Jamestown-Dunkirk, NY
Latest: 2024
Safe Republican — 126K residents — 1 counties
Race & ancestry
| Group | % |
|---|---|
▶White (Non-Hispanic)(13) | 83.7% |
▶Hispanic / Latino(19) | 9.6% |
▶Black / African American(9) | 2.6% |
▶Asian(6) | 0.7% |
▶Middle Eastern / North African(4) | 0.1% |
▶Native American / Alaska Native(3) | 0.3% |
▶Native Hawaiian / Pacific Islander(1) | 0.1% |
Multiracial / Other | 3.0% |
Religious adherence
| Tradition | % Pop | % Adherents |
|---|---|---|
| Catholic | 16.6% | 43.7% |
| Mainline Protestant | 9.4% | 24.7% |
| Evangelical Protestant | 9.2% | 24.3% |
| Other | 2.2% | 5.7% |
| Black Protestant | 0.5% | 1.3% |
| LDS (Mormon) | 0.5% | 1.3% |
| Orthodox Christian | 0.1% | 0.4% |
| Non-religious | 61.9% | — |
Presidential results
| Year | Result |
|---|---|
| 2024 | Trump+21.9 |
| 2020 | Trump+19.8 |
| 2016 | Trump+23.1 |
| 2012 | Romney+7.9 |
| 2008 | Obama+0.9 |
| 2004 | Bush+8.5 |
| 2000 | Bush+3.5 |
| 1996 | Clinton+9.9 |
| 1992 | Clinton+2.3 |
Jamestown-Dunkirk, NY is a metro area that has a population of 125,544. In the 2024 presidential election, it voted Republican with a margin of R+21.9. Akashic Edge tracks 40 presidential elections here, dating back to 1868.
| Year | Dem % | Rep % | Margin | Swing |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2024 | 38.9% | 60.8% | R+21.9 | R+2.1 |
| 2020 | 38.9% | 58.8% | R+19.8 | D+3.2 |
| 2016 | 35.2% | 58.3% | R+23.1 | R+15.2 |
| 2012 | 45.1% | 52.9% | R+7.9 | R+8.8 |
| 2008 | 49.5% | 48.6% | D+0.9 | D+9.4 |
| 2004 | 44.7% | 53.2% | R+8.5 | R+5.0 |
| 2000 | 46.0% | 49.5% | R+3.5 | R+13.4 |
| 1996 | 47.7% | 37.8% | D+9.9 | D+7.6 |
| 1992 | 36.1% | 33.8% | D+2.3 | D+12.3 |
| 1988 | 44.6% | 54.7% | R+10.1 | D+16.4 |
| 1984 | 36.6% | 63.1% | R+26.5 | R+14.2 |
| 1980 | 38.9% | 51.2% | R+12.3 | R+2.0 |
| 1976 | 44.7% | 54.9% | R+10.2 | D+6.9 |
| 1972 | 41.3% | 58.4% | R+17.2 | R+12.7 |
| 1968 | 44.4% | 48.8% | R+4.4 | R+42.8 |
| 1964 | 69.2% | 30.7% | D+38.4 | D+53.1 |
| 1960 | 42.6% | 57.3% | R+14.7 | D+22.4 |
| 1956 | 31.5% | 68.5% | R+37.1 | R+6.8 |
| 1952 | 33.8% | 64.1% | R+30.2 | R+11.3 |
| 1948 | 38.6% | 57.5% | R+18.9 | — |
What defines Jamestown-Dunkirk, NY?
Jamestown-Dunkirk, NY has been won by both parties in the last 6 presidential elections (1D, 5R) — a genuine swing geography.
Constituent Counties
Similar metro areas
Nearest neighbors matched on the same place-page feature set used across the dossier system.
Elmira, NY
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Richmond, IN
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Olean, NY
Small-town rural republican 3
Hot Springs, AR
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Roseburg, OR
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Corning, NY
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Auburn, NY
Small-town rural republican 2
Coos Bay-North Bend, OR
Small-town rural republican
Counties in Jamestown-Dunkirk, NY
2024 presidential results across the counties that make up this geography.
