Lynchburg, VA
Latest: 2024
Safe Republican — shifted 5.6pp toward Republicans in 2024 — 264K residents — 5 counties
Race & ancestry
| Group | % |
|---|---|
▶White (Non-Hispanic)(13) | 73.8% |
▶Hispanic / Latino(19) | 3.6% |
▶Black / African American(10) | 16.1% |
▶Asian(6) | 1.4% |
▶Middle Eastern / North African(7) | 0.3% |
▶Native American / Alaska Native(2) | 0.2% |
▶Native Hawaiian / Pacific Islander(3) | 0.1% |
Multiracial / Other | 4.7% |
Religious adherence
| Tradition | % Pop | % Adherents |
|---|---|---|
| Evangelical Protestant | 38.0% | 68.4% |
| Mainline Protestant | 9.6% | 17.3% |
| Catholic | 4.6% | 8.2% |
| Other | 1.9% | 3.3% |
| Black Protestant | 1.4% | 2.6% |
| LDS (Mormon) | 0.8% | 1.4% |
| Non-religious | 44.5% | — |
Presidential results
| Year | Result |
|---|---|
| 2024 | Trump+37.7 |
| 2020 | Trump+32.1 |
| 2016 | Trump+35.1 |
| 2012 | Romney+29.6 |
| 2008 | McCain+24.3 |
| 2004 | Bush+29.6 |
| 2000 | Bush+24.1 |
| 1996 | Dole+11.7 |
| 1992 | Bush+16.9 |
Lynchburg, VA is a metro area that has a population of 263,798. In the 2024 presidential election, it voted Republican with a margin of R+37.7. Akashic Edge tracks 39 presidential elections here, dating back to 1872.
| Year | Dem % | Rep % | Margin | Swing |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2024 | 30.7% | 68.4% | R+37.7 | R+5.6 |
| 2020 | 32.9% | 64.9% | R+32.1 | D+3.0 |
| 2016 | 29.7% | 64.8% | R+35.1 | R+5.5 |
| 2012 | 34.4% | 64.0% | R+29.6 | R+5.3 |
| 2008 | 37.3% | 61.6% | R+24.3 | D+5.3 |
| 2004 | 34.7% | 64.3% | R+29.6 | R+5.5 |
| 2000 | 36.7% | 60.7% | R+24.1 | R+12.3 |
| 1996 | 39.7% | 51.5% | R+11.7 | D+5.2 |
| 1992 | 34.6% | 51.5% | R+16.9 | D+17.2 |
| 1988 | 32.3% | 66.3% | R+34.1 | D+5.2 |
| 1984 | 30.0% | 69.2% | R+39.3 | R+12.5 |
| 1980 | 34.3% | 61.0% | R+26.8 | R+10.3 |
| 1976 | 39.9% | 56.4% | R+16.5 | D+40.0 |
| 1972 | 20.1% | 76.7% | R+56.5 | R+30.9 |
| 1968 | 20.5% | 46.1% | R+25.6 | R+10.8 |
| 1964 | 42.5% | 57.3% | R+14.8 | R+12.1 |
| 1960 | 48.4% | 51.2% | R+2.7 | D+9.6 |
| 1956 | 41.6% | 53.9% | R+12.3 | R+2.0 |
| 1952 | 44.7% | 55.0% | R+10.3 | R+30.1 |
| 1948 | 47.5% | 27.8% | D+19.8 | — |
What defines Lynchburg, VA?
It has a moderately diverse, middle-class electorate where education levels and suburban growth shape the partisan balance.
Constituent Counties
Similar metro areas
Nearest neighbors matched on the same place-page feature set used across the dossier system.
Knoxville, TN
Educated rural competitive 2
Greenville-Anderson-Greer, SC
Small-town rural republican 2
Pensacola-Ferry Pass-Brent, FL
Small-town rural republican 2
Roanoke, VA
Small-town rural republican 2
Springfield, MO
Small-town rural republican 2
Birmingham, AL
Educated rural competitive 2
Jefferson City, MO
Small-town rural republican 3
New Bern, NC
Small-town rural republican 2
Counties in Lynchburg, VA
2024 presidential results across the counties that make up this geography.
