Lubbock
Latest: 2024
Safe Republican — shifted 6.4pp toward Republicans in 2024 — 474K residents — 18 counties
Race & ancestry
| Group | % |
|---|---|
▶White (Non-Hispanic)(13) | 47.9% |
▶Hispanic / Latino(18) | 41.9% |
▶Black / African American(13) | 6.2% |
▶Asian(6) | 1.8% |
▶Middle Eastern / North African(6) | 0.2% |
▶Native American / Alaska Native(7) | 0.6% |
▶Native Hawaiian / Pacific Islander(3) | 0.1% |
Multiracial / Other | 1.5% |
Religious adherence
| Tradition | % Pop | % Adherents |
|---|---|---|
| Evangelical Protestant | 31.2% | 55.7% |
| Catholic | 15.9% | 28.3% |
| Mainline Protestant | 5.1% | 9.2% |
| Other | 2.5% | 4.4% |
| Black Protestant | 1.3% | 2.4% |
| LDS (Mormon) | 1.1% | 1.9% |
| Non-religious | 43.9% | — |
Presidential results
| Year | Result |
|---|---|
| 2024 | Trump+47.3 |
| 2020 | Trump+40.9 |
| 2016 | Trump+44.1 |
| 2012 | Romney+44.6 |
| 2008 | McCain+40.6 |
| 2004 | Bush+54.2 |
| 2000 | Bush+49.3 |
| 1996 | Dole+28.1 |
| 1992 | Bush+28.4 |
Lubbock is a media market that has a population of 473,739. In the 2024 presidential election, it voted Republican with a margin of R+47.3. Akashic Edge tracks 35 presidential elections here, dating back to 1888.
| Year | Dem % | Rep % | Margin | Swing |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2024 | 25.9% | 73.2% | R+47.3 | R+6.4 |
| 2020 | 28.8% | 69.8% | R+40.9 | D+3.2 |
| 2016 | 25.6% | 69.7% | R+44.1 | D+0.5 |
| 2012 | 27.0% | 71.6% | R+44.6 | R+4.0 |
| 2008 | 29.3% | 69.9% | R+40.6 | D+13.6 |
| 2004 | 22.7% | 76.8% | R+54.2 | R+4.9 |
| 2000 | 24.6% | 73.9% | R+49.3 | R+21.2 |
| 1996 | 32.6% | 60.8% | R+28.1 | D+0.3 |
| 1992 | 28.5% | 57.0% | R+28.4 | D+1.4 |
| 1988 | 34.9% | 64.7% | R+29.8 | D+14.9 |
| 1984 | 27.4% | 72.2% | R+44.7 | R+10.7 |
| 1980 | 31.7% | 65.7% | R+34.0 | R+28.2 |
| 1976 | 46.8% | 52.6% | R+5.8 | D+41.6 |
| 1972 | 26.0% | 73.4% | R+47.4 | R+35.9 |
| 1968 | 34.0% | 45.5% | R+11.5 | R+36.7 |
| 1964 | 62.6% | 37.3% | D+25.2 | D+27.1 |
| 1960 | 48.7% | 50.5% | R+1.8 | R+11.4 |
| 1956 | 54.7% | 45.1% | D+9.6 | D+15.4 |
| 1952 | 47.0% | 52.8% | R+5.9 | R+71.5 |
| 1948 | 79.6% | 14.0% | D+65.6 | — |
What defines Lubbock?
It has a plurality-minority electorate (52% nonwhite) where demographic change is reshaping the political map.
Constituent Counties
Similar media markets
Nearest neighbors matched on the same place-page feature set used across the dossier system.
Counties in Lubbock
2024 presidential results across the counties that make up this geography.
