El Paso (Las Cruces)
Latest: 2024
Leans Democratic — shifted 17.3pp toward Republicans in 2024 — 1.1M residents — 4 counties
Race & ancestry
| Group | % |
|---|---|
▶White (Non-Hispanic)(13) | 14.3% |
▶Hispanic / Latino(18) | 79.6% |
▶Black / African American(11) | 3.0% |
▶Asian(6) | 1.3% |
▶Middle Eastern / North African(6) | 0.3% |
▶Native American / Alaska Native(6) | 1.0% |
▶Native Hawaiian / Pacific Islander(5) | 0.2% |
Multiracial / Other | 0.6% |
Religious adherence
| Tradition | % Pop | % Adherents |
|---|---|---|
| Catholic | 41.7% | 73.4% |
| Evangelical Protestant | 9.8% | 17.3% |
| Other | 3.9% | 6.9% |
| LDS (Mormon) | 1.4% | 2.5% |
| Mainline Protestant | 0.9% | 1.7% |
| Black Protestant | 0.4% | 0.7% |
| Non-religious | 43.2% | — |
Presidential results
| Year | Result |
|---|---|
| 2024 | Harris+13.5 |
| 2020 | Biden+30.9 |
| 2016 | Clinton+36.4 |
| 2012 | Obama+27.3 |
| 2008 | Obama+28.3 |
| 2004 | Kerry+10.2 |
| 2000 | Gore+15.0 |
| 1996 | Clinton+25.8 |
| 1992 | Clinton+13.4 |
El Paso (Las Cruces) is a media market that has a population of 1,100,643. In the 2024 presidential election, it voted Democratic with a margin of D+13.5. Akashic Edge tracks 39 presidential elections here, dating back to 1872.
| Year | Dem % | Rep % | Margin | Swing |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2024 | 56.0% | 42.5% | D+13.5 | R+17.3 |
| 2020 | 64.5% | 33.6% | D+30.9 | R+5.5 |
| 2016 | 64.7% | 28.3% | D+36.4 | D+9.1 |
| 2012 | 62.7% | 35.4% | D+27.3 | R+1.0 |
| 2008 | 63.6% | 35.3% | D+28.3 | D+18.1 |
| 2004 | 54.7% | 44.5% | D+10.2 | R+4.8 |
| 2000 | 56.1% | 41.2% | D+15.0 | R+10.8 |
| 1996 | 59.8% | 34.1% | D+25.8 | D+12.3 |
| 1992 | 48.8% | 35.4% | D+13.4 | D+10.2 |
| 1988 | 51.3% | 48.0% | D+3.2 | D+17.7 |
| 1984 | 42.5% | 57.0% | R+14.5 | R+0.6 |
| 1980 | 39.7% | 53.6% | R+13.9 | R+14.8 |
| 1976 | 49.8% | 48.9% | D+0.9 | D+22.2 |
| 1972 | 38.8% | 60.2% | R+21.3 | R+20.4 |
| 1968 | 45.7% | 46.6% | R+0.9 | R+25.0 |
| 1964 | 61.9% | 37.8% | D+24.1 | D+15.2 |
| 1960 | 54.4% | 45.5% | D+8.9 | D+20.6 |
| 1956 | 43.9% | 55.6% | R+11.7 | D+3.4 |
| 1952 | 42.4% | 57.5% | R+15.2 | R+54.1 |
| 1948 | 68.5% | 29.5% | D+39.0 | — |
What defines El Paso (Las Cruces)?
It has a majority-minority electorate where racial demographics are the primary driver of partisan lean.
Constituent Counties
Similar media markets
Nearest neighbors matched on the same place-page feature set used across the dossier system.
