How did Hilo-Kailua, HI vote in the 2024 presidential election?

Hilo-Kailua, HI voted Democratic in 2024 with a margin of D+28.3. Kamala D Harris received 52,163 votes and Donald Trump received 28,748 out of 82,823 total votes cast, a 8.0-point shift toward Republicans from 2020.

What is Hilo-Kailua, HI's political history?

Hilo-Kailua, HI has 17 presidential elections on record, spanning 1960 to 2024. It has voted Democratic in every presidential election since 1988. The largest single-election swing was 63.2 points in 1964.

What are the demographics of Hilo-Kailua, HI?

Hilo-Kailua, HI has a population of 205,769 according to the 2020 Census. The racial composition is 29.9% non-Hispanic white, 11.7% Hispanic. About 31% of residents hold a bachelor's degree or higher. Median household income is $78,639.

Which places are most similar to Hilo-Kailua, HI?

Based on demographic and electoral similarity analysis, the three most similar metro areas to Hilo-Kailua, HI are Kapaa, HI, Kahului-Wailuku, HI, Urban Honolulu, HI. Similarity is computed using a vector embedding of demographic, economic, and electoral characteristics.

Hilo-Kailua, HI

Latest: 2024↓ R+8.0 vs 2020

Safe Democratic — shifted 8.0pp toward Republicans in 2024 — 206K residents — 1 counties

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POPULATION
206K
COUNTIES
1
PRES MARGIN
D+28.3
2024
TURNOUT
51.5%
MEDIAN INCOME
$79K

Place Story

What defines Hilo-Kailua, HI

Methodology

Reliably Democratic since 1988
- Safe D
- 10 straight D wins
Mobilization target, not persuasion target.
Biggest swing: D+63.2 in 1964
- 1960 → 1964
Volatile behavior — treat historical margins with caution.
Demographically distinctive: 30% non-Hispanic white (-27pp vs national)
- 30% non-Hispanic white (-27pp vs national)
Ticket-splitting: Senate ran 46.6pp ahead of Governor
- Divergence 46.6pp in 2006
Persuadable voters present — downballot races can run independent of presidential.
Catholic edge: 26pp over Evangelicals
- 46% Catholic / 21% Evangelical
Correlates nationally with Democratic-leaning behavior.

Constituent Counties

Open in Cartographer

Similarity Explorer

Similar metro areas

Nearest neighbors matched on the same place-page feature set used across the dossier system.

8 visible matches

Kapaa, HI

Diverse rural democratic

D+19.5

Similarity score98%

Kahului-Wailuku, HI

Diverse rural democratic

D+25.9

Similarity score98%

Urban Honolulu, HI

Diverse rural democratic

D+21.6

Similarity score95%

Vallejo, CA

Diverse rural democratic

D+23.0

Similarity score88%

Sacramento-Roseville-Folsom, CA

Diverse rural democratic

D+11.8

Similarity score84%

San Francisco-Oakland-Fremont, CA

Diverse rural democratic

D+52.0

Similarity score82%

Seattle-Tacoma-Bellevue, WA

Diverse rural democratic

D+35.5

Similarity score82%

Las Vegas-Henderson-North Las Vegas, NV

Diverse rural democratic

D+2.6

Similarity score81%

Constituent Geography

Counties in Hilo-Kailua, HI

2024 presidential results across the counties that make up this geography.

Sort:

County	Pop.	Margin	Dem	Rep	Total	Share
Hawaii	206K	D+28.3	52,163	28,748	82,823	100.0%

1 countiesTotal votes: 82,823

Historian Query

Ask the Historian

Explore Hilo-Kailua, HI's political evolution with the Historian

“How has the Hilo-Kailua, HI metro area voted in presidential elections?”

Race & Ancestry

Who Lives Here

A race-first Census view with ancestry expansion where source coverage is strong enough to support detail.

Hilo-Kailua, HICensus ACS 2024Ancestry detail available

Census race profile

Major Census race and ethnicity groups shown as a share of total population.

Expand rows for ancestry detail

White (Non-Hispanic) 29.9%Multiracial 23.8%Asian 20.8%Native Hawaiian 12.5%Hispanic 11.7%Black 0.8%Native American 0.4%

Group	Hilo-Kailua, HI	National
▶White (Non-Hispanic)(13)	29.9%	57.4%
Multiracial / Other	23.8%	4.0%
▶Asian(6)	20.8%	6.0%
▶Native Hawaiian / Pacific Islander(6)	12.5%	0.2%
▶Hispanic / Latino(16)	11.7%	19.3%
▶Black / African American(9)	0.8%	12.2%
▶Native American / Alaska Native(3)	0.4%	0.9%
▶Middle Eastern / North African(8)	0.4%	0.9%

Method notes

Census treats race and Hispanic/Latino origin as separate questions. Race categories other than Hispanic reflect total populations (small Hispanic overlap in Black, Asian, AIAN, NHPI). “Multiracial / Other” is derived as a non-overlapping remainder.

