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Bakersfield

Bakersfield

Latest: 2024↓ R+10.9 vs 2020

Safe Republican — shifted 10.9pp toward Republicans in 2024 — 915K residents — 1 counties

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  • TV HOMES

    222K

  • MARKET RANK

    #126

  • COUNTIES

    1

  • PRES MARGIN

    R+21.1

Place Story

What defines Bakersfield

Methodology

Constituent Counties

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Similarity Explorer

Similar media markets

Nearest neighbors matched on the same place-page feature set used across the dossier system.
8 visible matches
Constituent Geography

Counties in Bakersfield

2024 presidential results across the counties that make up this geography.
Sort:
CountyPop.MarginDemRepTotalShare
Kern915K
R+21.1
108,241167,879283,246100.0%
1 countiesTotal votes: 283,246
Historian Query

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Explore Bakersfield's political evolution with the Historian
Race & Ancestry

Who Lives Here

A race-first Census view with ancestry expansion where source coverage is strong enough to support detail.
BakersfieldCensus ACS 2024Ancestry detail available
Census race profile
Major Census race and ethnicity groups shown as a share of total population.
Expand rows for ancestry detail
Hispanic 56.5%White (Non-Hispanic) 29.6%Asian 5.3%Black 5.1%Multiracial 2.1%Native American 1.3%
GroupBakersfieldNational
▶Hispanic / Latino(18)
56.5%19.3%
▶White (Non-Hispanic)(13)
29.6%57.4%
▶Asian(6)
5.3%6.0%
▶Black / African American(10)
5.1%12.2%
Multiracial / Other
2.1%4.0%
▶Native American / Alaska Native(5)
1.3%0.9%
▶Middle Eastern / North African(8)
0.8%0.9%
▶Native Hawaiian / Pacific Islander(5)
0.2%0.2%
Method notes

Census treats race and Hispanic/Latino origin as separate questions. Race categories other than Hispanic reflect total populations (small Hispanic overlap in Black, Asian, AIAN, NHPI). “Multiracial / Other” is derived as a non-overlapping remainder.

Click rows to expand ancestry detail. Ancestry from ACS B04006, B03001, B02020, B02016. Totals may differ from race — individuals can report multiple ancestries.

Black / African American (estimated remainder) is derived as Black population share minus reported Sub-Saharan African and West Indian ancestry. It is shown as an estimated ancestry detail, not a standalone Census ancestry category.

MENA estimated from ancestry reporting — Census does not have a separate MENA race category. Not shown in bar (overlaps with other race groups).

Religious Adherents

Population that are religious adherents:
45.3%(414.3K people)
U.S. Religion Census 2020
Browse all religions

Catholic-Evangelical edge: +23.9pp (vs national 4.5pp). A strongly Catholic-leaning religious profile, which nationally correlates with Democratic-leaning urban and suburban communities.

Tradition% Pop% AdherentsUS PopUS Adherents
Catholic
25.8%57.1%——
Evangelical Protestant
13.0%28.7%——
Other
4.8%10.6%——
LDS (Mormon)
2.4%5.2%——
Black Protestant
1.0%2.3%——
Mainline Protestant
0.5%1.1%——
Orthodox Christian
0.1%0.2%——
Non-religiousPopulation
54.7%———
Click the chevron to expand denominations. Tradition and denomination rows label both share of total population and share of all religious adherents. Non-religious is shown as a share of total population only.
Explore Catholic adherence nationally

Who lives in the Bakersfield media market? 915,075 residents across 1 counties.

Demographic Comparison

Demographics

Read this geography's profile in three layers: local, state (where available), and national baseline.
Bakersfield vs National915K residents

19% of adults hold a bachelor's degree — 14pp below the national average. Places with similar education levels vote R+15 on average nationally.

Population & electorate

Scale, voting-age share, and this geography's footprint inside the national electorate.

Total population
Local vs state vs U.S.
915K
local
915KNational 334.9M
Share of U.S. population
Local vs state vs U.S.
0.27%
local
0.27%National 100%
Voting-age population
Local vs state vs U.S.
68.7%
local
68.7%National 75.7%
Economic profile

Income, attainment, and ownership indicators that often shape coalition structure and turnout behavior.

Median household income
Local vs state vs U.S.
$70,210
local
$70,210National $83,960
Poverty rate
Local vs state vs U.S.
19.1%
local
19.1%National 12.5%
College degree
Local vs state vs U.S.
18.8%
local
18.8%National 35.6%
Homeownership
Local vs state vs U.S.
60.1%
local
60.1%National 65.2%
Community profile

Age structure, language use, and nativity signals that explain how this geography differs from state and nation.

Median age
Local vs state vs U.S.
32.7 yrs
local
32.7 yrsNational 39.1 yrs
Age 18–29
Local vs state vs U.S.
17.3%
local
17.3%National 15.7%
Age 65+
Local vs state vs U.S.
11.9%
local
11.9%National 17.0%
Foreign born
Local vs state vs U.S.
20.2%
local
20.2%National 14.1%
Non-English at home
Local vs state vs U.S.
45.7%
local
45.7%National 22.2%
English only
Local vs state vs U.S.
54.3%
local
54.3%National 77.8%
Voter Turnout

Turnout in Bakersfield

Estimated using 2020 Census voting-age population.
2024 Turnout
45.1%
vs Previous
-3.5pp
Voting-Age Pop
628,295
History
1988–2024
Competitiveness

How competitive is Bakersfield?

Likely RAvg margin: R+14.6 (last 3 elections)
2008
R+17.7
2012
R+16.7
2016
R+12.7
2020
R+10.2
2024
R+21.1
Elasticity
10.9pp
margin range
Party Flips
0
last 30 years
5-Elec Avg
R+15.7
Ticket-Splitting

Do voters in Bakersfield split their tickets?

Divergence between offices in the same election reveals persuadable voters.
ConsistencyHeavy splitting (0/100)
2024 Office Comparisons
OfficesMargin AMargin BSplit
President vs SenateR+21.1R+22.11.0pp
Average divergence across office pairs: 35.1pp
Containing Geography

Located In

Bakersfield sits inside these higher-level geographies.
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