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South Bend-Elkhart

South Bend-Elkhart

Latest: 2024↓ R+3.2 vs 2020

Safe Republican — shifted 3.2pp toward Republicans in 2024 — 909K residents — 10 counties

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Race & ancestry
Group%
▶White (Non-Hispanic)(13)
75.3%
▶Hispanic / Latino(18)
11.0%
▶Black / African American(12)
7.4%
▶Asian(6)
1.6%
▶Middle Eastern / North African(10)
0.3%
▶Native American / Alaska Native(2)
0.4%
Multiracial / Other
4.2%
View full demographics →
Religious adherence
Tradition% Pop% Adherents
Evangelical Protestant20.1%49.3%
Catholic11.1%27.2%
Mainline Protestant4.6%11.3%
Black Protestant3.2%7.8%
Other1.7%4.1%
LDS (Mormon)0.5%1.3%
Orthodox Christian0.1%0.2%
Non-religious59.3%—
View full religion →
Presidential results
YearResult
2024Trump+21.6
2020Trump+18.4
2016Trump+21.8
2012Romney+14.5
2008McCain+0.1
2004Bush+20.9
2000Bush+17.6
1996Dole+7.4
1992Bush+7.5
View full election history →

South Bend-Elkhart is a media market that has a population of 908,629. In the 2024 presidential election, it voted Republican with a margin of R+21.6. Akashic Edge tracks 40 presidential elections here, dating back to 1868.

South Bend-Elkhart Presidential Election Results, 1948–2024
YearDem %Rep %MarginSwing
202438.4%60.0%R+21.6R+3.2
202039.9%58.3%R+18.4D+3.3
201636.1%57.9%R+21.8R+7.3
201241.9%56.3%R+14.5R+14.3
200849.2%49.3%R+0.1D+20.7
200439.2%60.0%R+20.9R+3.2
200040.4%58.0%R+17.6R+10.3
199640.8%48.2%R+7.4D+0.1
199236.2%43.7%R+7.5D+14.3
198838.9%60.7%R+21.8D+5.9
198435.8%63.6%R+27.8R+5.8
198035.4%57.4%R+22.0R+8.0
197642.4%56.4%R+14.0D+20.6
197232.2%66.8%R+34.6R+21.0
196837.3%50.9%R+13.6R+26.9
196456.4%43.1%D+13.3D+25.3
196043.8%55.8%R+12.0D+9.9
195638.8%60.7%R+21.9R+3.0
195239.9%58.9%R+18.9R+12.3
194845.6%52.3%R+6.7—
Political Identity

What defines South Bend-Elkhart?

South Bend-Elkhart voted overwhelmingly Republican in 2024. Akashic Edge tracks 40 presidential elections here, revealing how its political character has evolved over more than a century.

Constituent Counties

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Similarity Explorer

Similar media markets

Nearest neighbors matched on the same place-page feature set used across the dossier system.
8 visible matches
Constituent Geography

Counties in South Bend-Elkhart

2024 presidential results across the counties that make up this geography.
Sort:
CountyPop.MarginDemRepTotalShare
St. Joseph273K
D+1.5
55,21553,585110,82328.9%
Elkhart207K
R+32.4
23,08245,65269,76518.2%
Berrien153K
R+7.9
38,32344,97584,48822.1%
Kosciusko80K
R+52.2
7,99526,21334,8969.1%
Cass52K
R+33.9
9,05018,50527,8717.3%
Marshall46K
R+43.4
5,35613,83719,5595.1%
Lagrange41K
R+56.8
2,1628,07310,4112.7%
Starke23K
R+52.0
2,4367,88910,4782.7%
Fulton20K
R+51.2
2,0976,6338,8542.3%
Pulaski12K
R+53.6
1,2804,3725,7631.5%
10 countiesTotal votes: 382,908
Historian Query

Ask the Historian

Explore South Bend-Elkhart's political evolution with the Historian
Automated Readout

Key Insights

High-confidence patterns distilled from this geography's election history.
  • Has voted Republican in the last 5 presidential elections
  • Latest election (2024) was a Republican landslide with a 21.6% margin
  • The 2008 election was decided by just 0.1 points — razor-thin
Race & Ancestry

Who Lives Here

A race-first Census view with ancestry expansion where source coverage is strong enough to support detail.
South Bend-ElkhartCensus ACS 2024Ancestry detail available
Census race profile
Major Census race and ethnicity groups shown as a share of total population.
Expand rows for ancestry detail
White (Non-Hispanic) 75.3%Hispanic 11.0%Black 7.4%Multiracial 4.2%Asian 1.6%Native American 0.4%
GroupSouth Bend-ElkhartNational
▶White (Non-Hispanic)(13)
75.3%57.4%
▶Hispanic / Latino(18)
11.0%19.3%
▶Black / African American(12)
7.4%12.2%
Multiracial / Other
4.2%4.0%
▶Asian(6)
1.6%6.0%
▶Native American / Alaska Native(2)
0.4%0.9%
▶Middle Eastern / North African(10)
0.3%0.9%
Method notes

Census treats race and Hispanic/Latino origin as separate questions. Race categories other than Hispanic reflect total populations (small Hispanic overlap in Black, Asian, AIAN, NHPI). “Multiracial / Other” is derived as a non-overlapping remainder.

