Rockford
Latest: 2024
Leans Republican — 466K residents — 5 counties
Race & ancestry
| Group | % |
|---|---|
▶White (Non-Hispanic)(13) | 69.2% |
▶Hispanic / Latino(16) | 14.8% |
▶Black / African American(9) | 9.0% |
▶Asian(6) | 2.1% |
▶Middle Eastern / North African(10) | 0.4% |
▶Native American / Alaska Native(3) | 0.5% |
Multiracial / Other | 4.3% |
Religious adherence
| Tradition | % Pop | % Adherents |
|---|---|---|
| Catholic | 24.4% | 44.6% |
| Evangelical Protestant | 17.4% | 31.7% |
| Mainline Protestant | 8.3% | 15.1% |
| Other | 2.6% | 4.8% |
| Black Protestant | 1.9% | 3.4% |
| LDS (Mormon) | 0.6% | 1.1% |
| Orthodox Christian | 0.2% | 0.3% |
| Non-religious | 45.3% | — |
Presidential results
| Year | Result |
|---|---|
| 2024 | Trump+8.7 |
| 2020 | Trump+6.2 |
| 2016 | Trump+7.8 |
| 2012 | Obama+0.0 |
| 2008 | Obama+7.6 |
| 2004 | Bush+7.9 |
| 2000 | Bush+7.4 |
| 1996 | Dole+2.7 |
| 1992 | Clinton+0.5 |
Rockford is a media market that has a population of 465,654. In the 2024 presidential election, it voted Republican with a margin of R+8.7. Akashic Edge tracks 40 presidential elections here, dating back to 1868.
| Year | Dem % | Rep % | Margin | Swing |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2024 | 44.8% | 53.4% | R+8.7 | R+2.4 |
| 2020 | 45.4% | 51.6% | R+6.2 | D+1.6 |
| 2016 | 42.4% | 50.2% | R+7.8 | R+7.8 |
| 2012 | 48.9% | 48.9% | Even | R+7.6 |
| 2008 | 52.7% | 45.1% | D+7.6 | D+15.5 |
| 2004 | 45.7% | 53.6% | R+7.9 | R+0.5 |
| 2000 | 45.1% | 52.5% | R+7.4 | R+4.8 |
| 1996 | 43.7% | 46.3% | R+2.7 | R+3.1 |
| 1992 | 40.1% | 39.6% | D+0.5 | D+17.3 |
| 1988 | 41.3% | 58.1% | R+16.8 | D+9.9 |
| 1984 | 36.4% | 63.1% | R+26.7 | R+2.7 |
| 1980 | 28.6% | 52.6% | R+24.0 | R+9.1 |
| 1976 | 41.5% | 56.5% | R+15.0 | D+15.1 |
| 1972 | 34.9% | 64.9% | R+30.0 | R+9.5 |
| 1968 | 36.4% | 56.9% | R+20.6 | R+23.6 |
| 1964 | 51.5% | 48.5% | D+3.0 | D+23.9 |
| 1960 | 39.5% | 60.4% | R+20.9 | D+14.0 |
| 1956 | 32.6% | 67.4% | R+34.9 | R+5.3 |
| 1952 | 35.1% | 64.7% | R+29.6 | R+12.3 |
| 1948 | 40.9% | 58.2% | R+17.3 | — |
What defines Rockford?
Rockford has been won by both parties in the last 6 presidential elections (2D, 4R) — a genuine swing geography.
Constituent Counties
Similar media markets
Nearest neighbors matched on the same place-page feature set used across the dossier system.
Erie
Small-town rural republican 2
Alpena
Small-town rural republican 2
Bangor
Small-town rural republican 2
Presque Isle
Small-town rural republican 2
Wausau-Rhinelander
Small-town rural republican 2
Binghamton
Small-town rural republican 2
Flint-Saginaw-Bay City
Small-town rural republican 2
Medford-Klamath Falls
Small-town rural republican 2
Counties in Rockford
2024 presidential results across the counties that make up this geography.
