Baltimore
Latest: 2024
Safe Democratic — shifted 3.0pp toward Republicans in 2024 — 3.0M residents — 11 counties
Race & ancestry
| Group | % |
|---|---|
▶White (Non-Hispanic)(13) | 53.8% |
▶Hispanic / Latino(20) | 8.1% |
▶Black / African American(16) | 27.6% |
▶Asian(6) | 5.7% |
▶Middle Eastern / North African(10) | 0.8% |
▶Native American / Alaska Native(3) | 0.4% |
Multiracial / Other | 4.5% |
Religious adherence
| Tradition | % Pop | % Adherents |
|---|---|---|
| Catholic | 12.2% | 31.2% |
| Evangelical Protestant | 10.6% | 27.2% |
| Other | 6.4% | 16.4% |
| Mainline Protestant | 6.2% | 15.8% |
| Black Protestant | 3.2% | 8.3% |
| LDS (Mormon) | 0.6% | 1.4% |
| Orthodox Christian | 0.4% | 1.1% |
| Non-religious | 61.0% | — |
Presidential results
| Year | Result |
|---|---|
| 2024 | Harris+20.2 |
| 2020 | Biden+23.2 |
| 2016 | Clinton+15.4 |
| 2012 | Obama+15.9 |
| 2008 | Obama+14.9 |
| 2004 | Kerry+4.1 |
| 2000 | Gore+9.8 |
| 1996 | Clinton+11.1 |
| 1992 | Clinton+12.0 |
Baltimore is a media market that has a population of 3,045,328. In the 2024 presidential election, it voted Democratic with a margin of D+20.2. Akashic Edge tracks 40 presidential elections here, dating back to 1868.
| Year | Dem % | Rep % | Margin | Swing |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2024 | 58.4% | 38.2% | D+20.2 | R+3.0 |
| 2020 | 60.3% | 37.1% | D+23.2 | D+7.8 |
| 2016 | 55.3% | 39.9% | D+15.4 | R+0.5 |
| 2012 | 56.7% | 40.8% | D+15.9 | D+1.0 |
| 2008 | 56.5% | 41.6% | D+14.9 | D+10.8 |
| 2004 | 51.4% | 47.3% | D+4.1 | R+5.7 |
| 2000 | 53.2% | 43.4% | D+9.8 | R+1.3 |
| 1996 | 51.3% | 40.2% | D+11.1 | R+0.9 |
| 1992 | 48.1% | 36.2% | D+12.0 | D+16.1 |
| 1988 | 47.6% | 51.7% | R+4.2 | D+2.1 |
| 1984 | 46.6% | 52.9% | R+6.3 | R+15.4 |
| 1980 | 50.6% | 41.4% | D+9.2 | D+2.4 |
| 1976 | 53.4% | 46.6% | D+6.7 | D+31.7 |
| 1972 | 36.8% | 61.7% | R+24.9 | R+29.9 |
| 1968 | 45.6% | 40.7% | D+4.9 | R+29.1 |
| 1964 | 67.0% | 33.0% | D+34.1 | D+23.6 |
| 1960 | 55.2% | 44.8% | D+10.4 | D+32.3 |
| 1956 | 39.1% | 60.9% | R+21.9 | R+13.9 |
| 1952 | 45.5% | 53.5% | R+8.0 | R+12.6 |
| 1948 | 50.8% | 46.3% | D+4.5 | — |
What defines Baltimore?
It has a racially mixed, moderately educated electorate — the suburban swing demographic that decides close elections.
Constituent Counties
Similar media markets
Nearest neighbors matched on the same place-page feature set used across the dossier system.
Richmond-Petersburg
Educated rural competitive
Norfolk-Portsmouth-Newport News
Educated rural competitive
Detroit
Educated rural competitive
Seattle-Tacoma
Educated rural democratic
Raleigh-Durham (Fayetteville)
Educated rural competitive
Boston (Manchester)
Educated rural democratic
Philadelphia
Educated rural competitive
Rochester, NY
Educated rural competitive
Counties in Baltimore
2024 presidential results across the counties that make up this geography.
