Gainesville
Competitive — shifted 7.2pp toward Republicans in 2024 — 367K residents — 4 counties
| Group | % |
|---|---|
▶White (Non-Hispanic)(13) | 62.5% |
▶Hispanic / Latino(20) | 11.7% |
▶Black / African American(14) | 16.4% |
▶Asian(6) | 4.8% |
▶Middle Eastern / North African(10) | 1.0% |
▶Native American / Alaska Native(1) | 0.2% |
Multiracial / Other | 4.3% |
| Tradition | % Pop | % Adherents |
|---|---|---|
| Evangelical Protestant | 24.1% | 56.7% |
| Catholic | 8.0% | 18.7% |
| Mainline Protestant | 5.1% | 11.9% |
| Other | 3.6% | 8.5% |
| Black Protestant | 1.8% | 4.2% |
| LDS (Mormon) | 1.4% | 3.3% |
| Non-religious | 57.4% | — |
| Year | Result |
|---|---|
| 2024 | Harris+1.9 |
| 2020 | Biden+9.0 |
| 2016 | Clinton+6.4 |
| 2012 | Obama+5.0 |
| 2008 | Obama+9.4 |
| 2004 | Kerry+3.5 |
| 2000 | Gore+8.8 |
| 1996 | Clinton+16.8 |
| 1992 | Clinton+16.9 |
Gainesville is a media market that has a population of 366,981. In the 2024 presidential election, it voted Democratic with a margin of D+1.9. Akashic Edge tracks 39 presidential elections here, dating back to 1872.
| Year | Dem % | Rep % | Margin | Swing |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2024 | 50.3% | 48.4% | D+1.9 | R+7.2 |
| 2020 | 53.9% | 44.9% | D+9.0 | D+2.6 |
| 2016 | 51.1% | 44.7% | D+6.4 | D+1.4 |
| 2012 | 51.6% | 46.6% | D+5.0 | R+4.4 |
| 2008 | 53.9% | 44.5% | D+9.4 | D+5.9 |
| 2004 | 51.3% | 47.8% | D+3.5 | R+5.2 |
| 2000 | 52.1% | 43.3% | D+8.8 | R+8.1 |
| 1996 | 51.8% | 35.0% | D+16.8 | R+0.1 |
| 1992 | 47.6% | 30.7% | D+16.9 | D+22.2 |
| 1988 | 46.9% | 52.1% | R+5.2 | D+6.4 |
| 1984 | 44.1% | 55.8% | R+11.7 | R+26.2 |
| 1980 | 53.4% | 38.8% | D+14.6 | R+16.4 |
| 1976 | 64.3% | 33.3% | D+31.0 | D+52.0 |
| 1972 | 39.4% | 60.4% | R+21.1 | R+22.6 |
| 1968 | 31.6% | 30.1% | D+1.5 | R+7.8 |
| 1964 | 54.7% | 45.3% | D+9.3 | D+3.9 |
| 1960 | 52.7% | 47.3% | D+5.5 | R+0.4 |
| 1956 | 52.8% | 47.0% | D+5.8 | D+7.4 |
| 1952 | 49.2% | 50.8% | R+1.6 | R+28.0 |
| 1948 | 45.5% | 19.2% | D+26.4 | — |
What defines Gainesville?
It has a racially mixed, moderately educated electorate — the suburban swing demographic that decides close elections.
Constituent Counties
Similar media markets
Counties in Gainesville
Ask the Historian
Key Insights
- Has voted Democratic in the last 5 presidential elections
- The 2024 election was decided by just 1.9 points — razor-thin
- Split-ticket voting in 2024: Different parties won President and Senate
Who Lives Here
| Group | Gainesville | National |
|---|---|---|
▶White (Non-Hispanic)(13) | 62.5% | 57.4% |
▶Black / African American(14) | 16.4% | 12.2% |
▶Hispanic / Latino(20) | 11.7% | 19.3% |
▶Asian(6) | 4.8% | 6.0% |
Multiracial / Other | 4.3% | 4.0% |
▶Middle Eastern / North African(10) | 1.0% | 0.9% |
▶Native American / Alaska Native(1) | 0.2% | 0.9% |
Religious Adherents
Catholic-Evangelical edge: -42.4pp (vs national 4.5pp). A strongly Evangelical-leaning religious profile, which nationally correlates with Republican-leaning rural and exurban communities.
| Tradition | % Pop | % Adherents | US Pop | US Adherents |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 24.1% | 56.7% | — | — | |
| 8.0% | 18.7% | — | — | |
| 5.1% | 11.9% | — | — | |
| 3.6% | 8.5% | — | — | |
| 1.8% | 4.2% | — | — | |
LDS (Mormon) | 1.4% | 3.3% | — | — |
Non-religiousPopulation | 57.4% | — | — | — |
Who lives in the Gainesville media market? 366,981 residents across 4 counties.
Demographics
41% of adults hold a bachelor's degree — 8pp above the national average. Places with similar education levels vote D+16 on average nationally.
Scale, voting-age share, and this geography's footprint inside the national electorate.
Income, attainment, and ownership indicators that often shape coalition structure and turnout behavior.
Age structure, language use, and nativity signals that explain how this geography differs from state and nation.
Turnout in Gainesville
How competitive is Gainesville?
Do voters in Gainesville split their tickets?
| Offices | Margin A | Margin B | Split |
|---|---|---|---|
| President vs Senate | D+1.9 | R+0.5 | 2.4pp |