How did Allentown-Bethlehem-Easton, PA-NJ vote in the 2024 presidential election?

Allentown-Bethlehem-Easton, PA-NJ voted Republican in 2024 with a margin of R+4.9. Kamala D Harris received 217,684 votes and Donald Trump received 240,504 out of 463,570 total votes cast, a 3.7-point shift toward Republicans from 2020.

What is Allentown-Bethlehem-Easton, PA-NJ's political history?

Allentown-Bethlehem-Easton, PA-NJ has 40 presidential elections on record, spanning 1868 to 2024. Democrats have won 24 and Republicans 16 of those contests. The largest single-election swing was 47.9 points in 1932.

What are the demographics of Allentown-Bethlehem-Easton, PA-NJ?

Allentown-Bethlehem-Easton, PA-NJ has a population of 873,603 according to the 2020 Census. The racial composition is 67.9% non-Hispanic white, 19.9% Hispanic, 6.0% Black. About 34% of residents hold a bachelor's degree or higher. Median household income is $85,139.

Which places are most similar to Allentown-Bethlehem-Easton, PA-NJ?

Based on demographic and electoral similarity analysis, the three most similar metro areas to Allentown-Bethlehem-Easton, PA-NJ are Philadelphia-Camden-Wilmington, PA-NJ-DE-MD, Providence-Warwick, RI-MA, Davenport-Moline-Rock Island, IA-IL. Similarity is computed using a vector embedding of demographic, economic, and electoral characteristics.

Allentown-Bethlehem-Easton, PA-NJ

Latest: 2024↓ R+3.7 vs 2020

Competitive — shifted 3.7pp toward Republicans in 2024 — 874K residents — 4 counties

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POPULATION
874K
COUNTIES
4
PRES MARGIN
R+4.9
2024
TURNOUT
69.2%
MEDIAN INCOME
$85K

Place Story

What defines Allentown-Bethlehem-Easton, PA-NJ

Methodology

Tilts Republican since 2016
- Tilt R
- 3 straight R wins
Competitive with a modest baseline — persuasion matters on the margin.
Biggest swing: D+47.9 in 1932
- 1928 → 1932
Volatile behavior — treat historical margins with caution.
Catholic edge: 31pp over Evangelicals
- 46% Catholic / 15% Evangelical
Correlates nationally with Democratic-leaning behavior.
Ticket-splitting: Senate ran 39.0pp behind Governor
- Divergence 38.9pp in 2002
Persuadable voters present — downballot races can run independent of presidential.

Constituent Counties

Open in Cartographer

Similarity Explorer

Similar metro areas

Nearest neighbors matched on the same place-page feature set used across the dossier system.

8 visible matches

Philadelphia-Camden-Wilmington, PA-NJ-DE-MD

Educated rural competitive 2

D+25.4

Similarity score95%

Providence-Warwick, RI-MA

Educated rural competitive 2

D+9.3

Similarity score95%

Davenport-Moline-Rock Island, IA-IL

Educated rural competitive 2

R+3.1

Similarity score94%

Charlotte-Concord-Gastonia, NC-SC

Educated rural competitive 2

R+1.3

Similarity score93%

Portland-Vancouver-Hillsboro, OR-WA

Educated rural competitive 2

D+29.3

Similarity score93%

Minneapolis-St. Paul-Bloomington, MN-WI

Educated rural competitive 2

D+16.8

Similarity score93%

Omaha, NE-IA

Educated rural competitive 2

R+3.5

Similarity score93%

Kansas City, MO-KS

Educated rural competitive 2

D+2.6

Similarity score93%

Constituent Geography

Counties in Allentown-Bethlehem-Easton, PA-NJ

2024 presidential results across the counties that make up this geography.

Sort:

County	Pop.	Margin	Dem	Rep	Total	Share
Lehigh	379K	D+2.7	96,317	91,207	189,810	40.9%
Northampton	319K	R+1.8	86,655	89,817	178,215	38.4%
Warren	111K	R+20.7	23,318	35,772	60,150	13.0%
Carbon	65K	R+34.8	11,394	23,708	35,395	7.6%

4 countiesTotal votes: 463,570

Historian Query

Ask the Historian

Explore Allentown-Bethlehem-Easton, PA-NJ's political evolution with the Historian

“How has the Allentown-Bethlehem-Easton, PA-NJ metro area voted in presidential elections?”

Race & Ancestry

Who Lives Here

A race-first Census view with ancestry expansion where source coverage is strong enough to support detail.

Allentown-Bethlehem-Easton, PA-NJCensus ACS 2024Ancestry detail available

Census race profile

Major Census race and ethnicity groups shown as a share of total population.

