Wilmington
Latest: 2024
Safe Republican — 533K residents — 5 counties
Race & ancestry
| Group | % |
|---|---|
▶White (Non-Hispanic)(13) | 73.7% |
▶Hispanic / Latino(18) | 7.2% |
▶Black / African American(12) | 13.1% |
▶Asian(6) | 1.0% |
▶Middle Eastern / North African(9) | 0.4% |
▶Native American / Alaska Native(3) | 0.8% |
Multiracial / Other | 4.2% |
Religious adherence
| Tradition | % Pop | % Adherents |
|---|---|---|
| Evangelical Protestant | 19.7% | 43.0% |
| Catholic | 10.2% | 22.2% |
| Mainline Protestant | 7.7% | 16.9% |
| Black Protestant | 5.1% | 11.1% |
| Other | 2.9% | 6.3% |
| LDS (Mormon) | 0.9% | 2.1% |
| Orthodox Christian | 0.2% | 0.3% |
| Non-religious | 54.2% | — |
Presidential results
| Year | Result |
|---|---|
| 2024 | Trump+15.8 |
| 2020 | Trump+13.2 |
| 2016 | Trump+15.7 |
| 2012 | Romney+10.6 |
| 2008 | McCain+7.4 |
| 2004 | Bush+12.6 |
| 2000 | Bush+5.9 |
| 1996 | Dole+0.5 |
| 1992 | Clinton+5.8 |
Wilmington is a media market that has a population of 533,053. In the 2024 presidential election, it voted Republican with a margin of R+15.8. Akashic Edge tracks 40 presidential elections here, dating back to 1868.
| Year | Dem % | Rep % | Margin | Swing |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2024 | 41.5% | 57.3% | R+15.8 | R+2.6 |
| 2020 | 42.7% | 55.9% | R+13.2 | D+2.4 |
| 2016 | 40.3% | 55.9% | R+15.7 | R+5.0 |
| 2012 | 44.1% | 54.7% | R+10.6 | R+3.2 |
| 2008 | 45.8% | 53.3% | R+7.4 | D+5.1 |
| 2004 | 43.5% | 56.1% | R+12.6 | R+6.6 |
| 2000 | 46.7% | 52.6% | R+5.9 | R+5.4 |
| 1996 | 45.9% | 46.4% | R+0.5 | R+6.3 |
| 1992 | 46.1% | 40.2% | D+5.8 | D+13.8 |
| 1988 | 45.9% | 53.9% | R+8.0 | D+8.5 |
| 1984 | 41.6% | 58.1% | R+16.5 | R+25.1 |
| 1980 | 53.0% | 44.3% | D+8.6 | R+19.8 |
| 1976 | 63.8% | 35.4% | D+28.4 | D+73.2 |
| 1972 | 26.5% | 71.3% | R+44.8 | R+45.7 |
| 1968 | 30.4% | 29.5% | D+0.9 | R+14.7 |
| 1964 | 57.8% | 42.2% | D+15.7 | R+12.9 |
| 1960 | 64.3% | 35.7% | D+28.6 | D+6.4 |
| 1956 | 61.1% | 38.9% | D+22.1 | D+4.8 |
| 1952 | 58.7% | 41.3% | D+17.3 | R+17.2 |
| 1948 | 58.3% | 23.8% | D+34.6 | — |
What defines Wilmington?
It has a moderately diverse, middle-class electorate where education levels and suburban growth shape the partisan balance.
Constituent Counties
Similar media markets
Nearest neighbors matched on the same place-page feature set used across the dossier system.
Bangor
Small-town rural republican 2
Wausau-Rhinelander
Small-town rural republican 2
Traverse City-Cadillac
Small-town rural republican 2
Missoula
Small-town rural republican 2
Alpena
Small-town rural republican 2
Salisbury
Small-town rural republican 2
Helena
Small-town rural republican 2
Medford-Klamath Falls
Small-town rural republican 2
Counties in Wilmington
2024 presidential results across the counties that make up this geography.