Click rows to expand ancestry detail. Ancestry from ACS B04006, B03001, B02020, B02016. Totals may differ from race — individuals can report multiple ancestries.

Black / African American (estimated remainder) is derived as Black population share minus reported Sub-Saharan African and West Indian ancestry. It is shown as an estimated ancestry detail, not a standalone Census ancestry category.

MENA estimated from ancestry reporting — Census does not have a separate MENA race category. Not shown in bar (overlaps with other race groups).

Religious Adherents

Population that are religious adherents:

40.8%(83.9K people)

U.S. Religion Census 2020

Browse all religions

Catholic-Evangelical edge: +21.1pp (vs national 4.5pp). A strongly Catholic-leaning religious profile, which nationally correlates with Democratic-leaning urban and suburban communities.

Tradition	% Pop	% Adherents	US Pop	US Adherents
Catholic	18.9%	46.2%	—	—
Other	11.5%	28.2%	—	—
Evangelical Protestant	8.4%	20.6%	—	—
LDS (Mormon)	5.0%	12.2%	—	—
Mainline Protestant	1.9%	4.6%	—	—
Black Protestant	0.1%	0.4%	—	—
Non-religiousPopulation	59.2%	—	—	—

Click the chevron to expand denominations. Tradition and denomination rows label both share of total population and share of all religious adherents. Non-religious is shown as a share of total population only.

Explore Catholic adherence nationally

Who lives in the Hilo-Kailua, HI metro area? 205,769 residents across 1 counties.

Demographic Comparison

Demographics

Read this geography's profile in three layers: local, state (where available), and national baseline.

Hilo-Kailua, HI vs National206K residents

Population & electorate

Scale, voting-age share, and this geography's footprint inside the national electorate.

Total population

Local vs state vs U.S.

206K

local

206KNational 334.9M

Share of U.S. population

Local vs state vs U.S.

0.06%

local

0.06%National 100%

Voting-age population

Local vs state vs U.S.

78.1%

local

78.1%National 75.7%

Economic profile

Income, attainment, and ownership indicators that often shape coalition structure and turnout behavior.

Median household income

Local vs state vs U.S.

$78,639

local

$78,639National $83,960

Poverty rate

Local vs state vs U.S.

14.9%

local

14.9%National 12.5%

College degree

Local vs state vs U.S.

31.4%

local

31.4%National 35.6%

Homeownership

Local vs state vs U.S.

74.0%

local

74.0%National 65.2%

Community profile

Age structure, language use, and nativity signals that explain how this geography differs from state and nation.

Median age

Local vs state vs U.S.

44.3 yrs

local

44.3 yrsNational 39.1 yrs

Age 18–29

Local vs state vs U.S.

11.8%

local

11.8%National 15.7%

Age 65+

Local vs state vs U.S.

23.8%

local

23.8%National 17.0%

Foreign born

Local vs state vs U.S.

11.8%

local

11.8%National 14.1%

Non-English at home

Local vs state vs U.S.

22.6%

local

22.6%National 22.2%

English only

Local vs state vs U.S.

77.4%

local

77.4%National 77.8%

Voter Turnout

Turnout in Hilo-Kailua, HI

Estimated using 2020 Census voting-age population.

2024 Turnout

51.5%

vs Previous

-3.1pp

Voting-Age Pop

160,800

History

1988–2024

Competitiveness

How competitive is Hilo-Kailua, HI?

Safe DAvg margin: D+33.7 (last 3 elections)

2008

D+53.7

2012

D+51.2

2016

D+36.6

2020

D+36.3

2024

D+28.3

Elasticity

25.5pp

margin range

Party Flips

last 30 years

5-Elec Avg

D+41.2

Ticket-Splitting

Do voters in Hilo-Kailua, HI split their tickets?

Divergence between offices in the same election reveals persuadable voters.

ConsistencyHeavy splitting (0/100)

2024 Office Comparisons

Offices	Margin A	Margin B	Split
President vs Senate	D+28.3	D+39.7	11.4pp

Average divergence across office pairs: 23.2pp

Containing Geography

Located In

Hilo-Kailua, HI sits inside these higher-level geographies.

Hawaii(State)

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