El Paso, TX
Latest: 2024
Leans Democratic — shifted 19.9pp toward Republicans in 2024 — 874K residents — 2 counties
Race & ancestry
| Group | % |
|---|---|
▶White (Non-Hispanic)(13) | 11.1% |
▶Hispanic / Latino(18) | 82.6% |
▶Black / African American(11) | 3.4% |
▶Asian(6) | 1.3% |
▶Middle Eastern / North African(6) | 0.3% |
▶Native American / Alaska Native(6) | 0.9% |
▶Native Hawaiian / Pacific Islander(4) | 0.2% |
Multiracial / Other | 0.5% |
Religious adherence
| Tradition | % Pop | % Adherents |
|---|---|---|
| Catholic | 47.6% | 76.8% |
| Evangelical Protestant | 9.8% | 15.9% |
| Other | 3.5% | 5.6% |
| LDS (Mormon) | 1.2% | 1.9% |
| Mainline Protestant | 0.6% | 0.9% |
| Black Protestant | 0.4% | 0.7% |
| Non-religious | 38.0% | — |
Presidential results
| Year | Result |
|---|---|
| 2024 | Harris+14.9 |
| 2020 | Biden+34.8 |
| 2016 | Clinton+42.5 |
| 2012 | Obama+32.1 |
| 2008 | Obama+32.3 |
| 2004 | Kerry+12.7 |
| 2000 | Gore+17.9 |
| 1996 | Clinton+30.1 |
| 1992 | Clinton+15.1 |
El Paso, TX is a metro area that has a population of 874,182. In the 2024 presidential election, it voted Democratic with a margin of D+14.9. Akashic Edge tracks 39 presidential elections here, dating back to 1872.
| Year | Dem % | Rep % | Margin | Swing |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2024 | 56.8% | 41.9% | D+14.9 | R+19.9 |
| 2020 | 66.5% | 31.7% | D+34.8 | R+7.7 |
| 2016 | 68.3% | 25.8% | D+42.5 | D+10.4 |
| 2012 | 65.3% | 33.2% | D+32.1 | R+0.2 |
| 2008 | 65.6% | 33.4% | D+32.3 | D+19.6 |
| 2004 | 56.0% | 43.3% | D+12.7 | R+5.2 |
| 2000 | 57.7% | 39.8% | D+17.9 | R+12.2 |
| 1996 | 62.2% | 32.2% | D+30.1 | D+15.0 |
| 1992 | 50.0% | 35.0% | D+15.1 | D+9.2 |
| 1988 | 52.7% | 46.8% | D+5.9 | D+18.0 |
| 1984 | 43.8% | 55.9% | R+12.1 | D+1.2 |
| 1980 | 40.3% | 53.5% | R+13.2 | R+16.4 |
| 1976 | 50.9% | 47.7% | D+3.2 | D+24.4 |
| 1972 | 39.0% | 60.2% | R+21.2 | R+24.6 |
| 1968 | 47.9% | 44.5% | D+3.4 | R+22.4 |
| 1964 | 62.7% | 37.0% | D+25.8 | D+16.2 |
| 1960 | 54.7% | 45.1% | D+9.5 | D+19.2 |
| 1956 | 44.9% | 54.5% | R+9.6 | D+6.0 |
| 1952 | 42.1% | 57.7% | R+15.6 | R+62.0 |
| 1948 | 71.9% | 25.5% | D+46.4 | — |
What defines El Paso, TX?
It has a majority-minority electorate where racial demographics are the primary driver of partisan lean.
Constituent Counties
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Counties in El Paso, TX
2024 presidential results across the counties that make up this geography.
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Ask the Historian
Explore El Paso, TX's political evolution with the Historian
Key Insights
High-confidence patterns distilled from this geography's election history.
- Has voted Democratic in the last 5 presidential elections
- Swung 19.9 points toward Republican between 2020 and 2024
- Highly elastic — margins have ranged 27.6 points across recent elections, suggesting a volatile electorate
Who Lives Here
A race-first Census view with ancestry expansion where source coverage is strong enough to support detail.
Census race profile
Major Census race and ethnicity groups shown as a share of total population.
| Group | El Paso, TX | National |
|---|---|---|
▶Hispanic / Latino(18) | 82.6% | 19.3% |
▶White (Non-Hispanic)(13) | 11.1% | 57.4% |
▶Black / African American(11) | 3.4% | 12.2% |
▶Asian(6) | 1.3% | 6.0% |
▶Native American / Alaska Native(6) | 0.9% | 0.9% |
Multiracial / Other | 0.5% | 4.0% |
▶Middle Eastern / North African(6) | 0.3% | 0.9% |
▶Native Hawaiian / Pacific Islander(4) | 0.2% | 0.2% |
Method notes
Religious Adherents
Population that are religious adherents:
62.0%
Catholic-Evangelical edge: +56.5pp (vs national 4.5pp). A strongly Catholic-leaning religious profile, which nationally correlates with Democratic-leaning urban and suburban communities.
| Tradition | % Pop | % Adherents | US Pop | US Adherents |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 47.6% | 76.8% | — | — | |
| 9.8% | 15.9% | — | — | |
| 3.5% | 5.6% | — | — | |
LDS (Mormon) | 1.2% | 1.9% | — | — |
| 0.6% | 0.9% | — | — | |
| 0.4% | 0.7% | — | — | |
Non-religiousPopulation | 38.0% | — | — | — |
Who lives in the El Paso, TX metro area? 874,182 residents across 2 counties.
Demographics
Read this geography's profile in three layers: local, state (where available), and national baseline.
26% of adults hold a bachelor's degree — 7pp below the national average. Places with similar education levels vote R+3 on average nationally.
Population & electorate
Scale, voting-age share, and this geography's footprint inside the national electorate.
Total population
874K
Share of U.S. population
0.26%
Voting-age population
72.4%
Economic profile
Income, attainment, and ownership indicators that often shape coalition structure and turnout behavior.
Median household income
$59,775
Poverty rate
18.7%
College degree
25.9%
Homeownership
64.3%
Community profile
Age structure, language use, and nativity signals that explain how this geography differs from state and nation.
Median age
33.6 yrs
Age 18–29
18.7%
Age 65+
13.1%
Foreign born
23.1%
Non-English at home
68.0%
English only
32.0%
Turnout in El Paso, TX
Estimated using 2020 Census voting-age population.
39.9%
-2.5pp
632,551
1988–2024
How competitive is El Paso, TX?
Safe DAvg margin: D+30.7 (last 3 elections)
2008
D+32.3
2012
D+32.1
2016
D+42.5
2020
D+34.8
2024
D+14.9
27.6pp
0
D+31.3
Do voters in El Paso, TX split their tickets?
Divergence between offices in the same election reveals persuadable voters.
Heavy splitting (27/100)
| Offices | Margin A | Margin B | Split |
|---|---|---|---|
| President vs Senate | D+14.9 | D+19.7 | 4.8pp |
Average divergence across office pairs: 13.4pp
Located In
El Paso, TX sits inside these higher-level geographies.
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