Lakeland-Winter Haven, FL
Latest: 2024
Safe Republican — shifted 6.3pp toward Republicans in 2024 — 791K residents — 1 counties
Race & ancestry
| Group | % |
|---|---|
▶White (Non-Hispanic)(13) | 50.8% |
▶Hispanic / Latino(20) | 29.2% |
▶Black / African American(15) | 14.6% |
▶Asian(6) | 1.8% |
▶Middle Eastern / North African(8) | 0.4% |
▶Native American / Alaska Native(1) | 0.4% |
Multiracial / Other | 3.2% |
Religious adherence
| Tradition | % Pop | % Adherents |
|---|---|---|
| Evangelical Protestant | 21.4% | 56.0% |
| Catholic | 8.7% | 22.8% |
| Black Protestant | 2.8% | 7.4% |
| Other | 2.7% | 7.0% |
| Mainline Protestant | 2.6% | 6.7% |
| LDS (Mormon) | 0.7% | 1.8% |
| Non-religious | 61.9% | — |
Presidential results
| Year | Result |
|---|---|
| 2024 | Trump+20.7 |
| 2020 | Trump+14.4 |
| 2016 | Trump+14.1 |
| 2012 | Romney+6.8 |
| 2008 | McCain+6.1 |
| 2004 | Bush+17.8 |
| 2000 | Bush+9.0 |
| 1996 | Dole+0.8 |
| 1992 | Bush+9.9 |
Lakeland-Winter Haven, FL is a metro area that has a population of 790,694. In the 2024 presidential election, it voted Republican with a margin of R+20.7. Akashic Edge tracks 39 presidential elections here, dating back to 1872.
| Year | Dem % | Rep % | Margin | Swing |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2024 | 39.2% | 59.9% | R+20.7 | R+6.3 |
| 2020 | 42.3% | 56.7% | R+14.4 | R+0.4 |
| 2016 | 41.3% | 55.4% | R+14.1 | R+7.3 |
| 2012 | 46.0% | 52.7% | R+6.8 | R+0.7 |
| 2008 | 46.3% | 52.5% | R+6.1 | D+11.7 |
| 2004 | 40.8% | 58.6% | R+17.8 | R+8.9 |
| 2000 | 44.6% | 53.6% | R+9.0 | R+8.1 |
| 1996 | 44.4% | 45.3% | R+0.8 | D+9.1 |
| 1992 | 35.3% | 45.2% | R+9.9 | D+23.5 |
| 1988 | 33.0% | 66.4% | R+33.5 | D+7.2 |
| 1984 | 29.7% | 70.3% | R+40.7 | R+25.3 |
| 1980 | 40.8% | 56.1% | R+15.4 | R+18.6 |
| 1976 | 51.0% | 47.7% | D+3.3 | D+60.5 |
| 1972 | 21.2% | 78.4% | R+57.2 | R+41.4 |
| 1968 | 21.1% | 37.0% | R+15.9 | R+5.8 |
| 1964 | 45.0% | 55.0% | R+10.0 | D+4.6 |
| 1960 | 42.7% | 57.3% | R+14.6 | R+2.7 |
| 1956 | 44.0% | 55.9% | R+11.9 | R+8.7 |
| 1952 | 48.4% | 51.6% | R+3.3 | R+22.2 |
| 1948 | 52.6% | 33.6% | D+19.0 | — |
What defines Lakeland-Winter Haven, FL?
It has a plurality-minority electorate (49% nonwhite) where demographic change is reshaping the political map.
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Counties in Lakeland-Winter Haven, FL
2024 presidential results across the counties that make up this geography.
Sort:
| County | Pop. | Margin | Dem | Rep | Total | Share |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Polk | 791K | R+20.7 | 136,879 | 209,044 | 348,931 | 100.0% |
1 countiesTotal votes: 348,931
Ask the Historian
Explore Lakeland-Winter Haven, FL's political evolution with the Historian
Key Insights
High-confidence patterns distilled from this geography's election history.
- Has voted Republican in the last 5 presidential elections
- Latest election (2024) was a Republican landslide with a 20.7% margin
- Shifted 13.9 points toward Republicans over the last 4 elections
Who Lives Here
A race-first Census view with ancestry expansion where source coverage is strong enough to support detail.
Census race profile
Major Census race and ethnicity groups shown as a share of total population.
| Group | Local | National |
|---|---|---|
▶White (Non-Hispanic)(13) | 50.8% | 57.4% |
▶Hispanic / Latino(20) | 29.2% | 19.3% |
▶Black / African American(15) | 14.6% | 12.2% |
Multiracial / Other | 3.2% | 4.0% |
▶Asian(6) | 1.8% | 6.0% |
▶Native American / Alaska Native(1) | 0.4% | 0.9% |
▶Middle Eastern / North African(8) | 0.4% | 0.9% |
Method notes
Religious Adherents
Population that are religious adherents:
38.1%
Catholic-Evangelical edge: -37.7pp (vs national 4.5pp). A strongly Evangelical-leaning religious profile, which nationally correlates with Republican-leaning rural and exurban communities.
| Tradition | % Pop | % Adherents | US Pop | US Adherents |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 21.4% | 56.0% | — | — | |
| 8.7% | 22.8% | — | — | |
| 2.8% | 7.4% | — | — | |
| 2.7% | 7.0% | — | — | |
| 2.6% | 6.7% | — | — | |
LDS (Mormon) | 0.7% | 1.8% | — | — |
Non-religiousPopulation | 61.9% | — | — | — |
Who lives in the Lakeland-Winter Haven, FL metro area? 790,694 residents across 1 counties.
Demographics
Read this geography's profile in three layers: local, state (where available), and national baseline.
23% of adults hold a bachelor's degree — 10pp below the national average. Places with similar education levels vote R+9 on average nationally.
Population & electorate
Scale, voting-age share, and this geography's footprint inside the national electorate.
Total population
791K
Share of U.S. population
0.24%
Voting-age population
76.0%
Economic profile
Income, attainment, and ownership indicators that often shape coalition structure and turnout behavior.
Median household income
$65,978
Poverty rate
14.5%
College degree
23.5%
Homeownership
70.5%
Community profile
Age structure, language use, and nativity signals that explain how this geography differs from state and nation.
Median age
39.5 yrs
Age 18–29
15.0%
Age 65+
19.5%
Foreign born
12.6%
Non-English at home
27.8%
English only
72.2%
Turnout in Lakeland-Winter Haven, FL
Estimated using 2020 Census voting-age population.
58.1%
+1.0pp
601,013
1988–2024
How competitive is Lakeland-Winter Haven, FL?
Safe RAvg margin: R+16.4 (last 3 elections)
2008
R+6.1
2012
R+6.8
2016
R+14.1
2020
R+14.4
2024
R+20.7
14.6pp
0
R+12.4
Do voters in Lakeland-Winter Haven, FL split their tickets?
Divergence between offices in the same election reveals persuadable voters.
Heavy splitting (49/100)
| Offices | Margin A | Margin B | Split |
|---|---|---|---|
| President vs Senate | R+20.7 | R+19.3 | 1.4pp |
Average divergence across office pairs: 10.1pp
Located In
Lakeland-Winter Haven, FL sits inside these higher-level geographies.
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