Buffalo-Cheektowaga, NY
Latest: 2024
Leans Democratic — shifted 5.2pp toward Republicans in 2024 — 1.2M residents — 2 counties
Race & ancestry
| Group | % |
|---|---|
▶White (Non-Hispanic)(13) | 74.1% |
▶Hispanic / Latino(18) | 6.0% |
▶Black / African American(15) | 11.4% |
▶Asian(6) | 4.2% |
▶Middle Eastern / North African(10) | 1.1% |
▶Native American / Alaska Native(1) | 0.4% |
Multiracial / Other | 3.8% |
Religious adherence
| Tradition | % Pop | % Adherents |
|---|---|---|
| Catholic | 43.5% | 67.3% |
| Evangelical Protestant | 7.2% | 11.1% |
| Mainline Protestant | 5.0% | 7.7% |
| Other | 4.9% | 7.5% |
| Black Protestant | 3.8% | 5.8% |
| Orthodox Christian | 0.4% | 0.6% |
| LDS (Mormon) | 0.4% | 0.6% |
| Non-religious | 35.3% | — |
Presidential results
| Year | Result |
|---|---|
| 2024 | Harris+5.1 |
| 2020 | Biden+10.3 |
| 2016 | Clinton+2.1 |
| 2012 | Obama+13.6 |
| 2008 | Obama+14.6 |
| 2004 | Kerry+12.4 |
| 2000 | Gore+16.8 |
| 1996 | Clinton+21.0 |
| 1992 | Clinton+13.1 |
Buffalo-Cheektowaga, NY is a metro area that has a population of 1,161,343. In the 2024 presidential election, it voted Democratic with a margin of D+5.1. Akashic Edge tracks 40 presidential elections here, dating back to 1868.
| Year | Dem % | Rep % | Margin | Swing |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2024 | 52.3% | 47.1% | D+5.1 | R+5.2 |
| 2020 | 54.3% | 43.9% | D+10.3 | D+8.2 |
| 2016 | 48.6% | 46.6% | D+2.1 | R+11.5 |
| 2012 | 55.9% | 42.3% | D+13.6 | R+1.0 |
| 2008 | 56.5% | 41.9% | D+14.6 | D+2.2 |
| 2004 | 55.1% | 42.7% | D+12.4 | R+4.4 |
| 2000 | 55.6% | 38.8% | D+16.8 | R+4.2 |
| 1996 | 53.8% | 32.8% | D+21.0 | D+7.9 |
| 1992 | 42.3% | 29.2% | D+13.1 | D+3.2 |
| 1988 | 54.6% | 44.7% | D+9.9 | D+9.0 |
| 1984 | 50.3% | 49.4% | D+0.9 | R+8.5 |
| 1980 | 50.4% | 41.0% | D+9.4 | D+8.2 |
| 1976 | 50.3% | 49.1% | D+1.2 | D+10.7 |
| 1972 | 45.1% | 54.6% | R+9.5 | R+23.6 |
| 1968 | 52.3% | 38.2% | D+14.2 | R+31.2 |
| 1964 | 72.6% | 27.2% | D+45.4 | D+34.1 |
| 1960 | 55.6% | 44.3% | D+11.3 | D+39.9 |
| 1956 | 35.7% | 64.3% | R+28.6 | R+12.8 |
| 1952 | 41.1% | 56.9% | R+15.8 | R+19.4 |
| 1948 | 50.0% | 46.3% | D+3.6 | — |
What defines Buffalo-Cheektowaga, NY?
It has a moderately diverse, middle-class electorate where education levels and suburban growth shape the partisan balance.
Constituent Counties
Similar metro areas
Nearest neighbors matched on the same place-page feature set used across the dossier system.
Syracuse, NY
Educated rural competitive 2
Albany-Schenectady-Troy, NY
Educated rural competitive 2
Rochester, NY
Educated rural competitive 2
Worcester, MA
Educated rural democratic
Charleston-North Charleston, SC
Educated rural competitive 2
Detroit-Warren-Dearborn, MI
Educated rural competitive 2
Baltimore-Columbia-Towson, MD
Educated rural competitive 2
Burlington-South Burlington, VT
Educated rural democratic
Counties in Buffalo-Cheektowaga, NY
2024 presidential results across the counties that make up this geography.
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Ask the Historian
Explore Buffalo-Cheektowaga, NY's political evolution with the Historian
Key Insights
High-confidence patterns distilled from this geography's election history.
- Has voted Democratic in the last 5 presidential elections
- Swung 5.2 points toward Republican between 2020 and 2024
- Closest recent contest: 2016 at just 2.1 points
Who Lives Here
A race-first Census view with ancestry expansion where source coverage is strong enough to support detail.
Census race profile
Major Census race and ethnicity groups shown as a share of total population.
| Group | Local | National |
|---|---|---|
▶White (Non-Hispanic)(13) | 74.1% | 57.4% |
▶Black / African American(15) | 11.4% | 12.2% |
▶Hispanic / Latino(18) | 6.0% | 19.3% |
▶Asian(6) | 4.2% | 6.0% |
Multiracial / Other | 3.8% | 4.0% |
▶Middle Eastern / North African(10) | 1.1% | 0.9% |
▶Native American / Alaska Native(1) | 0.4% | 0.9% |
Method notes
Religious Adherents
Population that are religious adherents:
64.7%
Catholic-Evangelical edge: +51.7pp (vs national 4.5pp). A strongly Catholic-leaning religious profile, which nationally correlates with Democratic-leaning urban and suburban communities.
| Tradition | % Pop | % Adherents | US Pop | US Adherents |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 43.5% | 67.3% | — | — | |
| 7.2% | 11.1% | — | — | |
| 5.0% | 7.7% | — | — | |
| 4.9% | 7.5% | — | — | |
| 3.8% | 5.8% | — | — | |
| 0.4% | 0.6% | — | — | |
LDS (Mormon) | 0.4% | 0.6% | — | — |
Non-religiousPopulation | 35.3% | — | — | — |
Who lives in the Buffalo-Cheektowaga, NY metro area? 1,161,343 residents across 2 counties.
Demographics
Read this geography's profile in three layers: local, state (where available), and national baseline.
Population & electorate
Scale, voting-age share, and this geography's footprint inside the national electorate.
Total population
1.2M
Share of U.S. population
0.35%
Voting-age population
77.3%
Economic profile
Income, attainment, and ownership indicators that often shape coalition structure and turnout behavior.
Median household income
$72,252
Poverty rate
13.8%
College degree
36.2%
Homeownership
66.8%
Community profile
Age structure, language use, and nativity signals that explain how this geography differs from state and nation.
Median age
40.9 yrs
Age 18–29
15.3%
Age 65+
19.5%
Foreign born
6.9%
Non-English at home
10.3%
English only
89.7%
Turnout in Buffalo-Cheektowaga, NY
Estimated using 2020 Census voting-age population.
62.3%
-2.0pp
897,575
1988–2024
How competitive is Buffalo-Cheektowaga, NY?
Lean DAvg margin: D+5.8 (last 3 elections)
2008
D+14.6
2012
D+13.6
2016
D+2.1
2020
D+10.3
2024
D+5.1
12.5pp
0
D+9.1
Do voters in Buffalo-Cheektowaga, NY split their tickets?
Divergence between offices in the same election reveals persuadable voters.
Heavy splitting (0/100)
| Offices | Margin A | Margin B | Split |
|---|---|---|---|
| President vs Senate | D+5.1 | D+10.3 | 5.2pp |
Average divergence across office pairs: 18.7pp
Located In
Buffalo-Cheektowaga, NY sits inside these higher-level geographies.
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