Erie
Latest: 2024
Leans Republican — 390K residents — 3 counties
Race & ancestry
| Group | % |
|---|---|
▶White (Non-Hispanic)(13) | 85.3% |
▶Hispanic / Latino(16) | 3.8% |
▶Black / African American(13) | 5.3% |
▶Asian(6) | 1.7% |
▶Middle Eastern / North African(10) | 0.6% |
▶Native American / Alaska Native(2) | 0.1% |
Multiracial / Other | 3.8% |
Religious adherence
| Tradition | % Pop | % Adherents |
|---|---|---|
| Catholic | 15.3% | 39.0% |
| Evangelical Protestant | 10.6% | 26.9% |
| Mainline Protestant | 10.6% | 26.9% |
| Other | 1.7% | 4.4% |
| Black Protestant | 1.0% | 2.5% |
| LDS (Mormon) | 0.3% | 0.7% |
| Non-religious | 60.7% | — |
Presidential results
| Year | Result |
|---|---|
| 2024 | Trump+13.1 |
| 2020 | Trump+11.2 |
| 2016 | Trump+12.8 |
| 2012 | Obama+5.2 |
| 2008 | Obama+11.0 |
| 2004 | Kerry+0.9 |
| 2000 | Gore+1.8 |
| 1996 | Clinton+10.3 |
| 1992 | Clinton+9.5 |
Erie is a media market that has a population of 389,688. In the 2024 presidential election, it voted Republican with a margin of R+13.1. Akashic Edge tracks 40 presidential elections here, dating back to 1868.
| Year | Dem % | Rep % | Margin | Swing |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2024 | 43.0% | 56.1% | R+13.1 | R+1.9 |
| 2020 | 43.7% | 54.9% | R+11.2 | D+1.6 |
| 2016 | 40.9% | 53.7% | R+12.8 | R+18.1 |
| 2012 | 51.7% | 46.5% | D+5.2 | R+5.7 |
| 2008 | 54.6% | 43.6% | D+11.0 | D+10.1 |
| 2004 | 50.1% | 49.2% | D+0.9 | R+0.9 |
| 2000 | 49.1% | 47.3% | D+1.8 | R+8.4 |
| 1996 | 49.4% | 39.2% | D+10.3 | D+0.8 |
| 1992 | 44.6% | 35.1% | D+9.5 | D+10.0 |
| 1988 | 49.2% | 49.7% | R+0.5 | D+9.1 |
| 1984 | 44.8% | 54.4% | R+9.6 | R+2.1 |
| 1980 | 42.2% | 49.7% | R+7.6 | R+10.2 |
| 1976 | 50.3% | 47.6% | D+2.6 | D+25.2 |
| 1972 | 37.7% | 60.2% | R+22.5 | R+24.1 |
| 1968 | 48.1% | 46.5% | D+1.6 | R+34.1 |
| 1964 | 67.6% | 31.9% | D+35.7 | D+41.9 |
| 1960 | 46.8% | 53.0% | R+6.2 | D+22.1 |
| 1956 | 35.7% | 64.0% | R+28.3 | R+6.6 |
| 1952 | 38.8% | 60.6% | R+21.8 | R+6.8 |
| 1948 | 41.7% | 56.7% | R+15.0 | — |
What defines Erie?
Erie has been won by both parties in the last 6 presidential elections (3D, 3R) — a genuine swing geography.
Constituent Counties
Similar media markets
Nearest neighbors matched on the same place-page feature set used across the dossier system.
Bangor
Small-town rural republican 2
Binghamton
Small-town rural republican 2
Alpena
Small-town rural republican 2
Elmira (Corning)
Small-town rural republican
Wausau-Rhinelander
Small-town rural republican 2
Utica
Small-town rural republican 2
Johnstown-Altoona-State College
Small-town rural republican
Flint-Saginaw-Bay City
Small-town rural republican 2
Counties in Erie
2024 presidential results across the counties that make up this geography.
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Ask the Historian
Explore Erie's political evolution with the Historian
Key Insights
High-confidence patterns distilled from this geography's election history.
- Won by both parties in recent history — Democrats most recently in 2012, Republicans in 2024
- Highly elastic — margins have ranged 24.1 points across recent elections, suggesting a volatile electorate
Who Lives Here
A race-first Census view with ancestry expansion where source coverage is strong enough to support detail.
Census race profile
Major Census race and ethnicity groups shown as a share of total population.
| Group | Erie | National |
|---|---|---|
▶White (Non-Hispanic)(13) | 85.3% | 57.4% |
▶Black / African American(13) | 5.3% | 12.2% |
▶Hispanic / Latino(16) | 3.8% | 19.3% |
Multiracial / Other | 3.8% | 4.0% |
▶Asian(6) | 1.7% | 6.0% |
▶Middle Eastern / North African(10) | 0.6% | 0.9% |
▶Native American / Alaska Native(2) | 0.1% | 0.9% |
Method notes
Religious Adherents
Population that are religious adherents:
39.3%
Catholic-Evangelical edge: +7.6pp (vs national 4.5pp). A moderate religious balance between Catholic and Evangelical traditions.
| Tradition | % Pop | % Adherents | US Pop | US Adherents |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 15.3% | 39.0% | — | — | |
| 10.6% | 26.9% | — | — | |
| 10.6% | 26.9% | — | — | |
| 1.7% | 4.4% | — | — | |
| 1.0% | 2.5% | — | — | |
LDS (Mormon) | 0.3% | 0.7% | — | — |
Non-religiousPopulation | 60.7% | — | — | — |
Who lives in the Erie media market? 389,688 residents across 3 counties.
Demographics
Read this geography's profile in three layers: local, state (where available), and national baseline.
27% of adults hold a bachelor's degree — 6pp below the national average. Places with similar education levels vote R+3 on average nationally.
Population & electorate
Scale, voting-age share, and this geography's footprint inside the national electorate.
Total population
390K
Share of U.S. population
0.12%
Voting-age population
74.8%
Economic profile
Income, attainment, and ownership indicators that often shape coalition structure and turnout behavior.
Median household income
$62,459
Poverty rate
14.4%
College degree
27.3%
Homeownership
70.6%
Community profile
Age structure, language use, and nativity signals that explain how this geography differs from state and nation.
Median age
41.7 yrs
Age 18–29
15.1%
Age 65+
20.8%
Foreign born
3.7%
Non-English at home
6.2%
English only
93.8%
Turnout in Erie
Estimated using 2020 Census voting-age population.
69.0%
+0.5pp
291,554
1988–2024
How competitive is Erie?
Likely RAvg margin: R+12.4 (last 3 elections)
2008
D+11.0
2012
D+5.2
2016
R+12.8
2020
R+11.2
2024
R+13.1
24.1pp
1
R+4.2
Do voters in Erie split their tickets?
Divergence between offices in the same election reveals persuadable voters.
Moderate splitting (58/100)
| Offices | Margin A | Margin B | Split |
|---|---|---|---|
| President vs Senate | R+13.1 | R+9.9 | 3.2pp |
Average divergence across office pairs: 8.7pp
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