San Francisco-Oakland-Fremont, CA
Latest: 2024
Safe Democratic — shifted 7.7pp toward Republicans in 2024 — 4.6M residents — 5 counties
Race & ancestry
| Group | % |
|---|---|
▶White (Non-Hispanic)(13) | 35.0% |
▶Hispanic / Latino(20) | 23.2% |
▶Black / African American(14) | 6.8% |
▶Asian(6) | 28.1% |
▶Middle Eastern / North African(11) | 1.7% |
▶Native American / Alaska Native(3) | 1.0% |
▶Native Hawaiian / Pacific Islander(6) | 0.6% |
Multiracial / Other | 5.3% |
Religious adherence
| Tradition | % Pop | % Adherents |
|---|---|---|
| Catholic | 22.0% | 55.7% |
| Other | 7.4% | 18.7% |
| Evangelical Protestant | 5.3% | 13.5% |
| Mainline Protestant | 2.3% | 5.7% |
| Black Protestant | 1.8% | 4.6% |
| LDS (Mormon) | 1.5% | 3.8% |
| Orthodox Christian | 0.7% | 1.8% |
| Non-religious | 60.5% | — |
Presidential results
| Year | Result |
|---|---|
| 2024 | Harris+52.0 |
| 2020 | Biden+59.6 |
| 2016 | Clinton+59.9 |
| 2012 | Obama+53.5 |
| 2008 | Obama+54.6 |
| 2004 | Kerry+46.8 |
| 2000 | Gore+39.8 |
| 1996 | Clinton+37.2 |
| 1992 | Clinton+36.7 |
San Francisco-Oakland-Fremont, CA is a metro area that has a population of 4,645,029. In the 2024 presidential election, it voted Democratic with a margin of D+52.0. Akashic Edge tracks 40 presidential elections here, dating back to 1868.
| Year | Dem % | Rep % | Margin | Swing |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2024 | 74.1% | 22.1% | D+52.0 | R+7.7 |
| 2020 | 78.8% | 19.2% | D+59.6 | R+0.3 |
| 2016 | 76.4% | 16.5% | D+59.9 | D+6.4 |
| 2012 | 75.2% | 21.7% | D+53.5 | R+1.1 |
| 2008 | 76.2% | 21.6% | D+54.6 | D+7.8 |
| 2004 | 72.7% | 25.9% | D+46.8 | D+7.0 |
| 2000 | 66.8% | 27.1% | D+39.8 | D+2.6 |
| 1996 | 63.1% | 26.0% | D+37.2 | D+0.5 |
| 1992 | 60.1% | 23.5% | D+36.7 | D+13.2 |
| 1988 | 61.1% | 37.7% | D+23.5 | D+13.3 |
| 1984 | 54.5% | 44.3% | D+10.2 | D+8.7 |
| 1980 | 43.5% | 42.1% | D+1.5 | R+5.2 |
| 1976 | 51.0% | 44.3% | D+6.7 | D+3.7 |
| 1972 | 50.2% | 47.2% | D+3.0 | R+9.2 |
| 1968 | 52.0% | 39.8% | D+12.1 | R+21.2 |
| 1964 | 66.6% | 33.3% | D+33.3 | D+26.4 |
| 1960 | 53.3% | 46.4% | D+6.9 | D+15.0 |
| 1956 | 45.8% | 53.9% | R+8.1 | D+0.5 |
| 1952 | 45.2% | 53.9% | R+8.7 | R+9.1 |
| 1948 | 47.4% | 47.0% | D+0.4 | — |
What defines San Francisco-Oakland-Fremont, CA?
It has a diverse, highly educated electorate — the core of the modern Democratic coalition.
Constituent Counties
Similar metro areas
Nearest neighbors matched on the same place-page feature set used across the dossier system.
San Jose-Sunnyvale-Santa Clara, CA
Diverse rural democratic
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Diverse rural democratic
Sacramento-Roseville-Folsom, CA
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Trenton-Princeton, NJ
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San Diego-Chula Vista-Carlsbad, CA
Diverse rural democratic
Vallejo, CA
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Los Angeles-Long Beach-Anaheim, CA
Diverse rural democratic
Austin-Round Rock-San Marcos, TX
Diverse rural democratic
Counties in San Francisco-Oakland-Fremont, CA
2024 presidential results across the counties that make up this geography.
