Tallahassee-Thomasville
Latest: 2024
Leans Republican — shifted 7.1pp toward Republicans in 2024 — 771K residents — 19 counties
Race & ancestry
| Group | % |
|---|---|
▶White (Non-Hispanic)(13) | 55.2% |
▶Hispanic / Latino(20) | 8.0% |
▶Black / African American(12) | 30.9% |
▶Asian(6) | 2.0% |
▶Middle Eastern / North African(9) | 0.4% |
▶Native American / Alaska Native(2) | 0.4% |
Multiracial / Other | 3.4% |
Religious adherence
| Tradition | % Pop | % Adherents |
|---|---|---|
| Evangelical Protestant | 29.8% | 61.2% |
| Black Protestant | 7.4% | 15.2% |
| Mainline Protestant | 4.9% | 10.0% |
| Catholic | 3.8% | 7.8% |
| Other | 2.8% | 5.7% |
| LDS (Mormon) | 1.2% | 2.4% |
| Non-religious | 51.3% | — |
Presidential results
| Year | Result |
|---|---|
| 2024 | Trump+7.2 |
| 2020 | Trump+0.1 |
| 2016 | Trump+0.7 |
| 2012 | Obama+3.0 |
| 2008 | Obama+3.6 |
| 2004 | Kerry+3.4 |
| 2000 | Gore+4.6 |
| 1996 | Clinton+10.6 |
| 1992 | Clinton+9.2 |
Tallahassee-Thomasville is a media market that has a population of 771,474. In the 2024 presidential election, it voted Republican with a margin of R+7.2. Akashic Edge tracks 40 presidential elections here, dating back to 1868.
| Year | Dem % | Rep % | Margin | Swing |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2024 | 46.0% | 53.2% | R+7.2 | R+7.1 |
| 2020 | 49.5% | 49.5% | R+0.1 | D+0.7 |
| 2016 | 48.0% | 48.8% | R+0.7 | R+3.8 |
| 2012 | 50.9% | 47.9% | D+3.0 | R+0.6 |
| 2008 | 51.3% | 47.7% | D+3.6 | D+0.2 |
| 2004 | 51.4% | 48.0% | D+3.4 | R+1.2 |
| 2000 | 51.3% | 46.7% | D+4.6 | R+6.0 |
| 1996 | 50.6% | 40.0% | D+10.6 | D+1.3 |
| 1992 | 45.6% | 36.4% | D+9.2 | D+23.1 |
| 1988 | 42.7% | 56.6% | R+13.9 | D+2.0 |
| 1984 | 42.0% | 57.9% | R+15.9 | R+26.9 |
| 1980 | 53.6% | 42.5% | D+11.0 | R+13.6 |
| 1976 | 61.6% | 37.1% | D+24.6 | D+68.1 |
| 1972 | 28.2% | 71.7% | R+43.5 | R+50.1 |
| 1968 | 26.3% | 19.7% | D+6.6 | D+27.7 |
| 1964 | 39.5% | 60.5% | R+21.1 | R+46.6 |
| 1960 | 62.7% | 37.2% | D+25.5 | R+10.0 |
| 1956 | 67.6% | 32.1% | D+35.5 | D+2.3 |
| 1952 | 66.6% | 33.4% | D+33.2 | R+13.4 |
| 1948 | 60.0% | 13.3% | D+46.6 | — |
What defines Tallahassee-Thomasville?
Tallahassee-Thomasville has been won by both parties in the last 6 presidential elections (3D, 3R) — a genuine swing geography.
Constituent Counties
Similar media markets
Nearest neighbors matched on the same place-page feature set used across the dossier system.
Counties in Tallahassee-Thomasville
2024 presidential results across the counties that make up this geography.
