Norfolk-Portsmouth-Newport News
Latest: 2024
Leans Democratic — shifted 3.4pp toward Republicans in 2024 — 2.0M residents — 28 counties
Race & ancestry
| Group | % |
|---|---|
▶White (Non-Hispanic)(13) | 53.2% |
▶Hispanic / Latino(19) | 7.8% |
▶Black / African American(15) | 29.7% |
▶Asian(6) | 3.7% |
▶Middle Eastern / North African(10) | 0.5% |
▶Native American / Alaska Native(2) | 0.3% |
▶Native Hawaiian / Pacific Islander(4) | 0.1% |
Multiracial / Other | 5.2% |
Religious adherence
| Tradition | % Pop | % Adherents |
|---|---|---|
| Evangelical Protestant | 21.8% | 48.8% |
| Catholic | 8.1% | 18.1% |
| Mainline Protestant | 7.2% | 16.2% |
| Black Protestant | 4.2% | 9.3% |
| Other | 3.1% | 7.0% |
| LDS (Mormon) | 0.7% | 1.6% |
| Orthodox Christian | 0.3% | 0.6% |
| Non-religious | 55.4% | — |
Presidential results
| Year | Result |
|---|---|
| 2024 | Harris+8.0 |
| 2020 | Biden+11.5 |
| 2016 | Clinton+6.6 |
| 2012 | Obama+10.5 |
| 2008 | Obama+10.7 |
| 2004 | Bush+6.4 |
| 2000 | Bush+1.6 |
| 1996 | Clinton+6.2 |
| 1992 | Bush+1.0 |
Norfolk-Portsmouth-Newport News is a media market that has a population of 2,001,471. In the 2024 presidential election, it voted Democratic with a margin of D+8.0. Akashic Edge tracks 40 presidential elections here, dating back to 1868.
| Year | Dem % | Rep % | Margin | Swing |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2024 | 53.4% | 45.4% | D+8.0 | R+3.4 |
| 2020 | 54.8% | 43.3% | D+11.5 | D+4.9 |
| 2016 | 50.6% | 44.0% | D+6.6 | R+4.0 |
| 2012 | 54.6% | 44.0% | D+10.5 | R+0.2 |
| 2008 | 54.9% | 44.2% | D+10.7 | D+17.1 |
| 2004 | 46.5% | 52.9% | R+6.4 | R+4.8 |
| 2000 | 48.1% | 49.7% | R+1.6 | R+7.8 |
| 1996 | 49.2% | 43.0% | D+6.2 | D+7.2 |
| 1992 | 41.8% | 42.7% | R+1.0 | D+15.2 |
| 1988 | 41.5% | 57.7% | R+16.2 | D+3.8 |
| 1984 | 39.8% | 59.7% | R+20.0 | R+19.4 |
| 1980 | 46.9% | 47.4% | R+0.5 | R+11.1 |
| 1976 | 53.7% | 43.1% | D+10.6 | D+43.6 |
| 1972 | 32.1% | 65.2% | R+33.0 | R+37.7 |
| 1968 | 36.1% | 31.4% | D+4.7 | R+16.8 |
| 1964 | 60.5% | 39.1% | D+21.5 | D+6.0 |
| 1960 | 57.5% | 42.0% | D+15.5 | D+15.6 |
| 1956 | 48.2% | 48.3% | R+0.1 | R+11.2 |
| 1952 | 55.4% | 44.3% | D+11.1 | R+22.6 |
| 1948 | 62.5% | 28.8% | D+33.7 | — |
What defines Norfolk-Portsmouth-Newport News?
Norfolk-Portsmouth-Newport News has been won by both parties in the last 6 presidential elections (5D, 1R) — a genuine swing geography. It has a plurality-minority electorate (47% nonwhite) where demographic change is reshaping the political map.
Constituent Counties
Similar media markets
Nearest neighbors matched on the same place-page feature set used across the dossier system.
Richmond-Petersburg
Educated rural competitive
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Educated rural competitive
Atlanta
Educated rural competitive
Baltimore
Educated rural competitive
Philadelphia
Educated rural competitive
Kansas City
Small-town rural republican 3
Washington, DC (Hagerstown)
Educated rural democratic
Charlotte
Small-town rural republican 3
Counties in Norfolk-Portsmouth-Newport News
2024 presidential results across the counties that make up this geography.
