Cincinnati, OH-KY-IN
Latest: 2024
Safe Republican — 2.3M residents — 15 counties
Race & ancestry
| Group | % |
|---|---|
▶White (Non-Hispanic)(13) | 75.8% |
▶Hispanic / Latino(18) | 4.6% |
▶Black / African American(12) | 11.5% |
▶Asian(6) | 3.0% |
▶Middle Eastern / North African(10) | 0.6% |
▶Native American / Alaska Native(2) | 0.2% |
▶Native Hawaiian / Pacific Islander(3) | 0.1% |
Multiracial / Other | 4.9% |
Religious adherence
| Tradition | % Pop | % Adherents |
|---|---|---|
| Evangelical Protestant | 24.8% | 48.5% |
| Catholic | 16.9% | 33.1% |
| Mainline Protestant | 4.1% | 8.0% |
| Other | 3.1% | 6.2% |
| Black Protestant | 1.9% | 3.8% |
| LDS (Mormon) | 0.6% | 1.1% |
| Orthodox Christian | 0.3% | 0.5% |
| Non-religious | 48.9% | — |
Presidential results
| Year | Result |
|---|---|
| 2024 | Trump+15.8 |
| 2020 | Trump+13.8 |
| 2016 | Trump+17.6 |
| 2012 | Romney+15.9 |
| 2008 | McCain+13.6 |
| 2004 | Bush+23.2 |
| 2000 | Bush+23.1 |
| 1996 | Dole+13.5 |
| 1992 | Bush+15.0 |
Cincinnati, OH-KY-IN is a metro area that has a population of 2,270,706. In the 2024 presidential election, it voted Republican with a margin of R+15.8. Akashic Edge tracks 40 presidential elections here, dating back to 1868.
| Year | Dem % | Rep % | Margin | Swing |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2024 | 41.5% | 57.3% | R+15.8 | R+2.0 |
| 2020 | 42.3% | 56.1% | R+13.8 | D+3.9 |
| 2016 | 38.0% | 55.6% | R+17.6 | R+1.7 |
| 2012 | 41.2% | 57.1% | R+15.9 | R+2.3 |
| 2008 | 42.5% | 56.1% | R+13.6 | D+9.6 |
| 2004 | 38.2% | 61.4% | R+23.2 | R+0.1 |
| 2000 | 37.0% | 60.1% | R+23.1 | R+9.6 |
| 1996 | 39.1% | 52.6% | R+13.5 | D+1.4 |
| 1992 | 33.4% | 48.3% | R+15.0 | D+14.9 |
| 1988 | 34.7% | 64.5% | R+29.8 | D+5.0 |
| 1984 | 32.3% | 67.1% | R+34.8 | R+12.1 |
| 1980 | 35.8% | 58.5% | R+22.8 | R+6.9 |
| 1976 | 41.2% | 57.1% | R+15.9 | D+19.7 |
| 1972 | 31.2% | 66.8% | R+35.5 | R+21.8 |
| 1968 | 35.2% | 49.0% | R+13.8 | R+26.6 |
| 1964 | 56.4% | 43.6% | D+12.8 | D+24.3 |
| 1960 | 44.3% | 55.7% | R+11.5 | D+16.4 |
| 1956 | 36.0% | 63.9% | R+27.8 | R+12.9 |
| 1952 | 42.5% | 57.5% | R+15.0 | R+15.1 |
| 1948 | 49.7% | 49.5% | D+0.1 | — |
What defines Cincinnati, OH-KY-IN?
It has a moderately diverse, middle-class electorate where education levels and suburban growth shape the partisan balance.
Constituent Counties
Similar metro areas
Nearest neighbors matched on the same place-page feature set used across the dossier system.
Louisville/Jefferson County, KY-IN
Educated rural competitive 2
Chattanooga, TN-GA
Educated rural competitive 2
St. Louis, MO-IL
Educated rural competitive 2
Kansas City, MO-KS
Educated rural competitive 2
Omaha, NE-IA
Educated rural competitive 2
Charlotte-Concord-Gastonia, NC-SC
Educated rural competitive 2
Sioux Falls, SD-MN
Educated rural competitive 2
Davenport-Moline-Rock Island, IA-IL
Educated rural competitive 2
Counties in Cincinnati, OH-KY-IN
2024 presidential results across the counties that make up this geography.
