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Sierra Vista-Douglas, AZ

Sierra Vista-Douglas, AZ

Latest: 2024↓ R+3.5 vs 2020

Safe Republican — shifted 3.5pp toward Republicans in 2024 — 126K residents — 1 counties

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Race & ancestry
Group%
▶White (Non-Hispanic)(13)
54.1%
▶Hispanic / Latino(17)
34.7%
▶Black / African American(8)
3.3%
▶Asian(6)
1.9%
▶Middle Eastern / North African(7)
0.3%
▶Native American / Alaska Native(8)
1.1%
▶Native Hawaiian / Pacific Islander(1)
0.2%
Multiracial / Other
4.8%
View full demographics →
Religious adherence
Tradition% Pop% Adherents
Catholic19.0%41.8%
Evangelical Protestant12.6%27.7%
Other10.6%23.3%
LDS (Mormon)8.6%19.0%
Mainline Protestant1.8%4.0%
Black Protestant1.2%2.7%
Orthodox Christian0.2%0.4%
Non-religious54.6%—
View full religion →
Presidential results
YearResult
2024Trump+23.1
2020Trump+19.6
2016Trump+21.3
2012Romney+22.3
2008McCain+20.5
2004Bush+20.3
2000Bush+14.5
1996Dole+1.8
1992Clinton+1.5
View full election history →

Sierra Vista-Douglas, AZ is a metro area that has a population of 125,566. In the 2024 presidential election, it voted Republican with a margin of R+23.1. Akashic Edge tracks 29 presidential elections here, dating back to 1912.

Sierra Vista-Douglas, AZ Presidential Election Results, 1948–2024
YearDem %Rep %MarginSwing
202437.7%60.8%R+23.1R+3.5
202039.2%58.8%R+19.6D+1.7
201634.9%56.2%R+21.3D+1.0
201237.7%60.0%R+22.3R+1.7
200838.6%59.1%R+20.5R+0.3
200439.3%59.5%R+20.3R+5.8
200040.2%54.7%R+14.5R+12.7
199643.2%45.0%R+1.8R+3.3
199238.3%36.8%D+1.5D+15.8
198842.1%56.4%R+14.3D+11.3
198436.7%62.2%R+25.6D+2.6
198031.3%59.5%R+28.2R+25.0
197646.7%49.9%R+3.2D+27.8
197232.9%64.0%R+31.1R+24.9
196839.5%45.6%R+6.1R+14.5
196454.2%45.8%D+8.4D+9.4
196049.4%50.5%R+1.0D+11.8
195643.6%56.4%R+12.8R+5.8
195246.5%53.5%R+7.0R+29.6
194859.8%37.2%D+22.6—
Political Identity

What defines Sierra Vista-Douglas, AZ?

It has a plurality-minority electorate (46% nonwhite) where demographic change is reshaping the political map.

Constituent Counties

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Similarity Explorer

Similar metro areas

Nearest neighbors matched on the same place-page feature set used across the dossier system.
8 visible matches
Constituent Geography

Counties in Sierra Vista-Douglas, AZ

2024 presidential results across the counties that make up this geography.
Sort:
CountyPop.MarginDemRepTotalShare
Cochise126K
R+23.1
22,29635,93659,135100.0%
1 countiesTotal votes: 59,135
Historian Query

Ask the Historian

Explore Sierra Vista-Douglas, AZ's political evolution with the Historian
Automated Readout

Key Insights

High-confidence patterns distilled from this geography's election history.
  • Has voted Republican in the last 5 presidential elections
  • Latest election (2024) was a Republican landslide with a 23.1% margin
Race & Ancestry

Who Lives Here

A race-first Census view with ancestry expansion where source coverage is strong enough to support detail.
Sierra Vista-Douglas, AZCensus ACS 2024Ancestry detail available
Census race profile
Major Census race and ethnicity groups shown as a share of total population.
Expand rows for ancestry detail
White (Non-Hispanic) 54.1%Hispanic 34.7%Multiracial 4.8%Black 3.3%Asian 1.9%Native American 1.1%
GroupLocalNational
▶White (Non-Hispanic)(13)
54.1%57.4%
▶Hispanic / Latino(17)
34.7%19.3%
Multiracial / Other
4.8%4.0%
▶Black / African American(8)
3.3%12.2%
▶Asian(6)
1.9%6.0%
▶Native American / Alaska Native(8)
1.1%0.9%
▶Middle Eastern / North African(7)
0.3%0.9%
▶Native Hawaiian / Pacific Islander(1)
0.2%0.2%
Method notes

Census treats race and Hispanic/Latino origin as separate questions. Race categories other than Hispanic reflect total populations (small Hispanic overlap in Black, Asian, AIAN, NHPI). “Multiracial / Other” is derived as a non-overlapping remainder.

