Scranton--Wilkes-Barre, PA
Latest: 2024
Leans Republican — shifted 5.0pp toward Republicans in 2024 — 570K residents — 3 counties
Race & ancestry
| Group | % |
|---|---|
▶White (Non-Hispanic)(13) | 77.1% |
▶Hispanic / Latino(19) | 13.8% |
▶Black / African American(13) | 4.1% |
▶Asian(6) | 1.8% |
▶Middle Eastern / North African(9) | 0.7% |
▶Native American / Alaska Native(1) | 0.1% |
▶Native Hawaiian / Pacific Islander(2) | 0.1% |
Multiracial / Other | 3.0% |
Religious adherence
| Tradition | % Pop | % Adherents |
|---|---|---|
| Catholic | 38.5% | 70.4% |
| Mainline Protestant | 6.9% | 12.6% |
| Evangelical Protestant | 6.0% | 11.0% |
| Other | 2.8% | 5.2% |
| LDS (Mormon) | 0.5% | 1.0% |
| Orthodox Christian | 0.4% | 0.7% |
| Non-religious | 45.3% | — |
Presidential results
| Year | Result |
|---|---|
| 2024 | Trump+11.2 |
| 2020 | Trump+6.2 |
| 2016 | Trump+10.9 |
| 2012 | Obama+13.3 |
| 2008 | Obama+14.9 |
| 2004 | Kerry+6.5 |
| 2000 | Gore+13.0 |
| 1996 | Clinton+16.8 |
| 1992 | Clinton+7.3 |
Scranton--Wilkes-Barre, PA is a metro area that has a population of 569,788. In the 2024 presidential election, it voted Republican with a margin of R+11.2. Akashic Edge tracks 40 presidential elections here, dating back to 1868.
| Year | Dem % | Rep % | Margin | Swing |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2024 | 44.0% | 55.2% | R+11.2 | R+5.0 |
| 2020 | 46.4% | 52.6% | R+6.2 | D+4.7 |
| 2016 | 42.7% | 53.6% | R+10.9 | R+24.2 |
| 2012 | 55.8% | 42.5% | D+13.3 | R+1.6 |
| 2008 | 56.6% | 41.7% | D+14.9 | D+8.4 |
| 2004 | 52.7% | 46.1% | D+6.5 | R+6.5 |
| 2000 | 54.5% | 41.4% | D+13.0 | R+3.7 |
| 1996 | 52.7% | 35.9% | D+16.8 | D+9.5 |
| 1992 | 45.0% | 37.7% | D+7.3 | D+7.7 |
| 1988 | 49.4% | 49.8% | R+0.4 | D+7.2 |
| 1984 | 45.6% | 53.2% | R+7.5 | R+3.4 |
| 1980 | 45.1% | 49.2% | R+4.2 | R+15.0 |
| 1976 | 54.8% | 44.0% | D+10.8 | D+30.2 |
| 1972 | 39.9% | 59.3% | R+19.4 | R+34.8 |
| 1968 | 55.5% | 40.1% | D+15.4 | R+27.4 |
| 1964 | 71.1% | 28.3% | D+42.8 | D+23.9 |
| 1960 | 59.4% | 40.4% | D+18.9 | D+32.8 |
| 1956 | 42.9% | 56.7% | R+13.8 | R+8.1 |
| 1952 | 47.0% | 52.7% | R+5.8 | R+8.0 |
| 1948 | 50.5% | 48.2% | D+2.3 | — |
What defines Scranton--Wilkes-Barre, PA?
Scranton--Wilkes-Barre, PA has been won by both parties in the last 6 presidential elections (3D, 3R) — a genuine swing geography.
Constituent Counties
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Nearest neighbors matched on the same place-page feature set used across the dossier system.
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Albany-Schenectady-Troy, NY
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Counties in Scranton--Wilkes-Barre, PA
2024 presidential results across the counties that make up this geography.
