St. Louis, MO-IL
Latest: 2024
Competitive — 2.8M residents — 15 counties
Race & ancestry
| Group | % |
|---|---|
▶White (Non-Hispanic)(13) | 70.6% |
▶Hispanic / Latino(18) | 3.9% |
▶Black / African American(13) | 17.2% |
▶Asian(6) | 2.9% |
▶Middle Eastern / North African(10) | 0.5% |
▶Native American / Alaska Native(1) | 0.2% |
Multiracial / Other | 5.2% |
Religious adherence
| Tradition | % Pop | % Adherents |
|---|---|---|
| Catholic | 21.2% | 41.5% |
| Evangelical Protestant | 16.2% | 31.6% |
| Mainline Protestant | 5.8% | 11.2% |
| Black Protestant | 4.0% | 7.7% |
| Other | 3.9% | 7.5% |
| LDS (Mormon) | 0.7% | 1.4% |
| Orthodox Christian | 0.2% | 0.5% |
| Non-religious | 48.8% | — |
Presidential results
| Year | Result |
|---|---|
| 2024 | Harris+0.8 |
| 2020 | Biden+3.3 |
| 2016 | Trump+0.8 |
| 2012 | Obama+6.9 |
| 2008 | Obama+16.1 |
| 2004 | Kerry+7.8 |
| 2000 | Gore+8.0 |
| 1996 | Clinton+13.5 |
| 1992 | Clinton+16.5 |
St. Louis, MO-IL is a metro area that has a population of 2,810,850. In the 2024 presidential election, it voted Democratic with a margin of D+0.8. Akashic Edge tracks 40 presidential elections here, dating back to 1868.
| Year | Dem % | Rep % | Margin | Swing |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2024 | 49.5% | 48.7% | D+0.8 | R+2.5 |
| 2020 | 50.7% | 47.4% | D+3.3 | D+4.1 |
| 2016 | 46.6% | 47.4% | R+0.8 | R+7.7 |
| 2012 | 52.5% | 45.6% | D+6.9 | R+9.2 |
| 2008 | 57.4% | 41.3% | D+16.1 | D+8.3 |
| 2004 | 53.6% | 45.8% | D+7.8 | R+0.2 |
| 2000 | 52.8% | 44.9% | D+8.0 | R+5.6 |
| 1996 | 51.6% | 38.1% | D+13.5 | R+3.0 |
| 1992 | 47.7% | 31.2% | D+16.5 | D+15.0 |
| 1988 | 50.6% | 49.0% | D+1.5 | D+12.0 |
| 1984 | 29.5% | 39.9% | R+10.5 | R+7.0 |
| 1980 | 32.2% | 35.7% | R+3.5 | R+6.4 |
| 1976 | 36.1% | 33.1% | D+2.9 | D+11.5 |
| 1972 | 30.6% | 39.1% | R+8.5 | R+15.0 |
| 1968 | 36.7% | 30.3% | D+6.5 | R+19.9 |
| 1964 | 49.8% | 23.5% | D+26.3 | D+15.0 |
| 1960 | 43.3% | 31.9% | D+11.3 | D+5.6 |
| 1956 | 41.8% | 36.0% | D+5.7 | R+2.8 |
| 1952 | 44.8% | 36.2% | D+8.5 | R+7.2 |
| 1948 | 50.0% | 34.3% | D+15.7 | — |
What defines St. Louis, MO-IL?
St. Louis, MO-IL has been won by both parties in the last 6 presidential elections (5D, 1R) — a genuine swing geography. It has a moderately diverse, middle-class electorate where education levels and suburban growth shape the partisan balance.
Constituent Counties
Similar metro areas
Nearest neighbors matched on the same place-page feature set used across the dossier system.
Louisville/Jefferson County, KY-IN
Educated rural competitive 2
Kansas City, MO-KS
Educated rural competitive 2
Virginia Beach-Chesapeake-Norfolk, VA-NC
Educated rural competitive 2
Charlotte-Concord-Gastonia, NC-SC
Educated rural competitive 2
Cincinnati, OH-KY-IN
Educated rural competitive 2
Minneapolis-St. Paul-Bloomington, MN-WI
Educated rural competitive 2
Philadelphia-Camden-Wilmington, PA-NJ-DE-MD
Educated rural competitive 2
Omaha, NE-IA
Educated rural competitive 2
Counties in St. Louis, MO-IL
2024 presidential results across the counties that make up this geography.
