44.3 |
| 2020 | Trump+39.8 |
| 2016 | Trump+40.1 |
| 2012 | Romney+37.3 |
| 2008 | McCain+32.7 |
| 2004 | Bush+40.4 |
| 2000 | Bush+37.3 |
| 1996 | Dole+24.0 |
| 1992 | Bush+19.6 |
Victoria, TX is a metro area that has a population of 98,554. In the 2024 presidential election, it voted Republican with a margin of R+44.3. Akashic Edge tracks 39 presidential elections here, dating back to 1872.
| Year | Dem % | Rep % | Margin | Swing |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2024 | 27.4% | 71.7% | R+44.3 | R+4.5 |
| 2020 | 29.5% | 69.3% | R+39.8 | D+0.3 |
| 2016 | 28.1% | 68.2% | R+40.1 | R+2.8 |
| 2012 | 30.7% | 68.0% | R+37.3 | R+4.6 |
| 2008 | 33.1% | 65.9% | R+32.7 | D+7.7 |
| 2004 | 29.5% | 69.9% | R+40.4 | R+3.1 |
| 2000 | 30.5% | 67.8% | R+37.3 | R+13.3 |
| 1996 | 35.0% | 59.0% | R+24.0 | R+4.4 |
| 1992 | 30.0% | 49.6% | R+19.6 | D+3.4 |
| 1988 | 38.0% | 60.9% | R+22.9 | D+21.0 |
| 1984 | 27.8% | 71.8% | R+44.0 | R+18.1 |
| 1980 | 35.9% | 61.8% | R+25.9 | R+14.0 |
| 1976 | 43.7% | 55.7% | R+11.9 | D+32.7 |
| 1972 | 27.6% | 72.2% | R+44.6 | R+42.6 |
| 1968 | 41.3% | 43.4% | R+2.0 | R+33.5 |
| 1964 | 65.7% | 34.2% | D+31.5 | D+21.7 |
| 1960 | 54.8% | 45.0% | D+9.8 | D+38.1 |
| 1956 | 35.6% | 64.0% | R+28.4 | R+8.4 |
| 1952 | 40.0% | 60.0% | R+20.0 | R+43.2 |
| 1948 | 56.9% | 33.7% | D+23.2 | — |
What defines Victoria, TX?
It has a plurality-minority electorate (56% nonwhite) where demographic change is reshaping the political map.
Constituent Counties
Similar metro areas
Nearest neighbors matched on the same place-page feature set used across the dossier system.
Counties in Victoria, TX
2024 presidential results across the counties that make up this geography.
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Ask the Historian
Explore Victoria, TX's political evolution with the Historian
Key Insights
High-confidence patterns distilled from this geography's election history.
- Has voted Republican in the last 5 presidential elections
- Latest election (2024) was a Republican landslide with a 44.3% margin
- College attainment is 20% — 13pp below the national average. Similar education levels correlate with Republican lean nationally
Who Lives Here
A race-first Census view with ancestry expansion where source coverage is strong enough to support detail.
Census race profile
Major Census race and ethnicity groups shown as a share of total population.
| Group | Victoria, TX | National |
|---|---|---|
▶Hispanic / Latino(14) | 47.0% | 19.3% |
▶White (Non-Hispanic)(13) | 43.7% | 57.4% |
▶Black / African American(7) | 5.9% | 12.2% |
Multiracial / Other | 1.9% | 4.0% |
▶Asian(6) | 1.2% | 6.0% |
▶Native American / Alaska Native(3) | 0.3% | 0.9% |
▶Middle Eastern / North African(4) | 0.1% | 0.9% |
▶Native Hawaiian / Pacific Islander(1) | 0.1% | 0.2% |
Method notes
Religious Adherents
Population that are religious adherents:
54.9%
| Tradition | % Pop | % Adherents | US Pop | US Adherents |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 25.4% | 46.3% | — | — | |
| 22.4% | 40.8% | — | — | |
| 4.1% | 7.4% | — | — | |
| 1.7% | 3.0% | — | — | |
| 1.3% | 2.3% | — | — | |
LDS (Mormon) | 0.5% | 0.8% | — | — |
Non-religiousPopulation | 45.1% | — | — | — |
Who lives in the Victoria, TX metro area? 98,554 residents across 2 counties.
Demographics
Read this geography's profile in three layers: local, state (where available), and national baseline.
20% of adults hold a bachelor's degree — 13pp below the national average. Places with similar education levels vote R+15 on average nationally.
Population & electorate
Scale, voting-age share, and this geography's footprint inside the national electorate.
Total population
99K
Share of U.S. population
0.03%
Voting-age population
73.9%
Economic profile
Income, attainment, and ownership indicators that often shape coalition structure and turnout behavior.
Median household income
$70,035
Poverty rate
16.0%
College degree
20.0%
Homeownership
66.9%
Community profile
Age structure, language use, and nativity signals that explain how this geography differs from state and nation.
Median age
37.3 yrs
Age 18–29
15.4%
Age 65+
17.6%
Foreign born
6.9%
Non-English at home
23.1%
English only
76.9%
Turnout in Victoria, TX
Estimated using 2020 Census voting-age population.
54.0%
+1.6pp
72,806
1988–2024
How competitive is Victoria, TX?
Safe RAvg margin: R+41.4 (last 3 elections)
2008
R+32.7
2012
R+37.3
2016
R+40.1
2020
R+39.8
2024
R+44.3
11.6pp
0
R+38.8
Do voters in Victoria, TX split their tickets?
Divergence between offices in the same election reveals persuadable voters.
Moderate splitting (77/100)
| Offices | Margin A | Margin B | Split |
|---|---|---|---|
| President vs Senate | R+44.3 | R+41.2 | 3.1pp |
Average divergence across office pairs: 5.6pp
Located In
Victoria, TX sits inside these higher-level geographies.
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