Sort:
| County | Pop. | Margin | Dem | Rep | Total | Share |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Baltimore | 851K | D+24.3 | 249,958 | 149,560 | 412,915 | 27.1% |
| Anne Arundel | 598K | D+13.8 | 171,945 | 128,892 | 311,572 | 20.4% |
| Baltimore City | 573K | D+72.4 | 195,109 | 27,984 | 230,754 | 15.1% |
| Howard | 336K | D+41.3 | 124,764 | 49,425 | 182,291 | 11.9% |
| Harford | 264K | R+13.7 | 62,453 | 83,050 | 150,090 | 9.8% |
| Carroll | 175K | R+24.8 | 36,867 | 62,273 | 102,651 | 6.7% |
| Cecil | 105K | R+30.8 | 17,628 | 33,871 | 52,831 | 3.5% |
| Queen Anne'S | 52K | R+27.6 | 11,273 | 20,200 | 32,347 | 2.1% |
| Talbot | 38K | E | 11,119 | 11,125 | 22,830 | 1.5% |
| Caroline | 34K | R+37.9 | 4,860 | 11,053 | 16,330 | 1.1% |
| Kent | 19K | R+2.8 | 5,251 | 5,561 | 11,128 | 0.7% |
11 countiesTotal votes: 1,525,739
Ask the Historian
Explore Baltimore's political evolution with the Historian
Key Insights
High-confidence patterns distilled from this geography's election history.
- Has voted Democratic in the last 5 presidential elections
- Latest election (2024) was a Democratic landslide with a 20.2% margin
- College attainment is 43% — 10pp above the national average. Similar education levels correlate with Democratic lean nationally
Who Lives Here
A race-first Census view with ancestry expansion where source coverage is strong enough to support detail.
Census race profile
Major Census race and ethnicity groups shown as a share of total population.
| Group | Baltimore | National |
|---|---|---|
▶White (Non-Hispanic)(13) | 53.8% | 57.4% |
▶Black / African American(16) | 27.6% | 12.2% |
▶Hispanic / Latino(20) | 8.1% | 19.3% |
▶Asian(6) | 5.7% | 6.0% |
Multiracial / Other | 4.5% | 4.0% |
▶Middle Eastern / North African(10) | 0.8% | 0.9% |
▶Native American / Alaska Native(3) | 0.4% | 0.9% |
Method notes
Religious Adherents
Population that are religious adherents:
39.0%
| Tradition | % Pop | % Adherents | US Pop | US Adherents |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 12.2% | 31.2% | — | — | |
| 10.6% | 27.2% | — | — | |
| 6.4% | 16.4% | — | — | |
| 6.2% | 15.8% | — | — | |
| 3.2% | 8.3% | — | — | |
LDS (Mormon) | 0.6% | 1.4% | — | — |
| 0.4% | 1.1% | — | — | |
Non-religiousPopulation | 61.0% | — | — | — |
Who lives in the Baltimore media market? 3,045,328 residents across 11 counties.
Demographics
Read this geography's profile in three layers: local, state (where available), and national baseline.
43% of adults hold a bachelor's degree — 10pp above the national average. Places with similar education levels vote D+16 on average nationally.
Population & electorate
Scale, voting-age share, and this geography's footprint inside the national electorate.
Total population
3.0M
Share of U.S. population
0.91%
Voting-age population
75.9%
Economic profile
Income, attainment, and ownership indicators that often shape coalition structure and turnout behavior.
Median household income
$100,627
Poverty rate
9.8%
College degree
43.1%
Homeownership
67.4%
Community profile
Age structure, language use, and nativity signals that explain how this geography differs from state and nation.
Median age
39.4 yrs
Age 18–29
14.9%
Age 65+
17.0%
Foreign born
11.2%
Non-English at home
14.2%
English only
85.8%
Turnout in Baltimore
Estimated using 2020 Census voting-age population.
66.0%
+0.2pp
2,309,995
1988–2024
How competitive is Baltimore?
Safe DAvg margin: D+19.6 (last 3 elections)
2008
D+14.9
2012
D+15.9
2016
D+15.4
2020
D+23.2
2024
D+20.2
8.3pp
0
D+17.9
Do voters in Baltimore split their tickets?
Divergence between offices in the same election reveals persuadable voters.
Heavy splitting (26/100)
| Offices | Margin A | Margin B | Split |
|---|---|---|---|
| President vs Senate | D+20.2 | D+10.5 | 9.7pp |
Average divergence across office pairs: 13.5pp
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