Sort:
| County | Pop. | Margin | Dem | Rep | Total | Share |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| St. Louis County | 996K | D+23.4 | 305,635 | 187,982 | 502,738 | 35.6% |
| St. Charles | 415K | R+17.0 | 92,226 | 130,588 | 226,166 | 16.0% |
| St. Louis City | 289K | D+64.6 | 94,458 | 19,342 | 116,271 | 8.2% |
| Madison | 264K | R+13.2 | 56,341 | 73,925 | 133,072 | 9.4% |
| St. Clair | 254K | D+7.8 | 63,433 | 54,021 | 119,962 | 8.5% |
| Jefferson | 229K | R+36.7 | 36,965 | 80,796 | 119,314 | 8.5% |
| Franklin | 106K | R+45.9 | 14,694 | 40,126 | 55,464 | 3.9% |
| Lincoln | 63K | R+55.9 | 6,908 | 24,866 | 32,133 | 2.3% |
| Macoupin | 44K | R+39.2 | 6,892 | 16,065 | 23,425 | 1.7% |
| Warren | 37K | R+49.5 | 4,970 | 14,915 | 20,095 | 1.4% |
| Clinton | 37K | R+51.8 | 4,447 | 14,407 | 19,230 | 1.4% |
| Monroe | 35K | R+36.3 | 6,473 | 14,055 | 20,902 | 1.5% |
| Jersey | 21K | R+50.2 | 2,816 | 8,684 | 11,694 | 0.8% |
| Bond | 17K | R+44.7 | 2,117 | 5,692 | 7,991 | 0.6% |
| Calhoun | 4K | R+55.9 | 560 | 2,059 | 2,680 | 0.2% |
15 countiesTotal votes: 1,411,137
Ask the Historian
Explore St. Louis, MO-IL's political evolution with the Historian
Key Insights
High-confidence patterns distilled from this geography's election history.
- The 2016 election was decided by just 0.8 points — razor-thin
- Won by both parties in recent history — Democrats most recently in 2024, Republicans in 2016
Who Lives Here
A race-first Census view with ancestry expansion where source coverage is strong enough to support detail.
Census race profile
Major Census race and ethnicity groups shown as a share of total population.
| Group | St. Louis, MO-IL | National |
|---|---|---|
▶White (Non-Hispanic)(13) | 70.6% | 57.4% |
▶Black / African American(13) | 17.2% | 12.2% |
Multiracial / Other | 5.2% | 4.0% |
▶Hispanic / Latino(18) | 3.9% | 19.3% |
▶Asian(6) | 2.9% | 6.0% |
▶Middle Eastern / North African(10) | 0.5% | 0.9% |
▶Native American / Alaska Native(1) | 0.2% | 0.9% |
Method notes
Religious Adherents
Population that are religious adherents:
51.2%
Catholic-Evangelical edge: +5.4pp (vs national 4.5pp). A moderate religious balance between Catholic and Evangelical traditions.
| Tradition | % Pop | % Adherents | US Pop | US Adherents |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 21.2% | 41.5% | — | — | |
| 16.2% | 31.6% | — | — | |
| 5.8% | 11.2% | — | — | |
| 4.0% | 7.7% | — | — | |
| 3.9% | 7.5% | — | — | |
LDS (Mormon) | 0.7% | 1.4% | — | — |
| 0.2% | 0.5% | — | — | |
Non-religiousPopulation | 48.8% | — | — | — |
Who lives in the St. Louis, MO-IL metro area? 2,810,850 residents across 15 counties.
Demographics
Read this geography's profile in three layers: local, state (where available), and national baseline.
38% of adults hold a bachelor's degree — 5pp above the national average. Places with similar education levels vote D+8 on average nationally.
Population & electorate
Scale, voting-age share, and this geography's footprint inside the national electorate.
Total population
2.8M
Share of U.S. population
0.84%
Voting-age population
76.2%
Economic profile
Income, attainment, and ownership indicators that often shape coalition structure and turnout behavior.
Median household income
$80,889
Poverty rate
10.5%
College degree
38.2%
Homeownership
70.4%
Community profile
Age structure, language use, and nativity signals that explain how this geography differs from state and nation.
Median age
40.0 yrs
Age 18–29
14.6%
Age 65+
18.0%
Foreign born
5.2%
Non-English at home
6.9%
English only
93.1%
Turnout in St. Louis, MO-IL
Estimated using 2020 Census voting-age population.
65.9%
-2.5pp
2,142,025
1988–2024
How competitive is St. Louis, MO-IL?
TossupAvg margin: D+1.1 (last 3 elections)
2008
D+16.1
2012
D+6.9
2016
R+0.8
2020
D+3.3
2024
D+0.8
16.9pp
2
D+5.3
Do voters in St. Louis, MO-IL split their tickets?
Divergence between offices in the same election reveals persuadable voters.
Moderate splitting (55/100)
| Offices | Margin A | Margin B | Split |
|---|---|---|---|
| President vs Senate | D+0.8 | D+10.0 | 9.2pp |
| Senate vs Governor | D+10.0 | D+1.4 | 8.6pp |
| President vs Governor | D+0.8 | D+1.4 | 0.6pp |
Average divergence across office pairs: 9.3pp
Located In
St. Louis, MO-IL sits inside these higher-level geographies.
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