Sort:
| County | Pop. | Margin | Dem | Rep | Total | Share |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Hamilton | 831K | D+14.9 | 233,360 | 172,365 | 410,085 | 36.2% |
| Butler | 393K | R+26.3 | 66,713 | 114,831 | 183,197 | 16.2% |
| Warren | 250K | R+31.5 | 47,128 | 91,132 | 139,619 | 12.3% |
| Clermont | 211K | R+35.8 | 36,130 | 76,964 | 114,143 | 10.1% |
| Kenton | 171K | R+21.7 | 30,859 | 48,444 | 80,948 | 7.1% |
| Boone | 140K | R+37.1 | 20,601 | 45,650 | 67,421 | 5.9% |
| Campbell | 93K | R+19.6 | 18,952 | 28,450 | 48,334 | 4.3% |
| Dearborn | 51K | R+58.3 | 5,335 | 20,844 | 26,600 | 2.3% |
| Brown | 44K | R+61.5 | 4,069 | 17,257 | 21,444 | 1.9% |
| Grant | 25K | R+64.8 | 1,944 | 9,372 | 11,469 | 1.0% |
| Franklin | 23K | R+64.4 | 2,061 | 9,810 | 12,034 | 1.1% |
| Pendleton | 15K | R+63.5 | 1,210 | 5,593 | 6,900 | 0.6% |
| Gallatin | 9K | R+59.9 | 761 | 3,109 | 3,917 | 0.3% |
| Bracken | 8K | R+64.9 | 702 | 3,399 | 4,153 | 0.4% |
| Ohio | 6K | R+55.5 | 666 | 2,381 | 3,091 | 0.3% |
15 countiesTotal votes: 1,133,355
Ask the Historian
Explore Cincinnati, OH-KY-IN's political evolution with the Historian
Key Insights
High-confidence patterns distilled from this geography's election history.
- Has voted Republican in the last 5 presidential elections
Who Lives Here
A race-first Census view with ancestry expansion where source coverage is strong enough to support detail.
Census race profile
Major Census race and ethnicity groups shown as a share of total population.
| Group | Cincinnati, OH-KY-IN | National |
|---|---|---|
▶White (Non-Hispanic)(13) | 75.8% | 57.4% |
▶Black / African American(12) | 11.5% | 12.2% |
Multiracial / Other | 4.9% | 4.0% |
▶Hispanic / Latino(18) | 4.6% | 19.3% |
▶Asian(6) | 3.0% | 6.0% |
▶Middle Eastern / North African(10) | 0.6% | 0.9% |
▶Native American / Alaska Native(2) | 0.2% | 0.9% |
▶Native Hawaiian / Pacific Islander(3) | 0.1% | 0.2% |
Method notes
Religious Adherents
Population that are religious adherents:
51.1%
Catholic-Evangelical edge: -19.9pp (vs national 4.5pp). A strongly Evangelical-leaning religious profile, which nationally correlates with Republican-leaning rural and exurban communities.
| Tradition | % Pop | % Adherents | US Pop | US Adherents |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 24.8% | 48.5% | — | — | |
| 16.9% | 33.1% | — | — | |
| 4.1% | 8.0% | — | — | |
| 3.1% | 6.2% | — | — | |
| 1.9% | 3.8% | — | — | |
LDS (Mormon) | 0.6% | 1.1% | — | — |
| 0.3% | 0.5% | — | — | |
Non-religiousPopulation | 48.9% | — | — | — |
Who lives in the Cincinnati, OH-KY-IN metro area? 2,270,706 residents across 15 counties.
Demographics
Read this geography's profile in three layers: local, state (where available), and national baseline.
Population & electorate
Scale, voting-age share, and this geography's footprint inside the national electorate.
Total population
2.3M
Share of U.S. population
0.68%
Voting-age population
74.9%
Economic profile
Income, attainment, and ownership indicators that often shape coalition structure and turnout behavior.
Median household income
$81,494
Poverty rate
11.8%
College degree
37.1%
Homeownership
68.3%
Community profile
Age structure, language use, and nativity signals that explain how this geography differs from state and nation.
Median age
38.2 yrs
Age 18–29
15.7%
Age 65+
16.6%
Foreign born
5.8%
Non-English at home
7.6%
English only
92.4%
Turnout in Cincinnati, OH-KY-IN
Estimated using 2020 Census voting-age population.
66.7%
-1.0pp
1,700,198
1988–2024
How competitive is Cincinnati, OH-KY-IN?
Safe RAvg margin: R+15.7 (last 3 elections)
2008
R+13.6
2012
R+15.9
2016
R+17.6
2020
R+13.8
2024
R+15.8
4.1pp
0
R+15.3
Do voters in Cincinnati, OH-KY-IN split their tickets?
Divergence between offices in the same election reveals persuadable voters.
Heavy splitting (0/100)
| Offices | Margin A | Margin B | Split |
|---|---|---|---|
| Senate vs Governor | R+6.8 | R+56.1 | 49.3pp |
| President vs Governor | R+15.8 | R+56.1 | 40.3pp |
| President vs Senate | R+15.8 | R+6.8 | 9.0pp |
Average divergence across office pairs: 18.2pp
Located In
Cincinnati, OH-KY-IN sits inside these higher-level geographies.
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