How did AR-03, Arkansas vote in the 2024 presidential election?

AR-03, Arkansas voted Republican in 2024 with a margin of R+28.1. The Democratic candidate received 118,950 votes and the Republican candidate received 215,705 out of 343,775 total votes cast, a 1.5-point shift toward Republicans from 2020.

What is AR-03, Arkansas's political history?

AR-03, Arkansas has 5 presidential elections on record, spanning 2008 to 2024. It has voted Republican in every presidential election since 2008. The largest single-election swing was 5.3 points in 2012.

What are the demographics of AR-03, Arkansas?

AR-03, Arkansas has a population of 786,435 according to the 2020 Census. The racial composition is 62.0% non-Hispanic white, 17.2% Hispanic, 2.6% Black. About 32% of residents hold a bachelor's degree or higher. Median household income is $74,552.

Arkansas's 3rd Congressional District

Arkansas · Latest: 2024↓ R+1.2 vs 2022

Safe Republican — 0D, 25R in 25 House elections

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POPULATION
786K
HOUSE MARGIN
R+32.0
2024
PRES MARGIN
R+28.1
2024
LEAN
Safe R
COLLEGE+
32%

Place Story

What defines Arkansas's 3rd Congressional District

Methodology

Reliably Republican since 2008
- Safe R
- 5 straight R wins
Mobilization target, not persuasion target.
Ticket-splitting: President ran 48.7pp ahead of House
- Divergence 48.8pp in 2008
Persuadable voters present — downballot races can run independent of presidential.
Biggest swing: R+5.3 in 2012
- 2008 → 2012

District in State Context

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Precinct Deep Dive

2024 / 2020 precinct vintages

See how each split precinct fragment inside AR-03 voted, swung, and lines up demographically.

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Historian Query

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Explore this district's political evolution with the Historian

“How has Arkansas's 3rd Congressional District voted in House elections since 2000?”

Race & Ancestry

Who Lives Here

A race-first Census view with ancestry expansion where source coverage is strong enough to support detail.

AR-03Census ACS 2024Ancestry detail available

Census race profile

Major Census race and ethnicity groups shown as a share of total population.

Expand rows for ancestry detail

White (Non-Hispanic) 62.0%Hispanic 17.2%Multiracial 13.7%Asian 3.4%Black 2.6%Native American 1.1%

Group	AR-03	State	National
▶White (Non-Hispanic)(13)	62.0%	67.4%	57.4%
▶Hispanic / Latino(19)	17.2%	9.0%	19.3%
Multiracial / Other	13.7%	6.3%	4.0%
▶Asian(6)	3.4%	1.6%	6.0%
▶Black / African American(12)	2.6%	14.7%	12.2%
▶Native American / Alaska Native(6)	1.1%	0.6%	0.9%
▶Middle Eastern / North African(10)	0.5%	—	0.9%

Method notes

Census treats race and Hispanic/Latino origin as separate questions. Race categories other than Hispanic reflect total populations (small Hispanic overlap in Black, Asian, AIAN, NHPI). “Multiracial / Other” is derived as a non-overlapping remainder.

Click rows to expand ancestry detail. Ancestry from ACS B04006, B03001, B02020, B02016. Totals may differ from race — individuals can report multiple ancestries.

Black / African American (estimated remainder) is derived as Black population share minus reported Sub-Saharan African and West Indian ancestry. It is shown as an estimated ancestry detail, not a standalone Census ancestry category.

MENA estimated from ancestry reporting — Census does not have a separate MENA race category. Not shown in bar (overlaps with other race groups).

Demographic Comparison

Demographics

Read this geography's profile in three layers: local, state (where available), and national baseline.

AR-03 vs Arkansas vs National786K residents

Population & electorate

Scale, voting-age share, and this geography's footprint inside the national electorate.

Total population

Local vs state vs U.S.

786K

local

786KState 3.0MNational 334.9M

Share of U.S. population

Local vs state vs U.S.

0.23%

local

0.23%National 100%

Voting-age population

Local vs state vs U.S.

73.9%

local

73.9%State 74.2%National 75.7%

Economic profile

Income, attainment, and ownership indicators that often shape coalition structure and turnout behavior.

Median household income

Local vs state vs U.S.

$74,552

local

$74,552State $61,888National $83,960

Poverty rate

Local vs state vs U.S.

12.2%

local

12.2%State 16.0%National 12.5%

College degree

Local vs state vs U.S.

32.1%

local

32.1%State 25.9%National 35.6%

Homeownership

Local vs state vs U.S.

63.5%

local

63.5%State 66.4%National 65.2%

Community profile

Age structure, language use, and nativity signals that explain how this geography differs from state and nation.

Median age

Local vs state vs U.S.

35.7 yrs

local

35.7 yrsState 38.8 yrsNational 39.1 yrs

Age 18–29

Local vs state vs U.S.

17.5%

local

17.5%State 15.7%National 15.7%

Age 65+

Local vs state vs U.S.

14.6%

local

14.6%State 17.6%National 17.0%

Foreign born

Local vs state vs U.S.

11.1%

local

11.1%State 5.4%National 14.1%

Non-English at home

Local vs state vs U.S.

15.5%

local

15.5%State 8.3%National 22.2%

English only

Local vs state vs U.S.

84.5%

local

84.5%State 91.7%National 77.8%

Voter Turnout

Turnout in AR-03

Estimated using 2020 Census voting-age population.

2024 Turnout

59.1%

vs Previous

+1.3pp

Voting-Age Pop

581,288

History

2008–2024

Competitiveness

How competitive is AR-03?

Safe RAvg margin: R+28.7 (last 3 elections)

2008

R+29.8

2012

R+35.1

2016

R+31.4

2020

R+26.7

2024

R+28.1

Elasticity

8.4pp

margin range

Party Flips

last 30 years

5-Elec Avg

R+30.2

Ticket-Splitting

Do voters in AR-03 split their tickets?

Divergence between offices in the same election reveals persuadable voters.

ConsistencyHeavy splitting (0/100)

2024 Office Comparisons

Offices	Margin A	Margin B	Split
President vs House	R+28.1	R+32.0	3.9pp

Average divergence across office pairs: 29.0pp

Arkansas Comparison Set

Other Arkansas Districts

Compare the rest of the delegation at a glance, with each card anchored to the latest House margin on current district pages.

6 sibling districts

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