Sort:
| County | Pop. | Margin | Dem | Rep | Total | Share |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Leon | 298K | D+21.8 | 94,520 | 60,397 | 156,802 | 42.2% |
| Lowndes | 120K | R+18.0 | 19,487 | 28,081 | 47,795 | 12.9% |
| Thomas | 46K | R+24.1 | 8,347 | 13,670 | 22,080 | 5.9% |
| Suwannee | 45K | R+61.0 | 4,217 | 17,561 | 21,891 | 5.9% |
| Gadsden | 44K | D+30.7 | 14,203 | 7,495 | 21,868 | 5.9% |
| Wakulla | 35K | R+44.3 | 5,441 | 14,246 | 19,856 | 5.3% |
| Decatur | 29K | R+24.0 | 4,372 | 7,140 | 11,549 | 3.1% |
| Grady | 26K | R+38.2 | 3,290 | 7,385 | 10,718 | 2.9% |
| Taylor | 22K | R+59.6 | 1,991 | 7,954 | 9,997 | 2.7% |
| Madison | 18K | R+28.9 | 3,231 | 5,874 | 9,156 | 2.5% |
| Brooks | 16K | R+26.8 | 2,629 | 4,560 | 7,210 | 1.9% |
| Jefferson | 15K | R+18.6 | 3,429 | 5,011 | 8,502 | 2.3% |
| Hamilton | 14K | R+39.0 | 1,727 | 3,964 | 5,733 | 1.5% |
| Lanier | 10K | R+46.3 | 995 | 2,726 | 3,736 | 1.0% |
| Seminole | 9K | R+40.4 | 1,191 | 2,811 | 4,007 | 1.1% |
| Lafayette | 8K | R+76.0 | 441 | 3,296 | 3,756 | 1.0% |
| Clinch | 7K | R+51.5 | 702 | 2,201 | 2,908 | 0.8% |
| Miller | 6K | R+50.5 | 670 | 2,045 | 2,724 | 0.7% |
| Echols | 4K | R+82.1 | 127 | 1,307 | 1,438 | 0.4% |
19 countiesTotal votes: 371,726
Ask the Historian
Explore Tallahassee-Thomasville's political evolution with the Historian
Key Insights
High-confidence patterns distilled from this geography's election history.
- The 2020 election was decided by just 0.1 points — razor-thin
- Won by both parties in recent history — Democrats most recently in 2012, Republicans in 2024
- Swung 7.1 points toward Republican between 2020 and 2024
Who Lives Here
A race-first Census view with ancestry expansion where source coverage is strong enough to support detail.
Census race profile
Major Census race and ethnicity groups shown as a share of total population.
| Group | Local | National |
|---|---|---|
▶White (Non-Hispanic)(13) | 55.2% | 57.4% |
▶Black / African American(12) | 30.9% | 12.2% |
▶Hispanic / Latino(20) | 8.0% | 19.3% |
Multiracial / Other | 3.4% | 4.0% |
▶Asian(6) | 2.0% | 6.0% |
▶Middle Eastern / North African(9) | 0.4% | 0.9% |
▶Native American / Alaska Native(2) | 0.4% | 0.9% |
Method notes
Religious Adherents
Population that are religious adherents:
48.7%
Catholic-Evangelical edge: -57.8pp (vs national 4.5pp). A strongly Evangelical-leaning religious profile, which nationally correlates with Republican-leaning rural and exurban communities.
| Tradition | % Pop | % Adherents | US Pop | US Adherents |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 29.8% | 61.2% | — | — | |
| 7.4% | 15.2% | — | — | |
| 4.9% | 10.0% | — | — | |
| 3.8% | 7.8% | — | — | |
| 2.8% | 5.7% | — | — | |
LDS (Mormon) | 1.2% | 2.4% | — | — |
Non-religiousPopulation | 51.3% | — | — | — |
Who lives in the Tallahassee-Thomasville media market? 771,474 residents across 19 counties.
Demographics
Read this geography's profile in three layers: local, state (where available), and national baseline.
Population & electorate
Scale, voting-age share, and this geography's footprint inside the national electorate.
Total population
771K
Share of U.S. population
0.23%
Voting-age population
73.4%
Economic profile
Income, attainment, and ownership indicators that often shape coalition structure and turnout behavior.
Median household income
$60,850
Poverty rate
19.1%
College degree
31.5%
Homeownership
61.7%
Community profile
Age structure, language use, and nativity signals that explain how this geography differs from state and nation.
Median age
36.4 yrs
Age 18–29
20.9%
Age 65+
16.9%
Foreign born
5.5%
Non-English at home
8.8%
English only
91.2%
Turnout in Tallahassee-Thomasville
Estimated using 2020 Census voting-age population.
65.7%
-0.7pp
566,105
1988–2024
How competitive is Tallahassee-Thomasville?
Tilt RAvg margin: R+2.7 (last 3 elections)
2008
D+3.6
2012
D+3.0
2016
R+0.7
2020
R+0.1
2024
R+7.2
10.8pp
1
R+0.3
Do voters in Tallahassee-Thomasville split their tickets?
Divergence between offices in the same election reveals persuadable voters.
Heavy splitting (0/100)
| Offices | Margin A | Margin B | Split |
|---|---|---|---|
| President vs Senate | R+7.2 | R+3.0 | 4.2pp |
Average divergence across office pairs: 19.4pp
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