Skip to main content
Roanoke-Lynchburg

Roanoke-Lynchburg

Latest: 2024↓ R+3.6 vs 2020

Safe Republican — shifted 3.6pp toward Republicans in 2024 — 1.1M residents — 37 counties

Ask HistorianOpen in ExploreCompareShare image
Race & ancestry
Group%
▶White (Non-Hispanic)(13)
75.8%
▶Hispanic / Latino(19)
4.3%
▶Black / African American(12)
14.3%
▶Asian(6)
1.9%
▶Middle Eastern / North African(10)
0.5%
▶Native American / Alaska Native(1)
0.2%
▶Native Hawaiian / Pacific Islander(3)
0.1%
Multiracial / Other
3.5%
View full demographics →
Religious adherence
Tradition% Pop% Adherents
Evangelical Protestant32.6%62.5%
Mainline Protestant10.2%19.5%
Catholic4.4%8.4%
Other2.9%5.6%
Black Protestant2.0%3.8%
LDS (Mormon)1.2%2.4%
Non-religious47.9%—
View full religion →
Presidential results
YearResult
2024Trump+27.7
2020Trump+24.1
2016Trump+25.7
2012Romney+17.0
2008McCain+12.4
2004Bush+20.9
2000Bush+17.0
1996Dole+4.5
1992Bush+6.8
View full election history →

Roanoke-Lynchburg is a media market that has a population of 1,142,874. In the 2024 presidential election, it voted Republican with a margin of R+27.7. Akashic Edge tracks 40 presidential elections here, dating back to 1868.

Roanoke-Lynchburg Presidential Election Results, 1948–2024
YearDem %Rep %MarginSwing
202435.6%63.4%R+27.7R+3.6
202037.1%61.2%R+24.1D+1.5
201634.6%60.3%R+25.7R+8.6
201240.4%57.5%R+17.0R+4.6
200843.2%55.6%R+12.4D+8.5
200439.0%60.0%R+20.9R+4.0
200040.0%57.0%R+17.0R+12.4
199642.7%47.2%R+4.5D+2.2
199239.6%46.4%R+6.8D+13.3
198839.3%59.4%R+20.0D+9.0
198435.1%64.1%R+29.0R+19.4
198042.9%52.5%R+9.6R+10.9
197649.3%48.0%D+1.2D+45.7
197226.6%71.0%R+44.5R+24.6
196825.9%45.8%R+19.9R+17.9
196448.8%50.8%R+1.9D+9.0
196044.2%55.2%R+11.0D+9.7
195637.5%58.2%R+20.7R+4.2
195241.6%58.1%R+16.5R+18.8
194844.1%41.8%D+2.3—
Political Identity

What defines Roanoke-Lynchburg?

Roanoke-Lynchburg voted overwhelmingly Republican in 2024. Akashic Edge tracks 40 presidential elections here, revealing how its political character has evolved over more than a century.

Constituent Counties

Open in Cartographer
Similarity Explorer

Similar media markets

Nearest neighbors matched on the same place-page feature set used across the dossier system.
8 visible matches
Constituent Geography