Click rows to expand ancestry detail. Ancestry from ACS B04006, B03001, B02020, B02016. Totals may differ from race — individuals can report multiple ancestries.

Black / African American (estimated remainder) is derived as Black population share minus reported Sub-Saharan African and West Indian ancestry. It is shown as an estimated ancestry detail, not a standalone Census ancestry category.

MENA estimated from ancestry reporting — Census does not have a separate MENA race category. Not shown in bar (overlaps with other race groups).

Religious Adherents

Population that are religious adherents:
45.4%(57.0K people)
U.S. Religion Census 2020
Browse all religions

Catholic-Evangelical edge: +9.6pp (vs national 4.5pp). A strongly Catholic-leaning religious profile, which nationally correlates with Democratic-leaning urban and suburban communities.

Tradition% Pop% AdherentsUS PopUS Adherents
Catholic
19.0%41.8%——
Evangelical Protestant
12.6%27.7%——
Other
10.6%23.3%——
LDS (Mormon)
8.6%19.0%——
Mainline Protestant
1.8%4.0%——
Black Protestant
1.2%2.7%——
Orthodox Christian
0.2%0.4%——
Non-religiousPopulation
54.6%———
Click the chevron to expand denominations. Tradition and denomination rows label both share of total population and share of all religious adherents. Non-religious is shown as a share of total population only.

Who lives in the Sierra Vista-Douglas, AZ metro area? 125,566 residents across 1 counties.

Demographic Comparison

Demographics

Read this geography's profile in three layers: local, state (where available), and national baseline.
Sierra Vista-Douglas, AZ vs National126K residents
Population & electorate

Scale, voting-age share, and this geography's footprint inside the national electorate.

Total population
Local vs state vs U.S.
126K
local
126KNational 334.9M
Share of U.S. population
Local vs state vs U.S.
0.04%
local
0.04%National 100%
Voting-age population
Local vs state vs U.S.
74.8%
local
74.8%National 75.7%
Economic profile

Income, attainment, and ownership indicators that often shape coalition structure and turnout behavior.

Median household income
Local vs state vs U.S.
$59,742
local
$59,742National $83,960
Poverty rate
Local vs state vs U.S.
15.4%
local
15.4%National 12.5%
College degree
Local vs state vs U.S.
28.1%
local
28.1%National 35.6%
Homeownership
Local vs state vs U.S.
71.0%
local
71.0%National 65.2%
Community profile

Age structure, language use, and nativity signals that explain how this geography differs from state and nation.

Median age
Local vs state vs U.S.
43.0 yrs
local
43.0 yrsNational 39.1 yrs
Age 18–29
Local vs state vs U.S.
13.7%
local
13.7%National 15.7%
Age 65+
Local vs state vs U.S.
24.8%
local
24.8%National 17.0%
Foreign born
Local vs state vs U.S.
11.3%
local
11.3%National 14.1%
Non-English at home
Local vs state vs U.S.
26.8%
local
26.8%National 22.2%
English only
Local vs state vs U.S.
73.2%
local
73.2%National 77.8%
Voter Turnout

Turnout in Sierra Vista-Douglas, AZ

Estimated using 2020 Census voting-age population.
2024 Turnout
62.9%
vs Previous
-1.5pp
Voting-Age Pop
93,967
History
1988–2024
Competitiveness

How competitive is Sierra Vista-Douglas, AZ?

Safe RAvg margin: R+21.3 (last 3 elections)
2008
R+20.5
2012
R+22.3
2016
R+21.3
2020
R+19.6
2024
R+23.1
Elasticity
3.5pp
margin range
Party Flips
0
last 30 years
5-Elec Avg
R+21.3
Ticket-Splitting

Do voters in Sierra Vista-Douglas, AZ split their tickets?

Divergence between offices in the same election reveals persuadable voters.
ConsistencyHeavy splitting (0/100)
2024 Office Comparisons
OfficesMargin AMargin BSplit
President vs SenateR+23.1R+16.96.2pp
Average divergence across office pairs: 17.1pp
Containing Geography

Located In

Sierra Vista-Douglas, AZ sits inside these higher-level geographies.
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