Click rows to expand ancestry detail. Ancestry from ACS B04006, B03001, B02020, B02016. Totals may differ from race — individuals can report multiple ancestries.

Black / African American (estimated remainder) is derived as Black population share minus reported Sub-Saharan African and West Indian ancestry. It is shown as an estimated ancestry detail, not a standalone Census ancestry category.

MENA estimated from ancestry reporting — Census does not have a separate MENA race category. Not shown in bar (overlaps with other race groups).

Religious Adherents

Population that are religious adherents:
40.7%(370.2K people)
U.S. Religion Census 2020
Browse all religions

Catholic-Evangelical edge: -26.6pp (vs national 4.5pp). A strongly Evangelical-leaning religious profile, which nationally correlates with Republican-leaning rural and exurban communities.

Tradition% Pop% AdherentsUS PopUS Adherents
Evangelical Protestant
20.1%49.3%——
Catholic
11.1%27.2%——
Mainline Protestant
4.6%11.3%——
Black Protestant
3.2%7.8%——
Other
1.7%4.1%——
LDS (Mormon)
0.5%1.3%——
Orthodox Christian
0.1%0.2%——
Non-religiousPopulation
59.3%———
Click the chevron to expand denominations. Tradition and denomination rows label both share of total population and share of all religious adherents. Non-religious is shown as a share of total population only.

Who lives in the South Bend-Elkhart media market? 908,629 residents across 10 counties.

Demographic Comparison

Demographics

Read this geography's profile in three layers: local, state (where available), and national baseline.
South Bend-Elkhart vs National909K residents

26% of adults hold a bachelor's degree — 7pp below the national average. Places with similar education levels vote R+3 on average nationally.

Population & electorate

Scale, voting-age share, and this geography's footprint inside the national electorate.

Total population
Local vs state vs U.S.
909K
local
909KNational 334.9M
Share of U.S. population
Local vs state vs U.S.
0.27%
local
0.27%National 100%
Voting-age population
Local vs state vs U.S.
73.6%
local
73.6%National 75.7%
Economic profile

Income, attainment, and ownership indicators that often shape coalition structure and turnout behavior.

Median household income
Local vs state vs U.S.
$68,586
local
$68,586National $83,960
Poverty rate
Local vs state vs U.S.
12.9%
local
12.9%National 12.5%
College degree
Local vs state vs U.S.
25.8%
local
25.8%National 35.6%
Homeownership
Local vs state vs U.S.
73.3%
local
73.3%National 65.2%
Community profile

Age structure, language use, and nativity signals that explain how this geography differs from state and nation.

Median age
Local vs state vs U.S.
38.5 yrs
local
38.5 yrsNational 39.1 yrs
Age 18–29
Local vs state vs U.S.
15.6%
local
15.6%National 15.7%
Age 65+
Local vs state vs U.S.
18.0%
local
18.0%National 17.0%
Foreign born
Local vs state vs U.S.
6.3%
local
6.3%National 14.1%
Non-English at home
Local vs state vs U.S.
14.4%
local
14.4%National 22.2%
English only
Local vs state vs U.S.
85.6%
local
85.6%National 77.8%
Voter Turnout

Turnout in South Bend-Elkhart

Estimated using 2020 Census voting-age population.
2024 Turnout
57.3%
vs Previous
-0.9pp
Voting-Age Pop
668,821
History
1988–2024
Competitiveness

How competitive is South Bend-Elkhart?

Safe RAvg margin: R+20.6 (last 3 elections)
2008
R+0.1
2012
R+14.5
2016
R+21.8
2020
R+18.4
2024
R+21.6
Elasticity
21.7pp
margin range
Party Flips
0
last 30 years
5-Elec Avg
R+15.3
Ticket-Splitting

Do voters in South Bend-Elkhart split their tickets?

Divergence between offices in the same election reveals persuadable voters.
ConsistencyHeavy splitting (16/100)
2024 Office Comparisons
OfficesMargin AMargin BSplit
Senate vs GovernorR+23.7R+19.93.8pp
President vs SenateR+21.6R+23.72.1pp
President vs GovernorR+21.6R+19.91.7pp
Average divergence across office pairs: 14.9pp
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