Arcadia, FL
Safe Republican — shifted 10.9pp toward Republicans in 2024 — 35K residents — 1 counties
| Group | % |
|---|---|
▶White (Non-Hispanic)(13) | 54.9% |
▶Hispanic / Latino(13) | 30.1% |
▶Black / African American(5) | 12.5% |
▶Asian(2) | 0.1% |
▶Middle Eastern / North African(3) | 0.3% |
▶Native American / Alaska Native(2) | 0.4% |
Native Hawaiian / Pacific Islander | 0.1% |
Multiracial / Other | 1.9% |
| Tradition | % Pop | % Adherents |
|---|---|---|
| Evangelical Protestant | 16.8% | 51.8% |
| Catholic | 5.4% | 16.7% |
| Mainline Protestant | 4.1% | 12.6% |
| Black Protestant | 3.9% | 11.9% |
| Other | 2.3% | 7.0% |
| LDS (Mormon) | 1.1% | 3.4% |
| Non-religious | 67.6% | — |
| Year | Result |
|---|---|
| 2024 | Trump+42.9 |
| 2020 | Trump+32.0 |
| 2016 | Trump+27.7 |
| 2012 | Romney+14.3 |
| 2008 | McCain+12.3 |
| 2004 | Bush+16.9 |
| 2000 | Bush+12.0 |
| 1996 | Dole+0.7 |
| 1992 | Bush+5.7 |
Arcadia, FL is a metro area that has a population of 35,386. In the 2024 presidential election, it voted Republican with a margin of R+42.9. Akashic Edge tracks 35 presidential elections here, dating back to 1888.
| Year | Dem % | Rep % | Margin | Swing |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2024 | 28.2% | 71.2% | R+42.9 | R+10.9 |
| 2020 | 33.6% | 65.7% | R+32.0 | R+4.3 |
| 2016 | 35.0% | 62.7% | R+27.7 | R+13.4 |
| 2012 | 42.2% | 56.5% | R+14.3 | R+2.0 |
| 2008 | 43.1% | 55.4% | R+12.3 | D+4.7 |
| 2004 | 41.1% | 58.1% | R+16.9 | R+5.0 |
| 2000 | 42.5% | 54.5% | R+12.0 | R+11.3 |
| 1996 | 43.0% | 43.7% | R+0.7 | D+5.0 |
| 1992 | 35.6% | 41.3% | R+5.7 | D+26.2 |
| 1988 | 33.7% | 65.6% | R+31.9 | D+3.4 |
| 1984 | 32.3% | 67.6% | R+35.3 | R+25.1 |
| 1980 | 43.2% | 53.4% | R+10.2 | R+25.1 |
| 1976 | 56.3% | 41.5% | D+14.8 | D+70.1 |
| 1972 | 22.3% | 77.6% | R+55.2 | R+51.2 |
| 1968 | 22.9% | 26.9% | R+4.1 | D+1.5 |
| 1964 | 47.2% | 52.8% | R+5.6 | R+5.3 |
| 1960 | 49.9% | 50.1% | R+0.2 | R+3.4 |
| 1956 | 51.6% | 48.4% | D+3.2 | R+14.4 |
| 1952 | 58.8% | 41.2% | D+17.6 | R+10.7 |
| 1948 | 55.6% | 27.3% | D+28.2 | — |
What defines Arcadia, FL?
Arcadia, FL has been trending Republican — 29pp redder over the last 4 presidential cycles. It has a plurality-minority electorate (45% nonwhite) where demographic change is reshaping the political map.
Constituent Counties
Similar metro areas
Counties in Arcadia, FL
| County | Pop. | Margin | Dem | Rep | Total | Share |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| DeSoto | 35K | R+43.0 | 3,525 | 8,888 | 12,488 | 100.0% |
Ask the Historian
Key Insights
- Has voted Republican in the last 5 presidential elections
- Latest election (2024) was a Republican landslide with a 42.9% margin
- Swung 10.9 points toward Republican between 2020 and 2024
Who Lives Here
| Group | Arcadia, FL | National |
|---|---|---|
▶White (Non-Hispanic)(13) | 54.9% | 57.4% |
▶Hispanic / Latino(13) | 30.1% | 19.3% |
▶Black / African American(5) | 12.5% | 12.2% |
Multiracial / Other | 1.9% | 4.0% |
▶Native American / Alaska Native(2) | 0.4% | 0.9% |
▶Middle Eastern / North African(3) | 0.3% | 0.9% |
▶Asian(2) | 0.1% | 6.0% |
Native Hawaiian / Pacific Islander | 0.1% | 0.2% |
Religious Adherents
Catholic-Evangelical edge: -39.6pp (vs national 4.5pp). A strongly Evangelical-leaning religious profile, which nationally correlates with Republican-leaning rural and exurban communities.
| Tradition | % Pop | % Adherents | US Pop | US Adherents |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 16.8% | 51.8% | — | — | |
| 5.4% | 16.7% | — | — | |
| 4.1% | 12.6% | — | — | |
| 3.9% | 11.9% | — | — | |
| 2.3% | 7.0% | — | — | |
LDS (Mormon) | 1.1% | 3.4% | — | — |
Non-religiousPopulation | 67.6% | — | — | — |
Who lives in the Arcadia, FL metro area? 35,386 residents across 1 counties.
Demographics
11% of adults hold a bachelor's degree — 22pp below the national average. Places with similar education levels vote R+35 on average nationally.
Scale, voting-age share, and this geography's footprint inside the national electorate.
Income, attainment, and ownership indicators that often shape coalition structure and turnout behavior.
Age structure, language use, and nativity signals that explain how this geography differs from state and nation.
Turnout in Arcadia, FL
How competitive is Arcadia, FL?
Do voters in Arcadia, FL split their tickets?
| Offices | Margin A | Margin B | Split |
|---|---|---|---|
| President vs Senate | R+42.9 | R+43.3 | 0.3pp |