Counties in Roanoke-Lynchburg

2024 presidential results across the counties that make up this geography.
Sort:
CountyPop.MarginDemRepTotalShare
Montgomery99K
D+3.5
23,81122,17946,7677.8%
Roanoke City98K
D+23.6
25,73715,78742,1287.0%
Roanoke97K
R+22.5
21,69334,45356,7899.4%
Bedford81K
R+50.4
12,41438,01750,8308.4%
Lynchburg City79K
R+7.9
16,66419,57436,7156.1%
Pittsylvania60K
R+43.1
9,59924,31034,1005.7%
Campbell55K
R+48.6
7,89023,03231,1715.2%
Franklin55K
R+45.3
8,32122,31930,9125.1%
Henry50K
R+32.8
8,45716,80025,4134.2%
Danville City42K
D+21.1
10,6156,89417,6672.9%
Botetourt34K
R+45.1
5,91515,79621,8933.6%
Pulaski34K
R+44.7
4,83012,73217,6902.9%
Halifax34K
R+21.1
6,98410,74117,8443.0%
Amherst31K
R+36.5
5,42911,74217,3032.9%
Carroll29K
R+63.3
2,92513,15216,1602.7%
Wythe28K
R+59.5
3,07512,26715,4392.6%
Salem City26K
R+19.3
5,2377,76913,1482.2%
Rockbridge23K
R+33.8
4,1608,46812,7522.1%
Radford City17K
D+0.5
3,2313,1976,5501.1%
Appomattox17K
R+51.0
2,3247,2439,6421.6%
Giles17K
R+54.5
2,0697,1029,2341.5%
Floyd16K
R+37.2
2,9686,5519,6251.6%
Grayson15K
R+62.2
1,5036,5448,1041.3%
Alleghany15K
R+48.1
2,1146,0938,2771.4%
Nelson15K
R+7.5
4,2985,0049,3881.6%
Martinsville City14K
D+22.6
3,4352,1555,6580.9%
Charlotte11K
R+32.5
2,0083,9636,0061.0%
Pocahontas8K
R+50.3
9272,8893,9010.6%
Lexington City8K
D+26.7
1,7951,0302,8630.5%
Galax City7K
R+43.9
7531,9462,7170.5%
Buena Vista City7K
R+44.4
7672,0352,8530.5%
Bland6K
R+69.7
5242,9983,5480.6%
Covington City6K
R+33.3
8181,6422,4750.4%
Craig5K
R+64.7
5422,5623,1210.5%
Bath4K
R+53.8
5881,9762,5820.4%
Highland2K
R+44.4
4161,0951,5290.3%
Legacy FIPS 51515--
E
0000.0%
37 countiesTotal votes: 602,794
Historian Query

Ask the Historian

Explore Roanoke-Lynchburg's political evolution with the Historian
Automated Readout

Key Insights

High-confidence patterns distilled from this geography's election history.
  • Has voted Republican in the last 5 presidential elections
  • Latest election (2024) was a Republican landslide with a 27.7% margin
Race & Ancestry

Who Lives Here

A race-first Census view with ancestry expansion where source coverage is strong enough to support detail.
Roanoke-LynchburgCensus ACS 2024Ancestry detail available
Census race profile
Major Census race and ethnicity groups shown as a share of total population.
Expand rows for ancestry detail
White (Non-Hispanic) 75.8%Black 14.3%Hispanic 4.3%Multiracial 3.5%Asian 1.9%
GroupRoanoke-LynchburgNational
▶White (Non-Hispanic)(13)
75.8%57.4%
▶Black / African American(12)
14.3%12.2%
▶Hispanic / Latino(19)
4.3%19.3%
Multiracial / Other
3.5%4.0%
▶Asian(6)
1.9%6.0%
▶Middle Eastern / North African(10)
0.5%0.9%
▶Native American / Alaska Native(1)
0.2%0.9%
▶Native Hawaiian / Pacific Islander(3)
0.1%0.2%
Method notes

Census treats race and Hispanic/Latino origin as separate questions. Race categories other than Hispanic reflect total populations (small Hispanic overlap in Black, Asian, AIAN, NHPI). “Multiracial / Other” is derived as a non-overlapping remainder.

Click rows to expand ancestry detail. Ancestry from ACS B04006, B03001, B02020, B02016. Totals may differ from race — individuals can report multiple ancestries.

Black / African American (estimated remainder) is derived as Black population share minus reported Sub-Saharan African and West Indian ancestry. It is shown as an estimated ancestry detail, not a standalone Census ancestry category.

MENA estimated from ancestry reporting — Census does not have a separate MENA race category. Not shown in bar (overlaps with other race groups).

