Brownsville-Harlingen, TX
Leans Republican — shifted 19.0pp toward Republicans in 2024 — 426K residents — 1 counties
| Group | % |
|---|---|
▶White (Non-Hispanic)(12) | 8.7% |
▶Hispanic / Latino(17) | 89.3% |
▶Black / African American(3) | 0.6% |
▶Asian(6) | 0.8% |
▶Middle Eastern / North African(5) | 0.1% |
▶Native American / Alaska Native(5) | 0.5% |
▶Native Hawaiian / Pacific Islander(2) | 0.1% |
| Tradition | % Pop | % Adherents |
|---|---|---|
| Catholic | 36.3% | 67.4% |
| Evangelical Protestant | 12.9% | 24.0% |
| Other | 3.3% | 6.2% |
| Mainline Protestant | 1.2% | 2.2% |
| LDS (Mormon) | 1.2% | 2.2% |
| Black Protestant | 0.1% | 0.2% |
| Non-religious | 46.1% | — |
| Year | Result |
|---|---|
| 2024 | Trump+5.8 |
| 2020 | Biden+13.2 |
| 2016 | Clinton+32.3 |
| 2012 | Obama+31.1 |
| 2008 | Obama+28.7 |
| 2004 | Bush+1.2 |
| 2000 | Gore+8.7 |
| 1996 | Clinton+29.1 |
| 1992 | Clinton+15.8 |
Brownsville-Harlingen, TX is a metro area that has a population of 426,120. In the 2024 presidential election, it voted Republican with a margin of R+5.8. Akashic Edge tracks 39 presidential elections here, dating back to 1872.
| Year | Dem % | Rep % | Margin | Swing |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2024 | 46.7% | 52.5% | R+5.8 | R+19.0 |
| 2020 | 56.1% | 42.9% | D+13.2 | R+19.1 |
| 2016 | 64.1% | 31.8% | D+32.3 | D+1.2 |
| 2012 | 65.0% | 33.9% | D+31.1 | D+2.4 |
| 2008 | 63.7% | 35.1% | D+28.7 | D+29.8 |
| 2004 | 49.2% | 50.3% | R+1.2 | R+9.9 |
| 2000 | 53.5% | 44.8% | D+8.7 | R+20.4 |
| 1996 | 61.8% | 32.6% | D+29.1 | D+13.4 |
| 1992 | 49.8% | 34.1% | D+15.8 | D+3.7 |
| 1988 | 55.8% | 43.7% | D+12.1 | D+17.7 |
| 1984 | 47.0% | 52.6% | R+5.6 | R+8.1 |
| 1980 | 50.1% | 47.6% | D+2.5 | R+18.5 |
| 1976 | 60.1% | 39.1% | D+21.0 | D+42.8 |
| 1972 | 38.9% | 60.7% | R+21.8 | R+35.2 |
| 1968 | 53.3% | 39.8% | D+13.4 | R+12.0 |
| 1964 | 62.6% | 37.1% | D+25.4 | D+15.6 |
| 1960 | 54.8% | 45.0% | D+9.8 | D+24.7 |
| 1956 | 42.0% | 56.9% | R+14.9 | D+15.0 |
| 1952 | 35.0% | 64.9% | R+29.9 | R+47.5 |
| 1948 | 57.2% | 39.5% | D+17.6 | — |
What defines Brownsville-Harlingen, TX?
Brownsville-Harlingen, TX flipped to Republicans in 2024 after voting the other way in 2020. It has a majority-minority electorate where racial demographics are the primary driver of partisan lean.
Constituent Counties
Similar metro areas
Counties in Brownsville-Harlingen, TX
| County | Pop. | Margin | Dem | Rep | Total | Share |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Cameron | 426K | R+5.8 | 54,258 | 60,991 | 116,153 | 100.0% |
Ask the Historian
Key Insights
- Swung 19.0 points toward Republican between 2020 and 2024
- Split-ticket voting in 2024: Different parties won President and Senate
- Won by both parties in recent history — Democrats most recently in 2020, Republicans in 2024
Who Lives Here
| Group | Local | National |
|---|---|---|
▶Hispanic / Latino(17) | 89.3% | 19.3% |
▶White (Non-Hispanic)(12) | 8.7% | 57.4% |
▶Asian(6) | 0.8% | 6.0% |
▶Black / African American(3) | 0.6% | 12.2% |
▶Native American / Alaska Native(5) | 0.5% | 0.9% |
▶Middle Eastern / North African(5) | 0.1% | 0.9% |
▶Native Hawaiian / Pacific Islander(2) | 0.1% | 0.2% |
Religious Adherents
Catholic-Evangelical edge: +39.0pp (vs national 4.5pp). A strongly Catholic-leaning religious profile, which nationally correlates with Democratic-leaning urban and suburban communities.
| Tradition | % Pop | % Adherents | US Pop | US Adherents |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 36.3% | 67.4% | — | — | |
| 12.9% | 24.0% | — | — | |
| 3.3% | 6.2% | — | — | |
| 1.2% | 2.2% | — | — | |
LDS (Mormon) | 1.2% | 2.2% | — | — |
| 0.1% | 0.2% | — | — | |
Non-religiousPopulation | 46.1% | — | — | — |
Who lives in the Brownsville-Harlingen, TX metro area? 426,120 residents across 1 counties.
Demographics
22% of adults hold a bachelor's degree — 11pp below the national average. Places with similar education levels vote R+9 on average nationally.
Scale, voting-age share, and this geography's footprint inside the national electorate.
Income, attainment, and ownership indicators that often shape coalition structure and turnout behavior.
Age structure, language use, and nativity signals that explain how this geography differs from state and nation.
Turnout in Brownsville-Harlingen, TX
How competitive is Brownsville-Harlingen, TX?
Do voters in Brownsville-Harlingen, TX split their tickets?
| Offices | Margin A | Margin B | Split |
|---|---|---|---|
| President vs Senate | R+5.8 | D+4.3 | 10.1pp |