How did Winchester, VA-WV vote in the 2024 presidential election?

Winchester, VA-WV voted Republican in 2024 with a margin of R+27.2. Kamala D Harris received 26,628 votes and Donald Trump received 46,833 out of 74,382 total votes cast, a 1.7-point shift toward Republicans from 2020.

What is Winchester, VA-WV's political history?

Winchester, VA-WV has 40 presidential elections on record, spanning 1868 to 2024. It has voted Republican in every presidential election since 1968. The largest single-election swing was 43.3 points in 1932.

What are the demographics of Winchester, VA-WV?

Winchester, VA-WV has a population of 146,386 according to the 2020 Census. The racial composition is 76.9% non-Hispanic white, 12.4% Hispanic, 4.6% Black. About 30% of residents hold a bachelor's degree or higher. Median household income is $85,275.

Which places are most similar to Winchester, VA-WV?

Based on demographic and electoral similarity analysis, the three most similar metro areas to Winchester, VA-WV are Hagerstown-Martinsburg, MD-WV, Chattanooga, TN-GA, Allentown-Bethlehem-Easton, PA-NJ. Similarity is computed using a vector embedding of demographic, economic, and electoral characteristics.

Winchester, VA-WV

Latest: 2024↓ R+1.7 vs 2020

Safe Republican — 146K residents — 3 counties

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Race & ancestry

Group	%
▶White (Non-Hispanic)(13)	76.9%
▶Hispanic / Latino(17)	12.4%
▶Black / African American(11)	4.6%
▶Asian(6)	1.7%
▶Middle Eastern / North African(10)	0.3%
▶Native American / Alaska Native(2)	0.5%
Multiracial / Other	4.0%

View full demographics →

Religious adherence

Tradition	% Pop	% Adherents
Evangelical Protestant	17.6%	44.0%
Mainline Protestant	11.4%	28.5%
Catholic	7.0%	17.5%
Other	3.6%	9.1%
LDS (Mormon)	1.5%	3.7%
Black Protestant	0.2%	0.6%
Orthodox Christian	0.2%	0.4%
Non-religious	60.1%	—

View full religion →

Presidential results

Year	Result
2024	Trump+27.2
2020	Trump+25.5
2016	Trump+31.6
2012	Romney+24.2
2008	McCain+17.1
2004	Bush+32.4
2000	Bush+28.1
1996	Dole+18.4
1992	Bush+19.0

View full election history →

Winchester, VA-WV is a metro area that has a population of 146,386. In the 2024 presidential election, it voted Republican with a margin of R+27.2. Akashic Edge tracks 40 presidential elections here, dating back to 1868.

Winchester, VA-WV Presidential Election Results, 1948–2024
Year	Dem %	Rep %	Margin	Swing
2024	35.8%	63.0%	R+27.2	R+1.7
2020	36.3%	61.8%	R+25.5	D+6.1
2016	31.2%	62.8%	R+31.6	R+7.4
2012	36.7%	60.9%	R+24.2	R+7.2
2008	40.7%	57.8%	R+17.1	D+15.4
2004	33.3%	65.7%	R+32.4	R+4.3
2000	34.5%	62.6%	R+28.1	R+9.8
1996	36.1%	54.4%	R+18.4	D+0.6
1992	32.1%	51.1%	R+19.0	D+17.9
1988	31.2%	68.1%	R+36.9	D+9.3
1984	26.7%	72.9%	R+46.2	R+16.0
1980	32.5%	62.7%	R+30.2	R+17.9
1976	43.4%	55.7%	R+12.3	D+34.6
1972	25.9%	72.7%	R+46.9	R+25.4
1968	28.5%	49.9%	R+21.4	R+36.9
1964	57.7%	42.2%	D+15.4	D+24.2
1960	45.5%	54.3%	R+8.8	D+10.1
1956	39.8%	58.7%	R+18.9	R+4.7
1952	42.9%	57.1%	R+14.2	R+25.2
1948	51.9%	40.9%	D+11.0	—

Political Identity

What defines Winchester, VA-WV?

Winchester, VA-WV voted overwhelmingly Republican in 2024. Akashic Edge tracks 40 presidential elections here, revealing how its political character has evolved over more than a century.

Constituent Counties

Open in Cartographer

Similarity Explorer

Similar metro areas

Nearest neighbors matched on the same place-page feature set used across the dossier system.

8 visible matches

Hagerstown-Martinsburg, MD-WV

Small-town rural republican 2

R+30.3

Similarity score95%

Chattanooga, TN-GA

Educated rural competitive 2

R+29.3

Similarity score91%

Allentown-Bethlehem-Easton, PA-NJ

Educated rural competitive 2

R+4.9

Similarity score89%

Sioux Falls, SD-MN

Educated rural competitive 2

R+19.2

Similarity score89%

Cincinnati, OH-KY-IN

Educated rural competitive 2

R+15.8

Similarity score89%

Lewiston, ID-WA

Small-town rural republican 3

R+33.9

Similarity score87%

Paducah, KY-IL

Small-town rural republican 3

R+43.7

Similarity score87%

Huntington-Ashland, WV-KY-OH

Small-town rural republican 3

R+43.4

Similarity score87%

Constituent Geography

Counties in Winchester, VA-WV

2024 presidential results across the counties that make up this geography.

Sort:

County	Pop.	Margin	Dem	Rep	Total	Share
Frederick	95K	R+28.4	18,331	33,117	52,040	70.0%
Winchester City	28K	D+9.8	6,407	5,252	11,822	15.9%
Hampshire	23K	R+62.5	1,890	8,464	10,520	14.1%

3 countiesTotal votes: 74,382

Historian Query

Ask the Historian

Explore Winchester, VA-WV's political evolution with the Historian

“How has the Winchester, VA-WV metro area voted in presidential elections?”