Sort:
| County | Pop. | Margin | Dem | Rep | Total | Share |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Alameda | 1.6M | D+53.5 | 499,551 | 140,789 | 669,907 | 32.3% |
| Contra Costa | 1.2M | D+38.0 | 356,008 | 155,308 | 528,904 | 25.5% |
| San Francisco | 830K | D+64.8 | 323,719 | 62,594 | 402,964 | 19.4% |
| San Mateo | 742K | D+50.3 | 242,957 | 76,616 | 330,510 | 15.9% |
| Marin | 258K | D+63.9 | 116,152 | 24,054 | 144,113 | 6.9% |
5 countiesTotal votes: 2,076,398
Ask the Historian
Explore San Francisco-Oakland-Fremont, CA's political evolution with the Historian
Key Insights
High-confidence patterns distilled from this geography's election history.
- Has voted Democratic in the last 5 presidential elections
- Latest election (2024) was a Democratic landslide with a 52.0% margin
- Margins have been narrowing — from 59.9pp to 52.0pp over the last 3 presidential elections
Who Lives Here
A race-first Census view with ancestry expansion where source coverage is strong enough to support detail.
Census race profile
Major Census race and ethnicity groups shown as a share of total population.
| Group | Local | National |
|---|---|---|
▶White (Non-Hispanic)(13) | 35.0% | 57.4% |
▶Asian(6) | 28.1% | 6.0% |
▶Hispanic / Latino(20) | 23.2% | 19.3% |
▶Black / African American(14) | 6.8% | 12.2% |
Multiracial / Other | 5.3% | 4.0% |
▶Middle Eastern / North African(11) | 1.7% | 0.9% |
▶Native American / Alaska Native(3) | 1.0% | 0.9% |
▶Native Hawaiian / Pacific Islander(6) | 0.6% | 0.2% |
Method notes
Religious Adherents
Population that are religious adherents:
39.5%
Catholic-Evangelical edge: +37.7pp (vs national 4.5pp). A strongly Catholic-leaning religious profile, which nationally correlates with Democratic-leaning urban and suburban communities.
| Tradition | % Pop | % Adherents | US Pop | US Adherents |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 22.0% | 55.7% | — | — | |
| 7.4% | 18.7% | — | — | |
| 5.3% | 13.5% | — | — | |
| 2.3% | 5.7% | — | — | |
| 1.8% | 4.6% | — | — | |
LDS (Mormon) | 1.5% | 3.8% | — | — |
| 0.7% | 1.8% | — | — | |
Non-religiousPopulation | 60.5% | — | — | — |
Who lives in the San Francisco-Oakland-Fremont, CA metro area? 4,645,029 residents across 5 counties.
Demographics
Read this geography's profile in three layers: local, state (where available), and national baseline.
53% of adults hold a bachelor's degree — 20pp above the national average. Places with similar education levels vote D+25 on average nationally.
Population & electorate
Scale, voting-age share, and this geography's footprint inside the national electorate.
Total population
4.6M
Share of U.S. population
1.39%
Voting-age population
78.8%
Economic profile
Income, attainment, and ownership indicators that often shape coalition structure and turnout behavior.
Median household income
$136,916
Poverty rate
8.9%
College degree
52.7%
Homeownership
55.5%
Community profile
Age structure, language use, and nativity signals that explain how this geography differs from state and nation.
Median age
40.3 yrs
Age 18–29
14.4%
Age 65+
17.1%
Foreign born
31.9%
Non-English at home
42.6%
English only
57.4%
Turnout in San Francisco-Oakland-Fremont, CA
Estimated using 2020 Census voting-age population.
56.7%
-6.8pp
3,662,466
1988–2024
How competitive is San Francisco-Oakland-Fremont, CA?
Safe DAvg margin: D+57.2 (last 3 elections)
2008
D+54.6
2012
D+53.5
2016
D+59.9
2020
D+59.6
2024
D+52.0
8.0pp
0
D+55.9
Do voters in San Francisco-Oakland-Fremont, CA split their tickets?
Divergence between offices in the same election reveals persuadable voters.
Heavy splitting (8/100)
| Offices | Margin A | Margin B | Split |
|---|---|---|---|
| President vs Senate | D+52.0 | D+50.4 | 1.6pp |
Average divergence across office pairs: 16.0pp
Located In
San Francisco-Oakland-Fremont, CA sits inside these higher-level geographies.
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