Sort:
| County | Pop. | Margin | Dem | Rep | Total | Share |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Bedford | 81K | R+50.4 | 12,414 | 38,017 | 50,830 | 34.9% |
| Lynchburg City | 79K | R+7.9 | 16,664 | 19,574 | 36,715 | 25.2% |
| Campbell | 55K | R+48.6 | 7,890 | 23,032 | 31,171 | 21.4% |
| Amherst | 31K | R+36.5 | 5,429 | 11,742 | 17,303 | 11.9% |
| Appomattox | 17K | R+51.0 | 2,324 | 7,243 | 9,642 | 6.6% |
5 countiesTotal votes: 145,661
Ask the Historian
Explore Lynchburg, VA's political evolution with the Historian
Key Insights
High-confidence patterns distilled from this geography's election history.
- Has voted Republican in the last 5 presidential elections
- Latest election (2024) was a Republican landslide with a 37.7% margin
- Swung 5.6 points toward Republican between 2020 and 2024
Who Lives Here
A race-first Census view with ancestry expansion where source coverage is strong enough to support detail.
Census race profile
Major Census race and ethnicity groups shown as a share of total population.
| Group | Lynchburg, VA | National |
|---|---|---|
▶White (Non-Hispanic)(13) | 73.8% | 57.4% |
▶Black / African American(10) | 16.1% | 12.2% |
Multiracial / Other | 4.7% | 4.0% |
▶Hispanic / Latino(19) | 3.6% | 19.3% |
▶Asian(6) | 1.4% | 6.0% |
▶Middle Eastern / North African(7) | 0.3% | 0.9% |
▶Native American / Alaska Native(2) | 0.2% | 0.9% |
▶Native Hawaiian / Pacific Islander(3) | 0.1% | 0.2% |
Method notes
Religious Adherents
Population that are religious adherents:
55.5%
Catholic-Evangelical edge: -64.7pp (vs national 4.5pp). A strongly Evangelical-leaning religious profile, which nationally correlates with Republican-leaning rural and exurban communities.
| Tradition | % Pop | % Adherents | US Pop | US Adherents |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 38.0% | 68.4% | — | — | |
| 9.6% | 17.3% | — | — | |
| 4.6% | 8.2% | — | — | |
| 1.9% | 3.3% | — | — | |
| 1.4% | 2.6% | — | — | |
LDS (Mormon) | 0.8% | 1.4% | — | — |
Non-religiousPopulation | 44.5% | — | — | — |
Who lives in the Lynchburg, VA metro area? 263,798 residents across 5 counties.
Demographics
Read this geography's profile in three layers: local, state (where available), and national baseline.
Population & electorate
Scale, voting-age share, and this geography's footprint inside the national electorate.
Total population
264K
Share of U.S. population
0.08%
Voting-age population
75.4%
Economic profile
Income, attainment, and ownership indicators that often shape coalition structure and turnout behavior.
Median household income
$68,077
Poverty rate
12.5%
College degree
31.6%
Homeownership
71.6%
Community profile
Age structure, language use, and nativity signals that explain how this geography differs from state and nation.
Median age
40.1 yrs
Age 18–29
19.0%
Age 65+
19.8%
Foreign born
3.4%
Non-English at home
4.8%
English only
95.2%
Turnout in Lynchburg, VA
Estimated using 2020 Census voting-age population.
73.2%
+2.2pp
198,941
1988–2024
How competitive is Lynchburg, VA?
Safe RAvg margin: R+35.0 (last 3 elections)
2008
R+24.3
2012
R+29.6
2016
R+35.1
2020
R+32.1
2024
R+37.7
13.4pp
0
R+31.8
Do voters in Lynchburg, VA split their tickets?
Divergence between offices in the same election reveals persuadable voters.
Moderate splitting (55/100)
| Offices | Margin A | Margin B | Split |
|---|---|---|---|
| President vs Senate | R+37.7 | R+35.1 | 2.6pp |
Average divergence across office pairs: 9.2pp
Located In
Lynchburg, VA sits inside these higher-level geographies.
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