Automated Readout

Key Insights

High-confidence patterns distilled from this geography's election history.

Has voted Republican in the last 5 presidential elections
Latest election (2024) was a Republican landslide with a 27.2% margin
Turnout increased by 3.1 percentage points since the previous presidential election

Race & Ancestry

Who Lives Here

A race-first Census view with ancestry expansion where source coverage is strong enough to support detail.

Winchester, VA-WVCensus ACS 2024Ancestry detail available

Census race profile

Major Census race and ethnicity groups shown as a share of total population.

Expand rows for ancestry detail

White (Non-Hispanic) 76.9%Hispanic 12.4%Black 4.6%Multiracial 4.0%Asian 1.7%Native American 0.5%

Group	Winchester, VA-WV	National
▶White (Non-Hispanic)(13)	76.9%	57.4%
▶Hispanic / Latino(17)	12.4%	19.3%
▶Black / African American(11)	4.6%	12.2%
Multiracial / Other	4.0%	4.0%
▶Asian(6)	1.7%	6.0%
▶Native American / Alaska Native(2)	0.5%	0.9%
▶Middle Eastern / North African(10)	0.3%	0.9%

Method notes

Census treats race and Hispanic/Latino origin as separate questions. Race categories other than Hispanic reflect total populations (small Hispanic overlap in Black, Asian, AIAN, NHPI). “Multiracial / Other” is derived as a non-overlapping remainder.

Click rows to expand ancestry detail. Ancestry from ACS B04006, B03001, B02020, B02016. Totals may differ from race — individuals can report multiple ancestries.

Black / African American (estimated remainder) is derived as Black population share minus reported Sub-Saharan African and West Indian ancestry. It is shown as an estimated ancestry detail, not a standalone Census ancestry category.

MENA estimated from ancestry reporting — Census does not have a separate MENA race category. Not shown in bar (overlaps with other race groups).

Religious Adherents

Population that are religious adherents:

39.9%(58.4K people)

U.S. Religion Census 2020

Browse all religions

Catholic-Evangelical edge: -31.0pp (vs national 4.5pp). A strongly Evangelical-leaning religious profile, which nationally correlates with Republican-leaning rural and exurban communities.

Tradition	% Pop	% Adherents	US Pop	US Adherents
Evangelical Protestant	17.6%	44.0%	—	—
Mainline Protestant	11.4%	28.5%	—	—
Catholic	7.0%	17.5%	—	—
Other	3.6%	9.1%	—	—
LDS (Mormon)	1.5%	3.7%	—	—
Black Protestant	0.2%	0.6%	—	—
Orthodox Christian	0.2%	0.4%	—	—
Non-religiousPopulation	60.1%	—	—	—

Click the chevron to expand denominations. Tradition and denomination rows label both share of total population and share of all religious adherents. Non-religious is shown as a share of total population only.

Who lives in the Winchester, VA-WV metro area? 146,386 residents across 3 counties.

Demographic Comparison

Demographics

Read this geography's profile in three layers: local, state (where available), and national baseline.

Winchester, VA-WV vs National146K residents

Population & electorate

Scale, voting-age share, and this geography's footprint inside the national electorate.

Total population

Local vs state vs U.S.

146K

local

146KNational 334.9M

Share of U.S. population

Local vs state vs U.S.

0.04%

local

0.04%National 100%

Voting-age population

Local vs state vs U.S.

76.0%

local

76.0%National 75.7%

Economic profile

Income, attainment, and ownership indicators that often shape coalition structure and turnout behavior.

Median household income

Local vs state vs U.S.

$85,275

local

$85,275National $83,960

Poverty rate

Local vs state vs U.S.

10.6%

local

10.6%National 12.5%

College degree

Local vs state vs U.S.

29.6%

local

29.6%National 35.6%

Homeownership

Local vs state vs U.S.

72.5%

local

72.5%National 65.2%

Community profile

Age structure, language use, and nativity signals that explain how this geography differs from state and nation.

Median age

Local vs state vs U.S.

41.3 yrs

local

41.3 yrsNational 39.1 yrs

Age 18–29

Local vs state vs U.S.

13.8%

local

13.8%National 15.7%

Age 65+

Local vs state vs U.S.

19.3%

local

19.3%National 17.0%

Foreign born

Local vs state vs U.S.

7.6%

local

7.6%National 14.1%

Non-English at home

Local vs state vs U.S.

11.7%

local

11.7%National 22.2%

English only

Local vs state vs U.S.

88.3%

local

88.3%National 77.8%

Voter Turnout

Turnout in Winchester, VA-WV

Estimated using 2020 Census voting-age population.

2024 Turnout

66.8%

vs Previous

+3.1pp

Voting-Age Pop

111,297

History

1988–2024

Competitiveness

How competitive is Winchester, VA-WV?

Safe RAvg margin: R+28.1 (last 3 elections)

2008

R+17.1

2012

R+24.2

2016

R+31.6

2020

R+25.5

2024

R+27.2

Elasticity

14.5pp

margin range

Party Flips

last 30 years

5-Elec Avg

R+25.1

Ticket-Splitting

Do voters in Winchester, VA-WV split their tickets?

Divergence between offices in the same election reveals persuadable voters.

ConsistencyHeavy splitting (0/100)

2024 Office Comparisons

Offices	Margin A	Margin B	Split
Senate vs Governor	R+22.2	R+58.7	36.4pp
President vs Governor	R+27.2	R+58.7	31.5pp
President vs Senate	R+27.2	R+22.2	4.9pp

Average divergence across office pairs: 20.6pp

Containing Geography

Located In

Winchester, VA-WV sits inside these higher-level geographies.

Virginia(State)West Virginia(State)

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