Expand rows for ancestry detail

White (Non-Hispanic) 67.9%Hispanic 19.9%Black 6.0%Asian 3.1%Multiracial 2.6%Native American 0.3%

Group	Local	National
▶White (Non-Hispanic)(13)	67.9%	57.4%
▶Hispanic / Latino(20)	19.9%	19.3%
▶Black / African American(15)	6.0%	12.2%
▶Asian(6)	3.1%	6.0%
Multiracial / Other	2.6%	4.0%
▶Middle Eastern / North African(10)	1.4%	0.9%
▶Native American / Alaska Native(2)	0.3%	0.9%

Method notes

Census treats race and Hispanic/Latino origin as separate questions. Race categories other than Hispanic reflect total populations (small Hispanic overlap in Black, Asian, AIAN, NHPI). “Multiracial / Other” is derived as a non-overlapping remainder.

Click rows to expand ancestry detail. Ancestry from ACS B04006, B03001, B02020, B02016. Totals may differ from race — individuals can report multiple ancestries.

Black / African American (estimated remainder) is derived as Black population share minus reported Sub-Saharan African and West Indian ancestry. It is shown as an estimated ancestry detail, not a standalone Census ancestry category.

MENA estimated from ancestry reporting — Census does not have a separate MENA race category. Not shown in bar (overlaps with other race groups).

Religious Adherents

Population that are religious adherents:

40.0%(349.0K people)

U.S. Religion Census 2020

Browse all religions

Catholic-Evangelical edge: +26.3pp (vs national 4.5pp). A strongly Catholic-leaning religious profile, which nationally correlates with Democratic-leaning urban and suburban communities.

Tradition	% Pop	% Adherents	US Pop	US Adherents
Catholic	18.4%	46.0%	—	—
Mainline Protestant	11.8%	29.5%	—	—
Evangelical Protestant	6.1%	15.2%	—	—
Other	3.2%	7.9%	—	—
Orthodox Christian	0.4%	1.0%	—	—
LDS (Mormon)	0.4%	0.9%	—	—
Black Protestant	0.2%	0.4%	—	—
Non-religiousPopulation	60.0%	—	—	—

Click the chevron to expand denominations. Tradition and denomination rows label both share of total population and share of all religious adherents. Non-religious is shown as a share of total population only.

Explore Catholic adherence nationally

Who lives in the Allentown-Bethlehem-Easton, PA-NJ metro area? 873,603 residents across 4 counties.

Demographic Comparison

Demographics

Read this geography's profile in three layers: local, state (where available), and national baseline.

Allentown-Bethlehem-Easton, PA-NJ vs National874K residents

Population & electorate

Scale, voting-age share, and this geography's footprint inside the national electorate.

Total population

Local vs state vs U.S.

874K

local

874KNational 334.9M

Share of U.S. population

Local vs state vs U.S.

0.26%

local

0.26%National 100%

Voting-age population

Local vs state vs U.S.

76.7%

local

76.7%National 75.7%

Economic profile

Income, attainment, and ownership indicators that often shape coalition structure and turnout behavior.

Median household income

Local vs state vs U.S.

$85,139

local

$85,139National $83,960

Poverty rate

Local vs state vs U.S.

10.2%

local

10.2%National 12.5%

College degree

Local vs state vs U.S.

33.5%

local

33.5%National 35.6%

Homeownership

Local vs state vs U.S.

69.7%

local

69.7%National 65.2%

Community profile

Age structure, language use, and nativity signals that explain how this geography differs from state and nation.

Median age

Local vs state vs U.S.

41.5 yrs

local

41.5 yrsNational 39.1 yrs

Age 18–29

Local vs state vs U.S.

15.1%

local

15.1%National 15.7%

Age 65+

Local vs state vs U.S.

19.3%

local

19.3%National 17.0%

Foreign born

Local vs state vs U.S.

11.0%

local

11.0%National 14.1%

Non-English at home

Local vs state vs U.S.

19.2%

local

19.2%National 22.2%

English only

Local vs state vs U.S.

80.8%

local

80.8%National 77.8%

Voter Turnout

Turnout in Allentown-Bethlehem-Easton, PA-NJ

Estimated using 2020 Census voting-age population.

2024 Turnout

69.2%

vs Previous

+1.9pp

Voting-Age Pop

669,999

History

1988–2024

Competitiveness

How competitive is Allentown-Bethlehem-Easton, PA-NJ?

Tilt RAvg margin: R+3.8 (last 3 elections)

2008

D+9.3

2012

D+2.5

2016

R+5.2

2020

R+1.2

2024

R+4.9

Elasticity

14.6pp

margin range

Party Flips

last 30 years

5-Elec Avg

D+0.1

Ticket-Splitting

Do voters in Allentown-Bethlehem-Easton, PA-NJ split their tickets?

Divergence between offices in the same election reveals persuadable voters.

ConsistencyHeavy splitting (18/100)

2024 Office Comparisons

Offices	Margin A	Margin B	Split
President vs Senate	R+4.9	R+3.4	1.5pp

Average divergence across office pairs: 14.6pp

Containing Geography

Located In

Allentown-Bethlehem-Easton, PA-NJ sits inside these higher-level geographies.

New Jersey(State)Pennsylvania(State)

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