Sort:
| County | Pop. | Margin | Dem | Rep | Total | Share |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Virginia Beach City | 456K | D+2.6 | 115,412 | 109,375 | 227,770 | 23.1% |
| Chesapeake City | 253K | D+3.8 | 65,399 | 60,550 | 127,493 | 12.9% |
| Norfolk City | 234K | D+41.5 | 59,941 | 24,377 | 85,643 | 8.7% |
| Newport News City | 184K | D+28.8 | 48,169 | 26,385 | 75,629 | 7.7% |
| Hampton City | 138K | D+39.9 | 43,357 | 18,383 | 62,632 | 6.4% |
| Suffolk City | 99K | D+15.9 | 30,597 | 22,112 | 53,352 | 5.4% |
| Portsmouth City | 97K | D+38.6 | 28,306 | 12,370 | 41,252 | 4.2% |
| James City | 81K | D+6.2 | 26,742 | 23,575 | 50,892 | 5.2% |
| York | 71K | R+6.1 | 18,296 | 20,722 | 39,540 | 4.0% |
| Pasquotank | 41K | R+4.9 | 9,549 | 10,537 | 20,343 | 2.1% |
| Isle of Wight | 40K | R+19.8 | 9,779 | 14,659 | 24,672 | 2.5% |
| Gloucester | 40K | R+38.4 | 7,034 | 15,918 | 23,149 | 2.3% |
| Dare | 38K | R+18.7 | 10,074 | 14,792 | 25,196 | 2.6% |
| Accomack | 33K | R+13.3 | 7,374 | 9,659 | 17,144 | 1.7% |
| Currituck | 31K | R+47.8 | 4,604 | 13,235 | 18,053 | 1.8% |
| Hertford | 20K | D+26.7 | 6,191 | 3,561 | 9,843 | 1.0% |
| Southampton | 18K | R+25.5 | 3,626 | 6,133 | 9,831 | 1.0% |
| Northampton | 17K | D+14.5 | 5,239 | 3,905 | 9,215 | 0.9% |
| Williamsburg City | 16K | D+44.5 | 5,613 | 2,119 | 7,851 | 0.8% |
| Chowan | 14K | R+22.4 | 2,895 | 4,587 | 7,552 | 0.8% |
| Perquimans | 13K | R+39.3 | 2,269 | 5,278 | 7,666 | 0.8% |
| Poquoson City | 13K | R+45.9 | 2,119 | 5,800 | 8,024 | 0.8% |
| Northampton | 12K | D+6.2 | 3,603 | 3,183 | 6,832 | 0.7% |
| Camden | 11K | R+50.7 | 1,522 | 4,716 | 6,304 | 0.6% |
| Gates | 10K | R+21.6 | 2,268 | 3,538 | 5,868 | 0.6% |
| Mathews | 9K | R+39.3 | 1,774 | 4,106 | 5,929 | 0.6% |
| Franklin City | 8K | D+22.8 | 2,359 | 1,476 | 3,876 | 0.4% |
| Surry | 7K | R+0.7 | 2,176 | 2,205 | 4,429 | 0.4% |
28 countiesTotal votes: 985,980
Ask the Historian
Explore Norfolk-Portsmouth-Newport News's political evolution with the Historian
Key Insights
High-confidence patterns distilled from this geography's election history.
- Has voted Democratic in the last 5 presidential elections
- Split-ticket voting in 2024: Different parties won President and Governor
- Won by both parties in recent history — Democrats most recently in 2024, Republicans in 2004
Who Lives Here
A race-first Census view with ancestry expansion where source coverage is strong enough to support detail.
Census race profile
Major Census race and ethnicity groups shown as a share of total population.
| Group | Local | National |
|---|---|---|
▶White (Non-Hispanic)(13) | 53.2% | 57.4% |
▶Black / African American(15) | 29.7% | 12.2% |
▶Hispanic / Latino(19) | 7.8% | 19.3% |
Multiracial / Other | 5.2% | 4.0% |
▶Asian(6) | 3.7% | 6.0% |
▶Middle Eastern / North African(10) | 0.5% | 0.9% |
▶Native American / Alaska Native(2) | 0.3% | 0.9% |
▶Native Hawaiian / Pacific Islander(4) | 0.1% | 0.2% |
Method notes
Religious Adherents
Population that are religious adherents:
44.6%
Catholic-Evangelical edge: -35.1pp (vs national 4.5pp). A strongly Evangelical-leaning religious profile, which nationally correlates with Republican-leaning rural and exurban communities.
| Tradition | % Pop | % Adherents | US Pop | US Adherents |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 21.8% | 48.8% | — | — | |
| 8.1% | 18.1% | — | — | |
| 7.2% | 16.2% | — | — | |
| 4.2% | 9.3% | — | — | |
| 3.1% | 7.0% | — | — | |
LDS (Mormon) | 0.7% | 1.6% | — | — |
| 0.3% | 0.6% | — | — | |
Non-religiousPopulation | 55.4% | — | — | — |
Who lives in the Norfolk-Portsmouth-Newport News media market? 2,001,471 residents across 28 counties.
Demographics
Read this geography's profile in three layers: local, state (where available), and national baseline.
Population & electorate
Scale, voting-age share, and this geography's footprint inside the national electorate.
Total population
2.0M
Share of U.S. population
0.60%
Voting-age population
75.2%
Economic profile
Income, attainment, and ownership indicators that often shape coalition structure and turnout behavior.
Median household income
$82,245
Poverty rate
11.2%
College degree
34.8%
Homeownership
64.3%
Community profile
Age structure, language use, and nativity signals that explain how this geography differs from state and nation.
Median age
38.6 yrs
Age 18–29
16.5%
Age 65+
17.0%
Foreign born
6.6%
Non-English at home
9.1%
English only
90.9%
Turnout in Norfolk-Portsmouth-Newport News
Estimated using 2020 Census voting-age population.
65.5%
-0.4pp
1,504,544
1988–2024
How competitive is Norfolk-Portsmouth-Newport News?
Lean DAvg margin: D+8.7 (last 3 elections)
2008
D+10.7
2012
D+10.5
2016
D+6.6
2020
D+11.5
2024
D+8.0
4.9pp
2
D+9.5
Do voters in Norfolk-Portsmouth-Newport News split their tickets?
Divergence between offices in the same election reveals persuadable voters.
Heavy splitting (16/100)
| Offices | Margin A | Margin B | Split |
|---|---|---|---|
| Senate vs Governor | D+14.0 | R+10.1 | 24.1pp |
| President vs Governor | D+8.0 | R+10.1 | 18.1pp |
| President vs Senate | D+8.0 | D+14.0 | 5.9pp |
Average divergence across office pairs: 14.9pp
Located In
Norfolk-Portsmouth-Newport News sits inside these higher-level geographies.
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