Uvalde, TX
Safe Republican — shifted 13.1pp toward Republicans in 2024 — 25K residents — 1 counties
| Group | % |
|---|---|
▶White (Non-Hispanic)(13) | 25.6% |
▶Hispanic / Latino(5) | 70.9% |
▶Black / African American(2) | 0.3% |
▶Asian(5) | 1.7% |
▶Middle Eastern / North African(1) | 0.1% |
Native American / Alaska Native | 1.5% |
| Tradition | % Pop | % Adherents |
|---|---|---|
| Evangelical Protestant | 24.3% | 43.1% |
| Catholic | 21.2% | 37.7% |
| Mainline Protestant | 7.4% | 13.1% |
| Other | 2.8% | 5.1% |
| LDS (Mormon) | 1.3% | 2.3% |
| Black Protestant | 0.6% | 1.1% |
| Non-religious | 43.6% | — |
| Year | Result |
|---|---|
| 2024 | Trump+33.4 |
| 2020 | Trump+20.3 |
| 2016 | Trump+10.8 |
| 2012 | Romney+8.3 |
| 2008 | McCain+5.3 |
| 2004 | Bush+21.8 |
| 2000 | Bush+16.9 |
| 1996 | Dole+1.3 |
| 1992 | Bush+1.8 |
Uvalde, TX is a metro area that has a population of 24,881. In the 2024 presidential election, it voted Republican with a margin of R+33.4. Akashic Edge tracks 39 presidential elections here, dating back to 1872.
| Year | Dem % | Rep % | Margin | Swing |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2024 | 32.9% | 66.3% | R+33.4 | R+13.1 |
| 2020 | 39.4% | 59.7% | R+20.3 | R+9.5 |
| 2016 | 43.1% | 53.9% | R+10.8 | R+2.5 |
| 2012 | 45.3% | 53.7% | R+8.3 | R+3.1 |
| 2008 | 47.1% | 52.4% | R+5.3 | D+16.5 |
| 2004 | 38.9% | 60.7% | R+21.8 | R+5.0 |
| 2000 | 40.8% | 57.7% | R+16.9 | R+15.5 |
| 1996 | 46.3% | 47.6% | R+1.3 | D+0.5 |
| 1992 | 40.8% | 42.5% | R+1.8 | D+5.5 |
| 1988 | 46.0% | 53.3% | R+7.3 | D+24.4 |
| 1984 | 34.1% | 65.7% | R+31.7 | R+8.3 |
| 1980 | 37.7% | 61.1% | R+23.3 | R+8.6 |
| 1976 | 42.2% | 56.9% | R+14.8 | D+31.1 |
| 1972 | 27.0% | 72.9% | R+45.9 | R+35.1 |
| 1968 | 36.5% | 47.3% | R+10.8 | R+20.0 |
| 1964 | 54.5% | 45.4% | D+9.1 | D+34.2 |
| 1960 | 37.3% | 62.3% | R+25.1 | D+17.0 |
| 1956 | 28.7% | 70.7% | R+42.0 | R+3.1 |
| 1952 | 30.4% | 69.4% | R+38.9 | R+65.8 |
| 1948 | 60.9% | 34.0% | D+26.9 | — |
What defines Uvalde, TX?
Uvalde, TX has been trending Republican — 25pp redder over the last 4 presidential cycles. It has a majority-minority electorate where racial demographics are the primary driver of partisan lean.
Constituent Counties
Similar metro areas
Counties in Uvalde, TX
| County | Pop. | Margin | Dem | Rep | Total | Share |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Uvalde | 25K | R+33.4 | 3,218 | 6,482 | 9,772 | 100.0% |
Ask the Historian
Key Insights
- Has voted Republican in the last 5 presidential elections
- Latest election (2024) was a Republican landslide with a 33.4% margin
- Swung 13.1 points toward Republican between 2020 and 2024
Who Lives Here
| Group | Uvalde, TX | National |
|---|---|---|
▶Hispanic / Latino(5) | 70.9% | 19.3% |
▶White (Non-Hispanic)(13) | 25.6% | 57.4% |
▶Asian(5) | 1.7% | 6.0% |
Native American / Alaska Native | 1.5% | 0.9% |
▶Black / African American(2) | 0.3% | 12.2% |
▶Middle Eastern / North African(1) | 0.1% | 0.9% |
Religious Adherents
Catholic-Evangelical edge: -9.9pp (vs national 4.5pp). A strongly Evangelical-leaning religious profile, which nationally correlates with Republican-leaning rural and exurban communities.
| Tradition | % Pop | % Adherents | US Pop | US Adherents |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 24.3% | 43.1% | — | — | |
| 21.2% | 37.7% | — | — | |
| 7.4% | 13.1% | — | — | |
| 2.8% | 5.1% | — | — | |
LDS (Mormon) | 1.3% | 2.3% | — | — |
| 0.6% | 1.1% | — | — | |
Non-religiousPopulation | 43.6% | — | — | — |
Who lives in the Uvalde, TX metro area? 24,881 residents across 1 counties.
Demographics
20% of adults hold a bachelor's degree — 13pp below the national average. Places with similar education levels vote R+15 on average nationally.
Scale, voting-age share, and this geography's footprint inside the national electorate.
Income, attainment, and ownership indicators that often shape coalition structure and turnout behavior.
Age structure, language use, and nativity signals that explain how this geography differs from state and nation.
Turnout in Uvalde, TX
How competitive is Uvalde, TX?
Do voters in Uvalde, TX split their tickets?
| Offices | Margin A | Margin B | Split |
|---|---|---|---|
| President vs Senate | R+33.4 | R+24.5 | 8.9pp |