SantaBarbra-SanMar-SanLuOb
Latest: 2024
Safe Democratic — shifted 4.1pp toward Republicans in 2024 — 725K residents — 2 counties
Race & ancestry
| Group | % |
|---|---|
▶White (Non-Hispanic)(13) | 49.9% |
▶Hispanic / Latino(18) | 39.2% |
▶Black / African American(9) | 1.5% |
▶Asian(6) | 4.7% |
▶Middle Eastern / North African(11) | 1.0% |
▶Native American / Alaska Native(5) | 1.6% |
▶Native Hawaiian / Pacific Islander(3) | 0.1% |
Multiracial / Other | 3.0% |
Religious adherence
| Tradition | % Pop | % Adherents |
|---|---|---|
| Catholic | 28.2% | 64.4% |
| Evangelical Protestant | 7.1% | 16.3% |
| Other | 5.9% | 13.5% |
| LDS (Mormon) | 1.8% | 4.2% |
| Mainline Protestant | 1.6% | 3.7% |
| Black Protestant | 0.7% | 1.6% |
| Orthodox Christian | 0.2% | 0.5% |
| Non-religious | 56.3% | — |
Presidential results
| Year | Result |
|---|---|
| 2024 | Harris+19.6 |
| 2020 | Biden+23.6 |
| 2016 | Clinton+19.5 |
| 2012 | Obama+10.6 |
| 2008 | Obama+15.3 |
| 2004 | Kerry+1.4 |
| 2000 | Bush+3.9 |
| 1996 | Clinton+0.2 |
| 1992 | Clinton+5.8 |
SantaBarbra-SanMar-SanLuOb is a media market that has a population of 725,256. In the 2024 presidential election, it voted Democratic with a margin of D+19.6. Akashic Edge tracks 40 presidential elections here, dating back to 1868.
| Year | Dem % | Rep % | Margin | Swing |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2024 | 58.3% | 38.7% | D+19.6 | R+4.1 |
| 2020 | 60.6% | 37.0% | D+23.6 | D+4.1 |
| 2016 | 55.1% | 35.6% | D+19.5 | D+8.9 |
| 2012 | 53.6% | 43.0% | D+10.6 | R+4.6 |
| 2008 | 56.3% | 41.0% | D+15.3 | D+13.9 |
| 2004 | 49.9% | 48.4% | D+1.4 | D+5.4 |
| 2000 | 44.7% | 48.6% | R+3.9 | R+4.1 |
| 1996 | 44.2% | 44.0% | D+0.2 | R+5.7 |
| 1992 | 40.9% | 35.1% | D+5.8 | D+16.8 |
| 1988 | 43.8% | 54.8% | R+11.0 | D+16.4 |
| 1984 | 35.7% | 63.1% | R+27.4 | R+3.7 |
| 1980 | 30.8% | 54.5% | R+23.7 | R+18.7 |
| 1976 | 45.9% | 50.9% | R+5.0 | D+9.0 |
| 1972 | 41.4% | 55.4% | R+14.1 | R+1.8 |
| 1968 | 40.7% | 52.9% | R+12.3 | R+26.6 |
| 1964 | 57.1% | 42.8% | D+14.3 | D+26.4 |
| 1960 | 43.7% | 55.9% | R+12.1 | D+13.1 |
| 1956 | 37.2% | 62.3% | R+25.2 | D+7.6 |
| 1952 | 33.3% | 66.1% | R+32.8 | R+15.8 |
| 1948 | 39.5% | 56.5% | R+17.0 | — |
What defines SantaBarbra-SanMar-SanLuOb?
It has a racially mixed, moderately educated electorate — the suburban swing demographic that decides close elections.
Constituent Counties
Similar media markets
Nearest neighbors matched on the same place-page feature set used across the dossier system.
San Diego
Educated rural democratic
Monterey-Salinas
Educated rural democratic
Tucson (Sierra Vista)
Educated rural competitive
Springfield-Holyoke
Educated rural competitive
Austin
Educated rural democratic
Los Angeles
Educated rural democratic
San Francisco-Oakland-San Jose
Educated rural democratic
Las Vegas
Educated rural democratic
Counties in SantaBarbra-SanMar-SanLuOb
2024 presidential results across the counties that make up this geography.