Sort:
| County | Pop. | Margin | Dem | Rep | Total | Share |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Lubbock | 319K | R+39.5 | 37,148 | 86,547 | 125,038 | 71.3% |
| Hale | 32K | R+57.9 | 1,903 | 7,283 | 9,285 | 5.3% |
| Gaines | 22K | R+82.6 | 538 | 5,840 | 6,416 | 3.7% |
| Hockley | 21K | R+66.3 | 1,323 | 6,616 | 7,988 | 4.6% |
| Lamb | 13K | R+64.3 | 729 | 3,398 | 4,151 | 2.4% |
| Dawson | 12K | R+61.0 | 667 | 2,810 | 3,513 | 2.0% |
| Terry | 12K | R+65.2 | 587 | 2,815 | 3,420 | 1.9% |
| Yoakum | 8K | R+70.9 | 342 | 2,039 | 2,393 | 1.4% |
| Bailey | 7K | R+61.1 | 332 | 1,395 | 1,741 | 1.0% |
| Lynn | 6K | R+70.3 | 371 | 2,175 | 2,567 | 1.5% |
| Floyd | 5K | R+64.9 | 358 | 1,715 | 2,090 | 1.2% |
| Garza | 5K | R+72.6 | 213 | 1,374 | 1,599 | 0.9% |
| Crosby | 5K | R+51.3 | 451 | 1,416 | 1,880 | 1.1% |
| Cochran | 3K | R+65.7 | 148 | 735 | 893 | 0.5% |
| Dickens | 2K | R+70.3 | 146 | 844 | 993 | 0.6% |
| Motley | 1K | R+88.8 | 35 | 612 | 650 | 0.4% |
| Kent | 734 | R+76.4 | 50 | 390 | 445 | 0.3% |
| Borden | 713 | R+91.5 | 16 | 370 | 387 | 0.2% |
18 countiesTotal votes: 175,449
Ask the Historian
Explore Lubbock's political evolution with the Historian
Key Insights
High-confidence patterns distilled from this geography's election history.
- Has voted Republican in the last 5 presidential elections
- Latest election (2024) was a Republican landslide with a 47.3% margin
- Swung 6.4 points toward Republican between 2020 and 2024
Who Lives Here
A race-first Census view with ancestry expansion where source coverage is strong enough to support detail.
Census race profile
Major Census race and ethnicity groups shown as a share of total population.
| Group | Lubbock | National |
|---|---|---|
▶White (Non-Hispanic)(13) | 47.9% | 57.4% |
▶Hispanic / Latino(18) | 41.9% | 19.3% |
▶Black / African American(13) | 6.2% | 12.2% |
▶Asian(6) | 1.8% | 6.0% |
Multiracial / Other | 1.5% | 4.0% |
▶Native American / Alaska Native(7) | 0.6% | 0.9% |
▶Middle Eastern / North African(6) | 0.2% | 0.9% |
▶Native Hawaiian / Pacific Islander(3) | 0.1% | 0.2% |
Method notes
Religious Adherents
Population that are religious adherents:
56.1%
Catholic-Evangelical edge: -31.8pp (vs national 4.5pp). A strongly Evangelical-leaning religious profile, which nationally correlates with Republican-leaning rural and exurban communities.
| Tradition | % Pop | % Adherents | US Pop | US Adherents |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 31.2% | 55.7% | — | — | |
| 15.9% | 28.3% | — | — | |
| 5.1% | 9.2% | — | — | |
| 2.5% | 4.4% | — | — | |
| 1.3% | 2.4% | — | — | |
LDS (Mormon) | 1.1% | 1.9% | — | — |
Non-religiousPopulation | 43.9% | — | — | — |
Who lives in the Lubbock media market? 473,739 residents across 18 counties.
Demographics
Read this geography's profile in three layers: local, state (where available), and national baseline.
27% of adults hold a bachelor's degree — 6pp below the national average. Places with similar education levels vote R+3 on average nationally.
Population & electorate
Scale, voting-age share, and this geography's footprint inside the national electorate.
Total population
474K
Share of U.S. population
0.14%
Voting-age population
70.8%
Economic profile
Income, attainment, and ownership indicators that often shape coalition structure and turnout behavior.
Median household income
$62,854
Poverty rate
16.6%
College degree
27.5%
Homeownership
59.8%
Community profile
Age structure, language use, and nativity signals that explain how this geography differs from state and nation.
Median age
32.9 yrs
Age 18–29
21.3%
Age 65+
13.9%
Foreign born
8.4%
Non-English at home
26.2%
English only
73.8%
Turnout in Lubbock
Estimated using 2020 Census voting-age population.
52.3%
+1.0pp
335,644
1988–2024
How competitive is Lubbock?
Safe RAvg margin: R+44.1 (last 3 elections)
2008
R+40.6
2012
R+44.6
2016
R+44.1
2020
R+40.9
2024
R+47.3
6.7pp
0
R+43.5
Do voters in Lubbock split their tickets?
Divergence between offices in the same election reveals persuadable voters.
Moderate splitting (73/100)
| Offices | Margin A | Margin B | Split |
|---|---|---|---|
| President vs Senate | R+47.3 | R+44.7 | 2.6pp |
Average divergence across office pairs: 6.3pp
Located In
Lubbock sits inside these higher-level geographies.
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