Religious Adherents

Population that are religious adherents:
52.2%(596.0K people)
U.S. Religion Census 2020
Browse all religions

Catholic-Evangelical edge: -58.6pp (vs national 4.5pp). A strongly Evangelical-leaning religious profile, which nationally correlates with Republican-leaning rural and exurban communities.

Tradition% Pop% AdherentsUS PopUS Adherents
Evangelical Protestant
32.6%62.5%——
Mainline Protestant
10.2%19.5%——
Catholic
4.4%8.4%——
Other
2.9%5.6%——
Black Protestant
2.0%3.8%——
LDS (Mormon)
1.2%2.4%——
Non-religiousPopulation
47.9%———
Click the chevron to expand denominations. Tradition and denomination rows label both share of total population and share of all religious adherents. Non-religious is shown as a share of total population only.

Who lives in the Roanoke-Lynchburg media market? 1,142,874 residents across 37 counties.

Demographic Comparison

Demographics

Read this geography's profile in three layers: local, state (where available), and national baseline.
Roanoke-Lynchburg vs National1.1M residents
Population & electorate

Scale, voting-age share, and this geography's footprint inside the national electorate.

Total population
Local vs state vs U.S.
1.1M
local
1.1MNational 334.9M
Share of U.S. population
Local vs state vs U.S.
0.34%
local
0.34%National 100%
Voting-age population
Local vs state vs U.S.
76.6%
local
76.6%National 75.7%
Economic profile

Income, attainment, and ownership indicators that often shape coalition structure and turnout behavior.

Median household income
Local vs state vs U.S.
$63,575
local
$63,575National $83,960
Poverty rate
Local vs state vs U.S.
15.0%
local
15.0%National 12.5%
College degree
Local vs state vs U.S.
28.6%
local
28.6%National 35.6%
Homeownership
Local vs state vs U.S.
69.7%
local
69.7%National 65.2%
Community profile

Age structure, language use, and nativity signals that explain how this geography differs from state and nation.

Median age
Local vs state vs U.S.
42.1 yrs
local
42.1 yrsNational 39.1 yrs
Age 18–29
Local vs state vs U.S.
17.2%
local
17.2%National 15.7%
Age 65+
Local vs state vs U.S.
21.2%
local
21.2%National 17.0%
Foreign born
Local vs state vs U.S.
4.1%
local
4.1%National 14.1%
Non-English at home
Local vs state vs U.S.
5.7%
local
5.7%National 22.2%
English only
Local vs state vs U.S.
94.3%
local
94.3%National 77.8%
Voter Turnout

Turnout in Roanoke-Lynchburg

Estimated using 2020 Census voting-age population.
2024 Turnout
68.9%
vs Previous
+0.7pp
Voting-Age Pop
875,514
History
1988–2024
Competitiveness

How competitive is Roanoke-Lynchburg?

Safe RAvg margin: R+25.8 (last 3 elections)
2008
R+12.4
2012
R+17.0
2016
R+25.7
2020
R+24.1
2024
R+27.7
Elasticity
15.3pp
margin range
Party Flips
0
last 30 years
5-Elec Avg
R+21.4
Ticket-Splitting

Do voters in Roanoke-Lynchburg split their tickets?

Divergence between offices in the same election reveals persuadable voters.
ConsistencyHeavy splitting (0/100)
2024 Office Comparisons
OfficesMargin AMargin BSplit
Senate vs GovernorR+21.2R+37.516.3pp
President vs GovernorR+27.7R+37.59.8pp
President vs SenateR+27.7R+21.26.5pp
Average divergence across office pairs: 22.9pp
Upgrade Path

Unlock Media Market Analytics

Advance from the public dossier into precinct-level, insight-rich district intelligence.
Target plan Pro$33/mo
Precinct data, Smart Insights, full history, and export controls tailored to place pages.
Precinct-Level Data
See results for every neighborhood and voting precinct
Smart Insights
Automated highlights from recent election patterns
Full Historical Access
165 years of election data at every level of geography
CSV Exports
Download any table or chart as a CSV file
Upgrade to Pro$33/mo