Sort:
| County | Pop. | Margin | Dem | Rep | Total | Share |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Winnebago | 283K | D+0.6 | 59,942 | 59,257 | 121,347 | 58.2% |
| Boone | 53K | R+14.5 | 10,159 | 13,673 | 24,256 | 11.6% |
| Ogle | 51K | R+29.3 | 8,883 | 16,450 | 25,799 | 12.4% |
| Stephenson | 44K | R+19.4 | 8,278 | 12,347 | 20,995 | 10.1% |
| Lee | 34K | R+22.2 | 6,105 | 9,680 | 16,113 | 7.7% |
5 countiesTotal votes: 208,510
Ask the Historian
Explore Rockford's political evolution with the Historian
Key Insights
High-confidence patterns distilled from this geography's election history.
- The 2012 election was decided by just 0.0 points — razor-thin
- Won by both parties in recent history — Democrats most recently in 2012, Republicans in 2024
- College attainment is 24% — 9pp below the national average. Similar education levels correlate with Republican lean nationally
Who Lives Here
A race-first Census view with ancestry expansion where source coverage is strong enough to support detail.
Census race profile
Major Census race and ethnicity groups shown as a share of total population.
| Group | Rockford | National |
|---|---|---|
▶White (Non-Hispanic)(13) | 69.2% | 57.4% |
▶Hispanic / Latino(16) | 14.8% | 19.3% |
▶Black / African American(9) | 9.0% | 12.2% |
Multiracial / Other | 4.3% | 4.0% |
▶Asian(6) | 2.1% | 6.0% |
▶Native American / Alaska Native(3) | 0.5% | 0.9% |
▶Middle Eastern / North African(10) | 0.4% | 0.9% |
Method notes
Religious Adherents
Population that are religious adherents:
54.7%
Catholic-Evangelical edge: +8.4pp (vs national 4.5pp). A strongly Catholic-leaning religious profile, which nationally correlates with Democratic-leaning urban and suburban communities.
| Tradition | % Pop | % Adherents | US Pop | US Adherents |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 24.4% | 44.6% | — | — | |
| 17.4% | 31.7% | — | — | |
| 8.3% | 15.1% | — | — | |
| 2.6% | 4.8% | — | — | |
| 1.9% | 3.4% | — | — | |
LDS (Mormon) | 0.6% | 1.1% | — | — |
| 0.2% | 0.3% | — | — | |
Non-religiousPopulation | 45.3% | — | — | — |
Who lives in the Rockford media market? 465,654 residents across 5 counties.
Demographics
Read this geography's profile in three layers: local, state (where available), and national baseline.
24% of adults hold a bachelor's degree — 9pp below the national average. Places with similar education levels vote R+9 on average nationally.
Population & electorate
Scale, voting-age share, and this geography's footprint inside the national electorate.
Total population
466K
Share of U.S. population
0.14%
Voting-age population
75.3%
Economic profile
Income, attainment, and ownership indicators that often shape coalition structure and turnout behavior.
Median household income
$69,692
Poverty rate
13.7%
College degree
24.1%
Homeownership
69.6%
Community profile
Age structure, language use, and nativity signals that explain how this geography differs from state and nation.
Median age
40.7 yrs
Age 18–29
14.1%
Age 65+
19.2%
Foreign born
7.6%
Non-English at home
13.2%
English only
86.8%
Turnout in Rockford
Estimated using 2020 Census voting-age population.
59.4%
-3.1pp
350,732
1988–2024
How competitive is Rockford?
Lean RAvg margin: R+7.6 (last 3 elections)
2008
D+7.6
2012
D+0.0
2016
R+7.8
2020
R+6.2
2024
R+8.7
16.3pp
2
R+3.0
Do voters in Rockford split their tickets?
Divergence between offices in the same election reveals persuadable voters.
Moderate splitting (51/100)
| Offices | Margin A | Margin B | Split |
|---|---|---|---|
| Senate vs Governor | R+8.3 | R+11.0 | 2.7pp |
Average divergence across office pairs: 9.9pp
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