How did AR-03, Arkansas vote in the 2024 presidential election?

AR-03, Arkansas voted Republican in 2024 with a margin of R+24.8. The Democratic candidate received 111,774 votes and the Republican candidate received 188,332 out of 308,507 total votes cast, a 1.4-point shift toward Republicans from 2020.

What is AR-03, Arkansas's political history?

AR-03, Arkansas has 5 presidential elections on record, spanning 2008 to 2024. It has voted Republican in every presidential election since 2008. The largest single-election swing was 5.2 points in 2020.

What are the demographics of AR-03, Arkansas?

AR-03, Arkansas has a population of 753,203 according to the 2020 Census. The racial composition is 67.7% non-Hispanic white, 16.5% Hispanic, 3.0% Black.

Which places are most similar to AR-03, Arkansas?

Based on demographic and electoral similarity analysis, the three most similar congressional districts to AR-03, Arkansas are KS-04, KS-01, WY-AL. Similarity is computed using a vector embedding of demographic, economic, and electoral characteristics.

Arkansas's 3rd Congressional District

Arkansas

Safe Republican — presidential lean R+24.8 in 2024

Ask Historian Open in Explore CompareShare image

POPULATION
753K
PRES MARGIN
R+24.8
2024
LEAN
Safe R

Place Story

What defines Arkansas's 3rd Congressional District

Methodology

Reliably Republican since 2008
- Safe R
- 5 straight R wins
Mobilization target, not persuasion target.
Biggest swing: D+5.2 in 2020
- 2016 → 2020

District in State Context

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Precinct Deep Dive

2024 / 2020 precinct vintages

See how each split precinct fragment inside AR-03 voted, swung, and lines up demographically.

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Peer discovery

Similar districts

Districts with comparable demographics and electoral dynamics.

TBD_9

KS-04

Kansas

Similarity99%

+7 more

KS-01 and others

Similarity0%

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Historian Query

Ask the Historian

Explore this district's political evolution with the Historian

“How has Arkansas's 3rd Congressional District voted in House elections since 2000?”

Race & Ancestry

Who Lives Here

A race-first Census view with ancestry expansion where source coverage is strong enough to support detail.

AR-03Census ACS 2024Ancestry detail available

Census race profile

Major Census race and ethnicity groups shown as a share of total population.

Expand rows for ancestry detail

White (Non-Hispanic) 67.7%Hispanic 16.5%Multiracial 5.9%Asian 3.6%Black 3.0%Native American 1.8%Native Hawaiian 1.6%

Group	AR-03	State	National
▶White (Non-Hispanic)(13)	67.7%	67.4%	57.4%
▶Hispanic / Latino(19)	16.5%	9.0%	19.3%
Multiracial / Other	5.9%	6.3%	4.0%
▶Asian(6)	3.6%	1.6%	6.0%
▶Black / African American(12)	3.0%	14.7%	12.2%
▶Native American / Alaska Native(6)	1.8%	0.6%	0.9%
▶Native Hawaiian / Pacific Islander(5)	1.6%	0.4%	0.2%
▶Middle Eastern / North African(10)	0.5%	—	0.9%

Method notes

Census treats race and Hispanic/Latino origin as separate questions. Race categories other than Hispanic reflect total populations (small Hispanic overlap in Black, Asian, AIAN, NHPI). “Multiracial / Other” is derived as a non-overlapping remainder.

Click rows to expand ancestry detail. Ancestry from ACS B04006, B03001, B02020, B02016. Totals may differ from race — individuals can report multiple ancestries.

Black / African American (estimated remainder) is derived as Black population share minus reported Sub-Saharan African and West Indian ancestry. It is shown as an estimated ancestry detail, not a standalone Census ancestry category.

MENA estimated from ancestry reporting — Census does not have a separate MENA race category. Not shown in bar (overlaps with other race groups).

Demographic Comparison

Demographics

Read this geography's profile in three layers: local, state (where available), and national baseline.

AR-03 vs Arkansas vs National753K residents

Population & electorate

Scale, voting-age share, and this geography's footprint inside the national electorate.

Total population

Local vs state vs U.S.

753K

local

753KState 3.0MNational 334.9M

Share of U.S. population

Local vs state vs U.S.

0.22%

local

0.22%National 100%

Voting-age population

Local vs state vs U.S.

75.2%

local

75.2%State 74.2%National 75.7%

Economic profile

Income, attainment, and ownership indicators that often shape coalition structure and turnout behavior.

Median household income

Local vs state vs U.S.

N/A

local

N/AState $61,888National $83,960

Poverty rate

Local vs state vs U.S.

N/A

local

N/AState 16.0%National 12.5%

College degree

Local vs state vs U.S.

N/A

local

N/AState 25.9%National 35.6%

Homeownership

Local vs state vs U.S.

N/A

local

N/AState 66.4%National 65.2%

Community profile

Age structure, language use, and nativity signals that explain how this geography differs from state and nation.

Median age

Local vs state vs U.S.

N/A

local

N/AState 38.8 yrsNational 39.1 yrs

Age 18–29

Local vs state vs U.S.

N/A

local

N/AState 15.7%National 15.7%

Age 65+

Local vs state vs U.S.

N/A

local

N/AState 17.6%National 17.0%

Foreign born

Local vs state vs U.S.

N/A

local

N/AState 5.4%National 14.1%

Non-English at home

Local vs state vs U.S.

N/A

local

N/AState 8.3%National 22.2%

English only

Local vs state vs U.S.

N/A

local

N/AState 91.7%National 77.8%

Voter Turnout

Turnout in AR-03

Estimated using 2020 Census voting-age population.

2024 Turnout

54.5%

vs Previous

+1.5pp

Voting-Age Pop

566,351

History

2008–2024

Competitiveness

How competitive is AR-03?

Safe RAvg margin: R+25.6 (last 3 elections)

2008

R+28.3

2012

R+33.1

2016

R+28.6

2020

R+23.4

2024

R+24.8

Elasticity

9.7pp

margin range

Party Flips

last 30 years

5-Elec Avg

R+27.6

Arkansas Comparison Set

Other Arkansas Districts

Compare the rest of the delegation at a glance, with each card anchored to the latest House margin on current district pages.

6 sibling districts

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