Bay City, TX
Safe Republican — shifted 6.0pp toward Republicans in 2024 — 36K residents — 1 counties
| Group | % |
|---|---|
▶White (Non-Hispanic)(12) | 41.4% |
▶Hispanic / Latino(10) | 43.7% |
▶Black / African American(5) | 10.3% |
▶Asian(5) | 1.8% |
▶Middle Eastern / North African(4) | 0.2% |
▶Native American / Alaska Native(2) | 0.4% |
Multiracial / Other | 2.4% |
| Tradition | % Pop | % Adherents |
|---|---|---|
| Evangelical Protestant | 26.6% | 47.9% |
| Catholic | 20.5% | 36.9% |
| Mainline Protestant | 4.6% | 8.2% |
| Other | 2.1% | 3.8% |
| Black Protestant | 1.8% | 3.2% |
| LDS (Mormon) | 0.9% | 1.6% |
| Non-religious | 44.4% | — |
| Year | Result |
|---|---|
| 2024 | Trump+50.5 |
| 2020 | Trump+44.5 |
| 2016 | Trump+39.9 |
| 2012 | Romney+33.5 |
| 2008 | McCain+27.4 |
| 2004 | Bush+30.1 |
| 2000 | Bush+23.2 |
| 1996 | Dole+4.0 |
| 1992 | Bush+4.3 |
Bay City, TX is a metro area that has a population of 36,329. In the 2024 presidential election, it voted Republican with a margin of R+50.5. Akashic Edge tracks 39 presidential elections here, dating back to 1872.
| Year | Dem % | Rep % | Margin | Swing |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2024 | 24.3% | 74.8% | R+50.5 | R+6.0 |
| 2020 | 27.2% | 71.7% | R+44.5 | R+4.6 |
| 2016 | 28.7% | 68.6% | R+39.9 | R+6.4 |
| 2012 | 32.8% | 66.3% | R+33.5 | R+6.0 |
| 2008 | 35.9% | 63.3% | R+27.4 | D+2.6 |
| 2004 | 34.8% | 64.8% | R+30.1 | R+6.9 |
| 2000 | 37.7% | 60.9% | R+23.2 | R+19.2 |
| 1996 | 43.0% | 47.0% | R+4.0 | D+0.3 |
| 1992 | 36.1% | 40.5% | R+4.3 | D+4.5 |
| 1988 | 45.2% | 54.0% | R+8.8 | D+14.9 |
| 1984 | 38.0% | 61.7% | R+23.7 | R+14.5 |
| 1980 | 44.2% | 53.4% | R+9.2 | R+24.0 |
| 1976 | 56.9% | 42.1% | D+14.8 | D+48.6 |
| 1972 | 33.0% | 66.8% | R+33.8 | R+39.7 |
| 1968 | 42.5% | 36.5% | D+5.9 | R+20.6 |
| 1964 | 63.2% | 36.7% | D+26.5 | D+26.6 |
| 1960 | 49.5% | 49.6% | R+0.1 | D+34.2 |
| 1956 | 32.2% | 66.5% | R+34.2 | R+1.8 |
| 1952 | 33.8% | 66.2% | R+32.5 | R+51.0 |
| 1948 | 49.3% | 30.8% | D+18.6 | — |
What defines Bay City, TX?
Bay City, TX has been trending Republican — 17pp redder over the last 4 presidential cycles. It has a plurality-minority electorate (59% nonwhite) where demographic change is reshaping the political map.
Constituent Counties
Similar metro areas
Counties in Bay City, TX
| County | Pop. | Margin | Dem | Rep | Total | Share |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Matagorda | 36K | R+50.5 | 3,231 | 9,957 | 13,312 | 100.0% |
Ask the Historian
Key Insights
- Has voted Republican in the last 5 presidential elections
- Latest election (2024) was a Republican landslide with a 50.5% margin
- Shifted 17.1 points toward Republicans over the last 4 elections
Who Lives Here
| Group | Bay City, TX | National |
|---|---|---|
▶Hispanic / Latino(10) | 43.7% | 19.3% |
▶White (Non-Hispanic)(12) | 41.4% | 57.4% |
▶Black / African American(5) | 10.3% | 12.2% |
Multiracial / Other | 2.4% | 4.0% |
▶Asian(5) | 1.8% | 6.0% |
▶Native American / Alaska Native(2) | 0.4% | 0.9% |
▶Middle Eastern / North African(4) | 0.2% | 0.9% |
Religious Adherents
Catholic-Evangelical edge: -15.4pp (vs national 4.5pp). A strongly Evangelical-leaning religious profile, which nationally correlates with Republican-leaning rural and exurban communities.
| Tradition | % Pop | % Adherents | US Pop | US Adherents |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 26.6% | 47.9% | — | — | |
| 20.5% | 36.9% | — | — | |
| 4.6% | 8.2% | — | — | |
| 2.1% | 3.8% | — | — | |
| 1.8% | 3.2% | — | — | |
LDS (Mormon) | 0.9% | 1.6% | — | — |
Non-religiousPopulation | 44.4% | — | — | — |
Who lives in the Bay City, TX metro area? 36,329 residents across 1 counties.
Demographics
22% of adults hold a bachelor's degree — 11pp below the national average. Places with similar education levels vote R+9 on average nationally.
Scale, voting-age share, and this geography's footprint inside the national electorate.
Income, attainment, and ownership indicators that often shape coalition structure and turnout behavior.
Age structure, language use, and nativity signals that explain how this geography differs from state and nation.
Turnout in Bay City, TX
How competitive is Bay City, TX?
Do voters in Bay City, TX split their tickets?
| Offices | Margin A | Margin B | Split |
|---|---|---|---|
| President vs Senate | R+50.5 | R+45.4 | 5.1pp |