Sort:
| County | Pop. | Margin | Dem | Rep | Total | Share |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Luzerne | 328K | R+19.2 | 62,504 | 92,444 | 156,150 | 54.3% |
| Lackawanna | 216K | D+2.8 | 59,510 | 56,261 | 116,590 | 40.5% |
| Wyoming | 26K | R+36.8 | 4,680 | 10,222 | 15,052 | 5.2% |
3 countiesTotal votes: 287,792
Ask the Historian
Explore Scranton--Wilkes-Barre, PA's political evolution with the Historian
Key Insights
High-confidence patterns distilled from this geography's election history.
- Won by both parties in recent history — Democrats most recently in 2012, Republicans in 2024
- Highly elastic — margins have ranged 26.1 points across recent elections, suggesting a volatile electorate
- Swung 5.0 points toward Republican between 2020 and 2024
Who Lives Here
A race-first Census view with ancestry expansion where source coverage is strong enough to support detail.
Census race profile
Major Census race and ethnicity groups shown as a share of total population.
| Group | Local | National |
|---|---|---|
▶White (Non-Hispanic)(13) | 77.1% | 57.4% |
▶Hispanic / Latino(19) | 13.8% | 19.3% |
▶Black / African American(13) | 4.1% | 12.2% |
Multiracial / Other | 3.0% | 4.0% |
▶Asian(6) | 1.8% | 6.0% |
▶Middle Eastern / North African(9) | 0.7% | 0.9% |
▶Native American / Alaska Native(1) | 0.1% | 0.9% |
▶Native Hawaiian / Pacific Islander(2) | 0.1% | 0.2% |
Method notes
Religious Adherents
Population that are religious adherents:
54.7%
Catholic-Evangelical edge: +55.0pp (vs national 4.5pp). A strongly Catholic-leaning religious profile, which nationally correlates with Democratic-leaning urban and suburban communities.
| Tradition | % Pop | % Adherents | US Pop | US Adherents |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 38.5% | 70.4% | — | — | |
| 6.9% | 12.6% | — | — | |
| 6.0% | 11.0% | — | — | |
| 2.8% | 5.2% | — | — | |
LDS (Mormon) | 0.5% | 1.0% | — | — |
| 0.4% | 0.7% | — | — | |
Non-religiousPopulation | 45.3% | — | — | — |
Who lives in the Scranton--Wilkes-Barre, PA metro area? 569,788 residents across 3 counties.
Demographics
Read this geography's profile in three layers: local, state (where available), and national baseline.
27% of adults hold a bachelor's degree — 6pp below the national average. Places with similar education levels vote R+3 on average nationally.
Population & electorate
Scale, voting-age share, and this geography's footprint inside the national electorate.
Total population
570K
Share of U.S. population
0.17%
Voting-age population
76.2%
Economic profile
Income, attainment, and ownership indicators that often shape coalition structure and turnout behavior.
Median household income
$65,054
Poverty rate
14.8%
College degree
27.2%
Homeownership
67.4%
Community profile
Age structure, language use, and nativity signals that explain how this geography differs from state and nation.
Median age
42.1 yrs
Age 18–29
14.5%
Age 65+
20.4%
Foreign born
8.2%
Non-English at home
13.1%
English only
86.9%
Turnout in Scranton--Wilkes-Barre, PA
Estimated using 2020 Census voting-age population.
66.3%
+1.0pp
434,195
1988–2024
How competitive is Scranton--Wilkes-Barre, PA?
Lean RAvg margin: R+9.4 (last 3 elections)
2008
D+14.9
2012
D+13.3
2016
R+10.9
2020
R+6.2
2024
R+11.2
26.1pp
1
R+0.0
Do voters in Scranton--Wilkes-Barre, PA split their tickets?
Divergence between offices in the same election reveals persuadable voters.
Heavy splitting (44/100)
| Offices | Margin A | Margin B | Split |
|---|---|---|---|
| President vs Senate | R+11.2 | R+6.3 | 4.9pp |
Average divergence across office pairs: 10.9pp
Located In
Scranton--Wilkes-Barre, PA sits inside these higher-level geographies.
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