Sort:
| County | Pop. | Margin | Dem | Rep | Total | Share |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Santa Barbara | 444K | D+26.7 | 114,149 | 64,870 | 184,715 | 55.1% |
| San Luis Obispo | 282K | D+10.9 | 81,314 | 64,932 | 150,766 | 44.9% |
2 countiesTotal votes: 335,481
Ask the Historian
Explore SantaBarbra-SanMar-SanLuOb's political evolution with the Historian
Key Insights
High-confidence patterns distilled from this geography's election history.
- Has voted Democratic in the last 5 presidential elections
- Turnout decreased by 4.6 percentage points since the previous presidential election
- Swung 4.1 points toward Republican between 2020 and 2024
Who Lives Here
A race-first Census view with ancestry expansion where source coverage is strong enough to support detail.
Census race profile
Major Census race and ethnicity groups shown as a share of total population.
| Group | Local | National |
|---|---|---|
▶White (Non-Hispanic)(13) | 49.9% | 57.4% |
▶Hispanic / Latino(18) | 39.2% | 19.3% |
▶Asian(6) | 4.7% | 6.0% |
Multiracial / Other | 3.0% | 4.0% |
▶Native American / Alaska Native(5) | 1.6% | 0.9% |
▶Black / African American(9) | 1.5% | 12.2% |
▶Middle Eastern / North African(11) | 1.0% | 0.9% |
▶Native Hawaiian / Pacific Islander(3) | 0.1% | 0.2% |
Method notes
Religious Adherents
Population that are religious adherents:
43.7%
Catholic-Evangelical edge: +43.7pp (vs national 4.5pp). A strongly Catholic-leaning religious profile, which nationally correlates with Democratic-leaning urban and suburban communities.
| Tradition | % Pop | % Adherents | US Pop | US Adherents |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 28.2% | 64.4% | — | — | |
| 7.1% | 16.3% | — | — | |
| 5.9% | 13.5% | — | — | |
LDS (Mormon) | 1.8% | 4.2% | — | — |
| 1.6% | 3.7% | — | — | |
| 0.7% | 1.6% | — | — | |
| 0.2% | 0.5% | — | — | |
Non-religiousPopulation | 56.3% | — | — | — |
Who lives in the SantaBarbra-SanMar-SanLuOb media market? 725,256 residents across 2 counties.
Demographics
Read this geography's profile in three layers: local, state (where available), and national baseline.
Population & electorate
Scale, voting-age share, and this geography's footprint inside the national electorate.
Total population
725K
Share of U.S. population
0.22%
Voting-age population
74.3%
Economic profile
Income, attainment, and ownership indicators that often shape coalition structure and turnout behavior.
Median household income
$97,859
Poverty rate
14.0%
College degree
38.0%
Homeownership
56.5%
Community profile
Age structure, language use, and nativity signals that explain how this geography differs from state and nation.
Median age
36.9 yrs
Age 18–29
21.2%
Age 65+
18.8%
Foreign born
17.4%
Non-English at home
31.5%
English only
68.5%
Turnout in SantaBarbra-SanMar-SanLuOb
Estimated using 2020 Census voting-age population.
62.2%
-4.6pp
539,189
1988–2024
How competitive is SantaBarbra-SanMar-SanLuOb?
Safe DAvg margin: D+20.9 (last 3 elections)
2008
D+15.3
2012
D+10.6
2016
D+19.5
2020
D+23.6
2024
D+19.6
13.0pp
2
D+17.7
Do voters in SantaBarbra-SanMar-SanLuOb split their tickets?
Divergence between offices in the same election reveals persuadable voters.
Heavy splitting (0/100)
| Offices | Margin A | Margin B | Split |
|---|---|---|---|
| President vs Senate | D+19.6 | D+15.1 | 4.4pp |
Average divergence across office pairs: 26.2pp
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