Sort:
| County | Pop. | Margin | Dem | Rep | Total | Share |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Chautauqua | 126K | R+21.9 | 22,085 | 34,528 | 56,751 | 100.0% |
1 countiesTotal votes: 56,751
Ask the Historian
Explore Jamestown-Dunkirk, NY's political evolution with the Historian
Key Insights
High-confidence patterns distilled from this geography's election history.
- Latest election (2024) was a Republican landslide with a 21.9% margin
- The 2008 election was decided by just 0.9 points — razor-thin
- Won by both parties in recent history — Democrats most recently in 2008, Republicans in 2024
Who Lives Here
A race-first Census view with ancestry expansion where source coverage is strong enough to support detail.
Census race profile
Major Census race and ethnicity groups shown as a share of total population.
| Group | Local | National |
|---|---|---|
▶White (Non-Hispanic)(13) | 83.7% | 57.4% |
▶Hispanic / Latino(19) | 9.6% | 19.3% |
Multiracial / Other | 3.0% | 4.0% |
▶Black / African American(9) | 2.6% | 12.2% |
▶Asian(6) | 0.7% | 6.0% |
▶Native American / Alaska Native(3) | 0.3% | 0.9% |
▶Middle Eastern / North African(4) | 0.1% | 0.9% |
▶Native Hawaiian / Pacific Islander(1) | 0.1% | 0.2% |
Method notes
Religious Adherents
Population that are religious adherents:
38.1%
Catholic-Evangelical edge: +15.0pp (vs national 4.5pp). A strongly Catholic-leaning religious profile, which nationally correlates with Democratic-leaning urban and suburban communities.
| Tradition | % Pop | % Adherents | US Pop | US Adherents |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 16.6% | 43.7% | — | — | |
| 9.4% | 24.7% | — | — | |
| 9.2% | 24.3% | — | — | |
| 2.2% | 5.7% | — | — | |
| 0.5% | 1.3% | — | — | |
LDS (Mormon) | 0.5% | 1.3% | — | — |
| 0.1% | 0.4% | — | — | |
Non-religiousPopulation | 61.9% | — | — | — |
Who lives in the Jamestown-Dunkirk, NY metro area? 125,544 residents across 1 counties.
Demographics
Read this geography's profile in three layers: local, state (where available), and national baseline.
25% of adults hold a bachelor's degree — 8pp below the national average. Places with similar education levels vote R+3 on average nationally.
Population & electorate
Scale, voting-age share, and this geography's footprint inside the national electorate.
Total population
126K
Share of U.S. population
0.04%
Voting-age population
75.5%
Economic profile
Income, attainment, and ownership indicators that often shape coalition structure and turnout behavior.
Median household income
$58,351
Poverty rate
17.4%
College degree
25.1%
Homeownership
68.8%
Community profile
Age structure, language use, and nativity signals that explain how this geography differs from state and nation.
Median age
42.9 yrs
Age 18–29
14.5%
Age 65+
21.4%
Foreign born
2.6%
Non-English at home
9.2%
English only
90.8%
Turnout in Jamestown-Dunkirk, NY
Estimated using 2020 Census voting-age population.
59.9%
-2.7pp
94,758
1988–2024
How competitive is Jamestown-Dunkirk, NY?
Safe RAvg margin: R+21.6 (last 3 elections)
2008
D+0.9
2012
R+7.9
2016
R+23.1
2020
R+19.8
2024
R+21.9
24.0pp
3
R+14.4
Do voters in Jamestown-Dunkirk, NY split their tickets?
Divergence between offices in the same election reveals persuadable voters.
Heavy splitting (0/100)
| Offices | Margin A | Margin B | Split |
|---|---|---|---|
| President vs Senate | R+21.9 | R+14.8 | 7.1pp |
Average divergence across office pairs: 20.0pp
Located In
Jamestown-Dunkirk, NY sits inside these higher-level geographies.
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