Laredo
Diverse rural competitive
Harlingen-Weslaco-Brownsville-McAllen
Diverse rural competitive
Yuma-El Centro
Diverse rural competitive
Corpus Christi
Rural Republican 2
Fresno-Visalia
Diverse rural competitive
San Antonio
Educated rural democratic
Bakersfield
Diverse rural competitive
Miami-Fort Lauderdale
Diverse rural competitive
Counties in El Paso (Las Cruces)
2024 presidential results across the counties that make up this geography.
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Ask the Historian
Explore El Paso (Las Cruces)'s political evolution with the Historian
Key Insights
High-confidence patterns distilled from this geography's election history.
- Has voted Democratic in the last 5 presidential elections
- Swung 17.3 points toward Republican between 2020 and 2024
- Highly elastic — margins have ranged 22.9 points across recent elections, suggesting a volatile electorate
Who Lives Here
A race-first Census view with ancestry expansion where source coverage is strong enough to support detail.
Census race profile
Major Census race and ethnicity groups shown as a share of total population.
| Group | El Paso (Las Cruces) | National |
|---|---|---|
▶Hispanic / Latino(18) | 79.6% | 19.3% |
▶White (Non-Hispanic)(13) | 14.3% | 57.4% |
▶Black / African American(11) | 3.0% | 12.2% |
▶Asian(6) | 1.3% | 6.0% |
▶Native American / Alaska Native(6) | 1.0% | 0.9% |
Multiracial / Other | 0.6% | 4.0% |
▶Middle Eastern / North African(6) | 0.3% | 0.9% |
▶Native Hawaiian / Pacific Islander(5) | 0.2% | 0.2% |
Method notes
Religious Adherents
Population that are religious adherents:
56.8%
Catholic-Evangelical edge: +51.6pp (vs national 4.5pp). A strongly Catholic-leaning religious profile, which nationally correlates with Democratic-leaning urban and suburban communities.
| Tradition | % Pop | % Adherents | US Pop | US Adherents |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 41.7% | 73.4% | — | — | |
| 9.8% | 17.3% | — | — | |
| 3.9% | 6.9% | — | — | |
LDS (Mormon) | 1.4% | 2.5% | — | — |
| 0.9% | 1.7% | — | — | |
| 0.4% | 0.7% | — | — | |
Non-religiousPopulation | 43.2% | — | — | — |
Who lives in the El Paso (Las Cruces) media market? 1,100,643 residents across 4 counties.
Demographics
Read this geography's profile in three layers: local, state (where available), and national baseline.
27% of adults hold a bachelor's degree — 6pp below the national average. Places with similar education levels vote R+3 on average nationally.
Population & electorate
Scale, voting-age share, and this geography's footprint inside the national electorate.
Total population
1.1M
Share of U.S. population
0.33%
Voting-age population
72.8%
Economic profile
Income, attainment, and ownership indicators that often shape coalition structure and turnout behavior.
Median household income
$59,129
Poverty rate
19.3%
College degree
27.1%
Homeownership
64.5%
Community profile
Age structure, language use, and nativity signals that explain how this geography differs from state and nation.
Median age
33.8 yrs
Age 18–29
19.3%
Age 65+
13.9%
Foreign born
21.4%
Non-English at home
63.3%
English only
36.7%
Turnout in El Paso (Las Cruces)
Estimated using 2020 Census voting-age population.
42.3%
-1.6pp
801,152
1988–2024
How competitive is El Paso (Las Cruces)?
Safe DAvg margin: D+26.9 (last 3 elections)
2008
D+28.3
2012
D+27.3
2016
D+36.4
2020
D+30.9
2024
D+13.5
22.9pp
0
D+27.3
Do voters in El Paso (Las Cruces) split their tickets?
Divergence between offices in the same election reveals persuadable voters.
Heavy splitting (49/100)
| Offices | Margin A | Margin B | Split |
|---|---|---|---|
| President vs Senate | D+13.5 | D+17.8 | 4.3pp |
Average divergence across office pairs: 10.1pp
Located In
El Paso (Las Cruces) sits inside these higher-level geographies.
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