Sort:
| County | Pop. | Margin | Dem | Rep | Total | Share |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| New Hanover | 235K | D+0.6 | 68,814 | 67,949 | 138,734 | 42.0% |
| Brunswick | 153K | R+24.8 | 40,557 | 67,658 | 109,378 | 33.1% |
| Pender | 66K | R+34.9 | 12,460 | 26,042 | 38,909 | 11.8% |
| Columbus | 50K | R+33.9 | 8,648 | 17,592 | 26,402 | 8.0% |
| Bladen | 30K | R+20.4 | 6,620 | 10,035 | 16,764 | 5.1% |
5 countiesTotal votes: 330,187
Ask the Historian
Explore Wilmington's political evolution with the Historian
Key Insights
High-confidence patterns distilled from this geography's election history.
- Has voted Republican in the last 5 presidential elections
- Split-ticket voting in 2024: Different parties won President and Governor
- Turnout increased by 7.2 percentage points since the previous presidential election
Who Lives Here
A race-first Census view with ancestry expansion where source coverage is strong enough to support detail.
Census race profile
Major Census race and ethnicity groups shown as a share of total population.
| Group | Wilmington | National |
|---|---|---|
▶White (Non-Hispanic)(13) | 73.7% | 57.4% |
▶Black / African American(12) | 13.1% | 12.2% |
▶Hispanic / Latino(18) | 7.2% | 19.3% |
Multiracial / Other | 4.2% | 4.0% |
▶Asian(6) | 1.0% | 6.0% |
▶Native American / Alaska Native(3) | 0.8% | 0.9% |
▶Middle Eastern / North African(9) | 0.4% | 0.9% |
Method notes
Religious Adherents
Population that are religious adherents:
45.8%
Catholic-Evangelical edge: -25.3pp (vs national 4.5pp). A strongly Evangelical-leaning religious profile, which nationally correlates with Republican-leaning rural and exurban communities.
| Tradition | % Pop | % Adherents | US Pop | US Adherents |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 19.7% | 43.0% | — | — | |
| 10.2% | 22.2% | — | — | |
| 7.7% | 16.9% | — | — | |
| 5.1% | 11.1% | — | — | |
| 2.9% | 6.3% | — | — | |
LDS (Mormon) | 0.9% | 2.1% | — | — |
| 0.2% | 0.3% | — | — | |
Non-religiousPopulation | 54.2% | — | — | — |
Who lives in the Wilmington media market? 533,053 residents across 5 counties.
Demographics
Read this geography's profile in three layers: local, state (where available), and national baseline.
Population & electorate
Scale, voting-age share, and this geography's footprint inside the national electorate.
Total population
533K
Share of U.S. population
0.16%
Voting-age population
80.3%
Economic profile
Income, attainment, and ownership indicators that often shape coalition structure and turnout behavior.
Median household income
$72,388
Poverty rate
12.2%
College degree
36.2%
Homeownership
71.9%
Community profile
Age structure, language use, and nativity signals that explain how this geography differs from state and nation.
Median age
45.4 yrs
Age 18–29
14.7%
Age 65+
23.6%
Foreign born
4.7%
Non-English at home
6.9%
English only
93.1%
Turnout in Wilmington
Estimated using 2020 Census voting-age population.
77.2%
+7.2pp
427,925
1988–2024
How competitive is Wilmington?
Likely RAvg margin: R+14.9 (last 3 elections)
2008
R+7.4
2012
R+10.6
2016
R+15.7
2020
R+13.2
2024
R+15.8
8.4pp
0
R+12.6
Do voters in Wilmington split their tickets?
Divergence between offices in the same election reveals persuadable voters.
Heavy splitting (40/100)
| Offices | Margin A | Margin B | Split |
|---|---|---|---|
| President vs Governor | R+15.8 | D+8.3 | 24.1pp |
Average divergence across office pairs: 11.6pp
Located In
Wilmington sits inside these higher-level geographies.
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